MS-Chism Strategies (Espy Internal): Espy in the lead, Hyde-Smith in 2nd

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2018/04/03/poll-mike-espy-leading-cindy-hyde-smith-chris-mcdaniel-senate-race/482437002/

Poll was taken before the Mayor of Tupelo announced

Espy (D) - 34%
Hyde-Smith (R) - 27%
McDaniel (R) - 21%

50% needed to avoid a runoff for this special election in November.

Poll was conducted by the Espy campaign

[Free Bird]

Makes sense if there's gonna be a split GOP vote

[tmthforu94]

It would be wonderful to see Hyde-Smith beat out McDaniel for the second spot. Send him to the political graveyard, please.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I really can't see a black man being elected statewide in Mississippi, he may win the first round with a plurality but I see no path to 50% for him in the 2nd round.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I really can't see a black man being elected statewide in Mississippi, he may win the first round with a plurality but I sew no path to 50% for him in the 2nd round.

a la Ossoff?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I really can't see a black man being elected statewide in Mississippi, he may win the first round with a plurality but I sew no path to 50% for him in the 2nd round.

a la Ossoff?

Basically. Maybe an Espy vs. McDaniel runoff could be competitive, but for Espy to win he would have to either; get ridiculously high black turnout and have whites turnout at a low rate, or get high, but reasonable, black turnout and peel off a sicnifigant number of whites. Neither scenario seems likely to me, but he would probably only need about 20% of the white vote to win if there's extremely high black turnout, which a McDaniel vs. Espy runoff could inspire.

[Senator Incitatus]

I really can't see a black man being elected statewide in Mississippi, he may win the first round with a plurality but I sew no path to 50% for him in the 2nd round.

a la Ossoff?

Basically. Maybe an Espy vs. McDaniel runoff could be competitive, but for Espy to win he would have to either; get ridiculously high black turnout and have whites turnout at a low rate, or get high, but reasonable, black turnout and peel off a sicnifigant number of whites. Neither scenario seems likely to me, but he would probably only need about 20% of the white vote to win if there's extremely high black turnout, which a McDaniel vs. Espy runoff could inspire.

A black man, maybe. Not a Democrat anything less than very conservative, though.

[NewYorkExpress]

I really can't see a black man being elected statewide in Mississippi, he may win the first round with a plurality but I see no path to 50% for him in the 2nd round.

I bet you Espy doesn't even make the runoff, as I think most African American voters in Mississippi are smart enough to tactically vote for Shelton in the first round.

This will be a Hyde-Smith/Shelton runoff, or a Hyde-Smith/McDaniel runoff. Either way, Espy finishes in third.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I really can't see a black man being elected statewide in Mississippi, he may win the first round with a plurality but I see no path to 50% for him in the 2nd round.

I bet you Espy doesn't even make the runoff, as I think most African American voters in Mississippi are smart enough to tactically vote for Shelton in the first round.

This will be a Hyde-Smith/Shelton runoff, or a Hyde-Smith/McDaniel runoff. Either way, Espy finishes in third.

Espy is both a better candidate than Shelton (who is a random) and will easily dominate the black vote.