It's 2024.
On the heels of an eight-year Trump Presidency, the Democratic Party is confident that the streak of no party serving three consecutive terms in office will continue. Progressives rub their hands together in anticipation. THIS election, they say, will be the one where they finally get their foot in the door.
But as the primary season kicks off, it becomes clear that there is still a major rift in the party between old-school moderates and new-wave progressives. The primaries are marred with controversy and in-party fighting come to a head at the convention. After no clear victor emerges amongst the two leading candidates, a compromise in the form of PQG is chosen. PQG was elected House member for TX-23 in 2022 as a Republican (by far the most liberal Republican in Congress), but was essentially forced from the party for her middling political stances, changing her party registration in mid-2023. The convention erupts into boos and jeers; several state delegations walk out.
"This is bull****," one angry delegate from Minnesota says to reporters, "we don't need another Republican in the White House! A vote for PQG is a vote for fascism."
A journalist informs him that PQG has voted with the Democrats more than any other Republican in the House (54.5% of all votes).
"I don't care," the delegate answers, "she's a DINO. What a travesty."
Meanwhile, 538Electoral follows in Trump's footsteps, appealing to his conservative base and standard Republicans. He has no trouble during the primaries and easily wins the nomination.
As the election nears, it becomes clear that PQG isn't finding acceptance from either Republicans or Democrats. Liberal Democrats balk at her voting record -- she was a lifelong Republican, after all. And Republicans equally distrust her political agenda. Polling consistently predicts that the Republicans will hold the White House for another four years.
Election Night follows her dismal polling; the networks declare 538Electoral the next President of the United States shortly before 9:30pm (right around the same time that PQG calls to concede).
Talk Elections-red bastion states of Washington, Oregon, New Jersey, Delaware, Connecticut, and Rhode Island flip Atlas-blue...err...Talk Elections-blue. There are even a few moments during the night when PQG's margin in California falls below 5.0% (though she ultimately hangs on to win by 7.2%). It is not necessarily because the Republican turnout was extremely high or enthused, but rather because scores of Democrats stayed home, disgusted with the nomination.
Nevertheless, 538Electoral takes the stage to a thunderous crowd of his supporters and celebrates victory, while the Democrats settle in for another four years of a Trumpistic presidency.
538Electoral (R-OH): 402PQG (D-TX): 136--
AndriyValeriovich is able to appeal to on-the-fence moderates and the remaining coalition of blue-dog Dems. They end up swinging to him instead of PQG by a sizable margin.
IOW: PQG spends too much campaign time trying to appeal to the Bible Belt, a region that isn't in love with her liberal Republicanism. Her attempts to capitalize on crossover voters fails.
"Just can't vote for her," said a reliably-Republican 73-year old Arizonan, "she's just too damn liberal for me. I said during the primaries that if Tom Cotton didn't get the nomination, I'd vote for Andriy."
"I won't vote Republican," replied a 20-something grad student at UMass Amherst, "I can't. I don't like either one of them. But he's better than any Republican."
She gets destroyed on Election Night and calls AV shortly before 11:00pm EST to graciously concede.
The shock state of the night is Montana, going to AV by 0.23%. And PQG only manages to win her home state of Texas by 1.02%, thanks primarily to an unexpected Republican surge of the Hispanic vote around Travis County.
AndriyValeriovich (D-UKR): 378PQG (R-TX): 160
