2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Zaybay]

Don’t understand the change in TX-23. Others make sense except that WA-03 should be Lean R, but I guess they’re intentionally being slow at upgrading it because they had it at Solid R for so long.

Will Hurd is up in his internals.

If his internals are really so good, why doesn't he release them? That is the thing that makes me skeptical of claims from Republicans that they will win races like TX-23 and PA-01. What incentive do they have not to show how well they are doing there, in the few places where (allegedly) they could counter the narrative being driven by all the Dem internals?

^
This exactly. I've been hearing all the time how strong these guys are, but there is no real proof to support that. If PA01 and TX23 are so good for the Rs, why no polling?

[IceSpear]

If pundits are going to move races based off "internals", why is NC-07 still safe R?

[GeorgiaModerate]

On TX-23:

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1036271649262325760

[Landslide Lyndon]

If pundits are going to move races based off "internals", why is NC-07 still safe R?

Because Hurd is an Unbeatable Moderate Titan like Comstock.

[Zaybay]

On TX-23:

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1036271649262325760

So basically this is all based on assumptions and not data. Great.

[Pericles]

Will Hurd is not Lean R, the seat is Lean D, if not Likely D.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Will Hurd is not Lean R, the seat is Lean D, if not Likely D.

The only reason I am not sure that is correct is that it is a Hispanic district, and Hispanic midterm turnout is generally horrible. For any other sort of district, with the same PVI, he would be a goner.

[Strong Candidate]

Will Hurd is not Lean R, the seat is Lean D, if not Likely D.

Internal polling by both sides reportedly shows Hurd ahead, and both local and national reporters (ie. not just Dave Wasserman, but also the reporters at the Texas Tribune), as well as local activists, are considering him to be in no worse, perhaps even outright better, shape than Culberson and Sessions. I'd keep it as Tossup, but still. It's entirely possible Hurd wins and both Sessions and Culberson lose.  Also, when people keep saying "if the internals are so good why don't they release them." they should remember that internals are primarily released to attract donations to a race and argue you're worth investing in, which incumbents in competitive seats don't need to do. Also, not all internal polling is made equal; the internals they're seeing are probably conducted by respected firms and are not total junk like the NC-07/ VA-09/NJ-05 polls. It's also not like all reports of internal polling are GOP spin either; Wasserman went on the record saying that internal polling shows Paulsen, Blum and Lewis behind.

[Roblox]

If pundits are going to move races based off "internals", why is NC-07 still safe R?

You see, they just don't want to reveal the shocking truth: unbeatable moderate titan (TM) Will Hurd is leading with 99.9% of the vote. Meanwhile, the remaining 0.1% is simply undecided as to whether or not they will spend election day organizing the annual $100 million dollar parade in Hurd's honor.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/McCormickJohn/status/1036758262413176832

[IceSpear]

Glad to see they're lighting money on fire in a safe D race like AZ-09. As if the GOP is going to win an open seat trending heavily D that Hillary won by 17 points in a year like this. Unfortunately the others look like pretty reasonable choices.

[America needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Glad to see they're lighting money on fire in a safe D race like AZ-09. As if the GOP is going to win an open seat trending heavily D that Hillary won by 17 points in a year like this. Unfortunately the others look like pretty reasonable choices.

[IceSpear]

I can't wait to see MT Treasurer's reaction to Republican strategists thinking AZ-09 is more winnable than IA-01, lol.

[politicallefty]

NJ-03? That pretty much confirms the impending disaster for NJ Republicans. That's the one I really want to see us win from NJ.

[MT Treasurer]

I didn’t know Steve Stivers was an Atlas poster.

[Atlas Force]

Looks like Rothfus has been triaged:

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1036957209425530880

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/alexclearfield/status/1036978400722935808?s=21

LOL @ CA-16, CA-24, and FL-27.

[Politician]

https://twitter.com/alexclearfield/status/1036978400722935808?s=21

LOL @ CA-16, CA-24, and FL-27.

It appears Mr. Stivers wants to set money on fire in blue districts. Maybe he's paying too much attention to RRH's "ratings".

Also, Carol Miller is almost 70.

[CityofSinners]

Politico published their first ratings for this year.

https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/house-senate-race-ratings-and-predictions/

[Gustaf]

They're a bit less afraid of putting seats as lean/likely compared to other raters (is my impression at a Quick glance at least).

[IceSpear]

Those ratings are godawful.  MN-08 more likely to flip than AZ-02 and MN-02?

And they have MD-06, MA-09, IA-02, MI-05, and NH-02 as only "likely D" while MO-02 is "solid R", LOL. Someone should tell Politico it's not a Republican wave.

[Politician]

Those ratings are godawful.  MN-08 more likely to flip than AZ-02 and MN-02?

And they have MD-06, MA-09, IA-02, MI-05, and NH-02 as only "likely D" while MO-02 is "solid R", LOL. Someone should tell Politico it's not a Republican wave.

Politico is basically King Lear if he was paid so you shouldn't be surprised. MA-09? MI-05? LMAO.

[IceSpear]

Jesus, I'm never going to criticize Larry Sabato and Charlie Cook again. Their ratings are like the ten commandment stone slabs compared to this.

[wesmoorenerd]

Jesus, I'm never going to criticize Larry Sabato and Charlie Cook again. Their ratings are like the ten commandment stone slabs compared to this.

Sabato and Cook's House ratings are pretty good right now. Early on, their ratings hadn't quite caught up with the wave yet, but everything looks about right overall.

Their gubernatorial and Senate ratings are still trash, though (although Sabato's are definitely the better of the two).

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Sabato and Cook's House ratings are pretty good right now. Early on, their ratings hadn't quite caught up with the wave yet, but everything looks about right overall.

Their gubernatorial and Senate ratings are still trash, though (although Sabato's are definitely the better of the two).

Yeah, agreed on all points. Also the 538 model is much better now, though initially it was junk.