State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 125               
Ray Lopez   DEM   3,303   56.89%   4,215   58.64%
Fred A. Rangel   REP   2,502   43.10%   2,972   41.35%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      5,805      7,187   
Precincts Reported      37   of   60 Precincts      61.67%

[Gass3268]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

35/60 in:

KOSIEROWSKI, BRIDGET
(DEM)
61.88%
    Votes: 4,146
SCAVO, FRANK J III
(REP)
38.12%
    Votes: 2,554

Crisis averted. Whew.

Not only averted, but almost reverting to Obama levels.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

FINAL:

114th Legislative District County Breakdown
KOSIEROWSKI, BRIDGET
(DEM)
62.44%
    Votes: 6,714
SCAVO, FRANK J III
(REP)
37.56%
    Votes: 4,038

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

FINAL:

Tennessee Senate District 32
View County Breakdown
Candidate   Party   Votes   %
Paul Rose   Republican   9,149   83.97%
Eric R. Coleman   Democratic   1,746   16.03%

[Brittain33]

Time for Dems to panic?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Time for Dems to panic?

Depends on which state you care about.

[Doimper]

Rangel (R) is going to surge with the ED vote in Texas, watch that race for a possible upset.

Uh, Lopez is currently winning the e-day vote 67-33 when Rangel needs to win 64% of election day votes to win.

And that's with 38% of election day precincts in.

I apologize, my source was wrong.

lmfao

"I can't believe you've let me down again, ass."

[Brittain33]

Time for Dems to panic?

Depends on which state you care about.

I'm not going to panic about either Tennessee (dead for Dems) or Connecticut (distinctive issues).

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

FINAL:


RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 125               
Ray Lopez   DEM   3,303   56.89%   5,311   58.42%
Fred A. Rangel   REP   2,502   43.10%   3,780   41.57%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      5,805      9,091   
Precincts Reported      60   of   60 Precincts      100.00%

I look forward to Limo's concession speech should he choose to give one.

[ON Progressive]

Just comparing the special election results to 2016/2012 in ME/PA:

ME HD-124 went Democratic by 29 points, which is an 10.9% improvement on Clinton and a 7.6% improvement on Obama 2012.

PA HD-114 went Democratic by 24.8 points, which is a 32.5% improvement on Clinton and even a 6.5% improvement on Obama 2012.

[Zaybay]

LOL

https://twitter.com/jhorvathTT/status/1105646888659939329

Anyway, great results for Dems this week, though we cant really gleam any info from it.

[bilaps]

Just comparing the special election results to 2016/2012 in ME/PA:

ME HD-124 went Democratic by 29 points, which is an 10.9% improvement on Clinton and a 7.6% improvement on Obama 2012.

PA HD-114 went Democratic by 24.8 points, which is a 32.5% improvement on Clinton and even a 6.5% improvement on Obama 2012.

Compare it with special election results now

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

http://Longtime civil rights attorney Solomon Osborne was elected Tuesday by an overwhelming majority
to serve as state representative for Mississippi House District 32 for the rest of 2019.


As expected, the election drew few voters with only 1,066 votes cast. But Osborne was picked by
842 voters or 79 percent, compared with FEMA contractor Troy D. Brown Sr.'s 223 votes, or 21
percent.

http://www.gwcommonwealth.com/news/article_65cff19a-4527-11e9-b86b-4fcd6c02b624.html

[Oryxslayer]

Time for Dems to panic?

Depends on which state you care about.

I'm not going to panic about either Tennessee (dead for Dems) or Connecticut (distinctive issues).

Tennessee isn't even that surprising - as I noted earlier AA turnout plummets outside of November is Shelby for some reason. The dems only got control of the county govt in 2018 for example since elections are held off the general November cycle. So a safe R seat where most dems are AA is still safe. News at 11.

The real seats to focus on if you want to spread "Dems in Disarray" are MN and TX from this week. But Hispanics don't turnout in specials - see the Republican pickup in TX SD19, which while congruous mostly with TX-23 has a whole lot more South Bexar Barrios. So we have MN.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://twitter.com/electionwatchus/status/1105650568813576193

[Boobs]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1105650808773885953

[Oryxslayer]

The accompanying tweet:

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1105650808773885953

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://twitter.com/VVertuccio/status/1105645894031101952

[bilaps]

Wow Dem candidate ran even ahead of Obama. What a hack can't beleive it. It's a safe D seat at the state leg level.

[Oryxslayer]

Another PA Map, this time the accompanying tweet didn't cover any meaningful analysis.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://twitter.com/electionwatchus/status/1105654646411010048

[lfromnj]

Interesting and short twitter thread on PA-114

https://twitter.com/xenocryptsite/status/1105521011674497025

Includes this accounting of 2016 votes showing, erm, discrepancies upballot from the downballot results which are solidly D.

DKE has it as +18 Obama and +8 Trump.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=1371575098

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Dems clearly in disarray after tonight.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

While Texas was a sad underperformance (still obviously held the seat though so good), PA and Maine were awesome. Thrilled about Movita Harrell, wonderful to have a sister of the faith and a powerful inspiration be the first muslim in the PA state house, great job Philly! Also shout out to Maine for a solid victory for my dem bro, and Scranton, yeah! The GOP think they own you know, but these still our streets, our flipping streets, hurrah for Scranton!

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Anyone who thought that Trump almost winning Lackawanna County, Pennsylvania in 2016 was not a fluke has been proven dead wrong today.