Make an election map between you and the last two posters. (user search)
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  Make an election map between you and the last two posters. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Make an election map between you and the last two posters.  (Read 18053 times)
LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,159
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« on: August 24, 2019, 10:55:53 AM »

D primary



I win the young people vote by a large margin, win Hispanics, young Blacks and WWC vote while Politician consolidate the moderate, black, older and college educated people with a moderate pro-establishment campaign. I lose narrowly in the southwest, while narrowly winning in the mountain west and new england region, and winning big in the most northern states, because of populism.

Politician wins the primary

Politician vs S019

I endorse Politician, and Politician wins quite easily against socially liberal pro-establishment SO19 who can't generate much enthusiasm after the Trump era + fatigue.



Politician 357 EV
S019 181 EV
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,159
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #1 on: August 27, 2019, 08:26:47 AM »

Republican primary



S019 takes most of my voter base early on (establishment, Reaganites, neocons, etc) and I go full libertarian and run a campaign mostly based on total government deregulation of all industries, ending gov subsidies, legalization of all drugs, protection of civilian ownership of any and all weapons, abolishing taxation (except sin taxes on sale of recreational hard drugs) as well as frequently ranting about how race doesn't exist and the government is covering up UFOs and missing persons cases. It doesn't pan out well, I win a handful of libertarian-heavy states in the intermountain west and am crushed everywhere else.

Lakigigar vs S019



Lakigigar (D) - 290 EV, 48.1% PV
S019 (R) - 248 EV, 49.0% PV

Lak focuses on winning over the Rust Belt and East Coast, while S019 goes after retaking areas in the Sun Belt that Republicans had previously believed were lost, as well as expanding the map in the Northeast and Great Lakes. S019 runs a far more energetic campaign, and is able to win the popular vote, however in the end the electoral math ends up working against him, and a few thousand votes in Virginia, Ohio, and New Mexico end up flipping the election in Lakigigar's favor. Despite the win, Lakigigar's campaign is disappointed in not carrying Wisconsin, Indiana, and other northern states, but they did make significant inroads with their demographic base, keeping the margin within 10 percentage points in West Virginia and winning North Carolina outright.

Realistic but I don't understand how i would win NC. I think Democrats there are quite moderate, except for some cities. And I think I would win Colorado and NH. If Indiana and West Virginia is that close, I should also win Wisconsin, but pretty happy with that map. Smiley

In such a scenario, I expect more a map like that.



with a surprise victory in Alaska, and losing Virginia because of a (very) populist progressive message.

Will make a map of Politician, AndreyValeriovich and Hillgoose later.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,159
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #2 on: August 27, 2019, 09:43:06 AM »

Democratic Primary: AndriyValeriovich vs Politician



Politician wins the primary while AV wins the WWC vote, while winning black vote and social conservative Democrats and older Democrats. Politician wins the establishment, hispanics, liberals, college educated whites and young people.

General election:



Politician 407 EV's
HillGoose 131 EV's
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,159
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #3 on: August 27, 2019, 01:15:48 PM »

Well if you would win, your GE map (i still think you narrowly lose Texas, but maybe it's enough to win, especially if Texas is a close race).



No offense to HillGoose but he would be a bad candidate for the Republicans. HillGoose is not your typical Republican, while you would be able to swing populist socially conservative / economically center / center-left / left-wing away from Republicans, just like historically while with Politician as VP be able to hold on to the current Democratic base.

HillGoose would be a Goldwater-like candidate. Someone who shape up the future his party, but not a winnable candidate.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,159
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #4 on: August 27, 2019, 02:11:36 PM »

Two GE maps in the case AV wins the D primary or Politician wins the primary. I announce my candidacy for the Republican Party and run on a hard protectionist, single-payer universal healthcare, pro-life, pro-death sentence, acceptance of LGBTQ candidates and recognizing same-sex marriage, the Green New Deal, building more nuclear energy, rebuilding our infrastructure, decreasing military expense, legalizing marijuana and pardonning criminals, buying Greenland, statehood for Puerto Rico, pro-Russia, anti-China, tough on hard crimes, libertarian on foreign policy candidate, very tough on immigration candidate platform. Basically a modern Theodore Roosevelt or a modern Huey Long type Republican. (i know he was a Democrat).

Lakigigar (Republican) vs AndritValeriovich (Democrat)

I don't know exactly your views, but based on your endorsements and your description socially conservative, economically liberal, it would be a close race. I would immediately tag you with the pro-establishment.



It's probably a weird map, where AV wins mainly blacks, blue dogs, establishment republicans and modern liberals while I win Yang Gang type candidates, Trump Republicans, libertarians, non-partisan progressives / socialists, anti-government dudes and make inroads with hispanics, except in Florida.

AV / Politician 313 EV's
Lakigigar / Gabbard 225 EV's

Lakigigar (Republican) vs Politician (Democrat)

I see Politician as a mainstream establishment liberal



Politician / Jared Polis 269 EV's
Lakigigar / Gabbard 269 EV's

Politician wins because some electors vote against their pledged candidates, and in my case pledge their vote for real conservatives like Evan McMullin, Ted Cruz and Mike Pence, as well as establishment Republicans like Colin Powell
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,159
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #5 on: August 27, 2019, 02:18:59 PM »

Primary between Lakigigar, Politician and AV

AV is Red
Politician is blue
I'm Green



AV wins the Democratic primary with his moderate and socially conservative message. Politician wins in states that favour the establishment while i win in states with many young people, hispanics and anti-establishment sentiment, supported by Sanders and Gabbard mainly.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,159
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #6 on: September 06, 2019, 10:04:34 AM »

Two way primary Peebs and me



Peebs wins Maryland and New Jersey

Democrat Lakigigar
Independent Andriy Valeriovich



Closest states
Wisconsin
Iowa
North Dakota
Pennsylvania
New Hampshire
Connecticut
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,159
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #7 on: September 07, 2019, 10:51:37 AM »

SNJC as my running mate? lol



Muaddib
ReaganClinton



Lakigigar 283 EV's
Muaddib 253 EV's

I would have lost against ReaganClinton in a mini-landslide though. But Laki vs Muaddib is more like Sanders vs Cruz.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,159
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #8 on: September 07, 2019, 11:09:56 AM »

ReaganClinton
Muaddib
Lakigigar



for Belgium
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,159
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #9 on: November 09, 2019, 12:52:52 PM »



Lakigigar runs to my left and wins the primary comfortably, gaining Bernie Sanders' endorsement and receiving the majority of grassroots support.



Following Lakigigar's selection of Tulsi Gabbard as his running mate, ReaganClinton runs as a center-left independent and attracts the support of wealthy suburban Democrats. As no-one gains a majority, the election is thrown to the House, and Muaddib is elected president despite Lakigigar easily winning the popular vote. ReaganClinton becomes the most hated person in progressive circles.



Good prediction. I would certainly not campaign in Florida, North Carolina or Arizona, but choose states like West-Virginia instead.
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