Arkansas

[I’m not Stu]

Will Arkansas trend R, D, or remain stable?

[President Johnson]

I assume it remains stable, with the Republican candidate getting between 58% and 62%.

[I’m not Stu]

Arkansas probably doesn't change significantly.

[RINO Tom]

Arkansas probably doesn't change significantly.

Talkin’ to yourself in this thread?  Lol

[Skill and Chance]

Continues to trend R slowly, but there is a hard ceiling around 63-66% R statewide.  Little Rock did show the Southern cities Dem trend in 2016, so that should also be taken into account even though there's still room for the GOP to gain in the rural areas.

[RINO Tom]

Continues to trend R slowly, but there is a hard ceiling around 63-66% R statewide.  Little Rock did show the Southern cities Dem trend in 2016, so that should also be taken into account even though there's still room for the GOP to gain in the rural areas.

Is there?  The GOP has made almost unbelievable gains in rural areas since 2008, and a lot of the remaining rural vote for Democrats is Black voters.  I think the GOP has almost hit its ceiling in votes for Arkansas.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Continues to trend R slowly, but there is a hard ceiling around 63-66% R statewide.  Little Rock did show the Southern cities Dem trend in 2016, so that should also be taken into account even though there's still room for the GOP to gain in the rural areas.

Is there?  The GOP has made almost unbelievable gains in rural areas since 2008, and a lot of the remaining rural vote for Democrats is Black voters.  I think the GOP has almost hit its ceiling in votes for Arkansas.

Pretty much this. There can't be many more votes for Rs to pick up in AR. I was surprised that it didn't swing even more R than it did in 2016.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I think the ceiling for the GOP in Arkansas is probably a similar margin to Carter '76. Roughly 65-35.

[Adam Griffin]

Democrats definitely still have room to fall among rural whites in AR (especially in the northern and western parts of the state): there's practically no reason why it couldn't vote just like its neighbors to the south and east in terms of white Democratic support.

There's still way more simple Democratic support out of ancestry and tradition going on in AR than I think many people realize.

Obama won white voters in AR by 45 points in 2012; Trump won them by 48 points in 2016. That's not even that big of a swing, and certainly not for a state like AR. A Republican under the right conditions could win them by 60 in the near future (i.e. by margins comparable to its neighbors).

[Del Tachi]

Democrats definitely still have room to fall among rural whites in AR (especially in the northern and western parts of the state): there's practically no reason why it couldn't vote just like its neighbors to the south and east in terms of white Democratic support.

There's still way more simple Democratic support out of ancestry and tradition going on in AR than I think many people realize.

Obama won white voters in AR by 45 points in 2012; Trump won them by 48 points in 2016. That's not even that big of a swing, and certainly not for a state like AR. A Republican under the right conditions could win them by 60 in the near future (i.e. by margins comparable to its neighbors).

Agreed.  If AR Whites voted like MS Whites (90-10 GOP) that would make it almost 70% GOP (77% white electorate * 0.9 = 0.693).

[I’m not Stu]

Will Arkansas whites continue to trend R or not? California and Arizona whites trended D.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Arkansas is probably the most mysterious state of all in terms of trendings.
I wonder how Bernie or O'Malley would have performed.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Will Arkansas whites continue to trend R or not? California and Arizona whites trended D.

And what exactly do California and Arizona have in common with Arkansas...

[I’m not Stu]

Will AR whites trend D like CA and AZ, trend R like AL and MS, or remain fairly stable?

[Tartarus Sauce]

Democrats definitely still have room to fall among rural whites in AR (especially in the northern and western parts of the state): there's practically no reason why it couldn't vote just like its neighbors to the south and east in terms of white Democratic support.

There's still way more simple Democratic support out of ancestry and tradition going on in AR than I think many people realize.

Obama won white voters in AR by 45 points in 2012; Trump won them by 48 points in 2016. That's not even that big of a swing, and certainly not for a state like AR. A Republican under the right conditions could win them by 60 in the near future (i.e. by margins comparable to its neighbors).

Pretty sure you meant Romney.

[I’m not Stu]

Arizona whites trended D. How will Arkansas whites trend?

[MT Treasurer]

It will continue to trend Republican, especially in 2020.