CA-SEN, PPIC: Feinstein +26 in Primary
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Author Topic: CA-SEN, PPIC: Feinstein +26 in Primary  (Read 1691 times)
Interlocutor is just not there yet
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Junior Chimp
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« on: March 22, 2018, 02:47:19 AM »

PPIC
March 4–13 (Last poll Jan. 21-30)
1706 CA adults, +/- 3.4 MoE



Dianne Feinstein: 42% (-4)
Kevin de Leon: 16% (-1)
Undecided/Someone else: 41% (+5)

http://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/s-318mbs.pdf
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jfern
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« Reply #1 on: March 22, 2018, 10:37:14 AM »

Wow, 16% for De Leon is really weak considering that he and Feinstein were the only candidates given as options.
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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #2 on: March 22, 2018, 11:24:53 AM »

Useless poll. Feinstein and de Leon aren't the only ones running and de Leon only is at 16% because he's winning some Republicans, which won't happen when people see the full list of candidates.
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sparkey
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« Reply #3 on: March 22, 2018, 12:24:46 PM »

Useless poll. Feinstein and de Leon aren't the only ones running and de Leon only is at 16% because he's winning some Republicans, which won't happen when people see the full list of candidates.

My thoughts exactly. A more useful poll would include the top 3 Dems and at least some Republicans, although admittedly it is difficult to extract candidates worth polling from the GOP field. What would you think of this list?:
  • Feinstein (D)
  • De Leon (D)
  • Hartson (D)
  • De La Fuente (R)
  • Cruz (R)
  • Eisner (NPP)
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« Reply #4 on: March 22, 2018, 12:48:18 PM »

Useless poll. Feinstein and de Leon aren't the only ones running and de Leon only is at 16% because he's winning some Republicans, which won't happen when people see the full list of candidates.
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #5 on: March 22, 2018, 01:13:16 PM »

A rule change last year cost de Leon the state party's endorsement.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #6 on: March 22, 2018, 02:56:29 PM »

Why don't they poll a full list of the candidates?! This poll is useless.
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ERM64man
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« Reply #7 on: March 22, 2018, 03:00:16 PM »

The only poll with a full list of candidates shows Feinstein +28 over Kalemkarian (R).
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #8 on: March 22, 2018, 05:47:28 PM »

Useless poll. Feinstein and de Leon aren't the only ones running and de Leon only is at 16% because he's winning some Republicans, which won't happen when people see the full list of candidates.

My thoughts exactly. A more useful poll would include the top 3 Dems and at least some Republicans, although admittedly it is difficult to extract candidates worth polling from the GOP field. What would you think of this list?:
  • Feinstein (D)
  • De Leon (D)
  • Hartson (D)
  • De La Fuente (R)
  • Cruz (R)
  • Eisner (NPP)

It's Eisen.

That's a very good point. It's really hard for the pollsters to try to pick some Republicans out of the current field. Wiki says that there are: 5 people without a listed occupation, an author, a veteran (not veterinarian), 2 perennial candidates, 2 business(wo)men, a scientist, and a white nationalist/alt-right activist. None of them aside from Rocky De La Fuente have a wiki page and he only has that because it seems like running for office is his new hobby post retirement. None of these candidates are anybody important. The state party couldn't even drag some old assemblyman out of retirement.

It's not really that great that none of the pollsters are listing any Republicans (aside from that one poll), but none of these people have been doing much. Hell, I'd probably list Alison Hartson ahead of most of these Republicans.

Being on Atlas, we're more aware of these candidates than probably 95% of the people on the street. Most of them have probably heard of Feinstein and a fair number of them have probably heard of De Leon, but I would doubt that anyone could name a Republican running for Senate in California. Hell, I couldn't name any of them and I looked at the wiki page 5 minutes ago. If the pollsters really wanted to mess with the election, they could all choose one Republican and run them as the Republican option in the polls. I'd bet that candidate would do better than most if not all the other Republicans in the field.

There is the route of asking literally every single name, but when most of them are nobodies, I'm not sure how effective that would be. Hell, even Eisen, who I've supported on and off, who is a professor at a UC school has basically no name recognition.

In most elections, there are going to be some people running that get maybe half a percent. Look at the 2016 Senate Primary in CA. The pollsters picked three of the numerous Republicans and ran them. Del Beccaro, Sundheim, and Unz. Unz was polling at about 5% and got 1.2%. Sundheim was polling at about 5% and got 7.8%. Del Beccaro was polling at about 8% and got 4.3%. Phil Wyman, who is not listed in any polling got 4.7% and Greg Conlon, who was not listed in any polling got 3.1%.

Polling for these guys was kind of a crapshoot. So, maybe my bet about pollsters being able to back one might not be accurate. IDK. None of them raised more than $532k compared to Sanchez's $3.2 million and Feinstein's $9.7 million.

Basically it's hard to pick someone to poll for out of a bunch of nobodies.
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ERM64man
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« Reply #9 on: March 22, 2018, 06:13:28 PM »

The only poll with Michael Eisen shows him with 0%.
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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #10 on: March 22, 2018, 06:32:29 PM »

Don't go by Wikipedia, it needs to be updated. The California Voter Information Guide has been published and these are the confirmed candidates for Senate.

Mario Nabliba, Republican
Adrienne Nicole Edwards, Democratic
Kevin De León, Democratic
Roque “Rocky” De La Fuente, Republican
Donnie O. Turner, Democratic
Paul A. Taylor, Republican
Patrick Little, Republican
Jerry Joseph Laws, Republican
Tim Gildersleeve, No Party Preference
Michael Fahmy Girgis, No Party Preference
Don J. Grundmann, No Party Preference
Rash Bihari Ghosh, No Party Preference
John “Jack” Crew, Republican
Erin Cruz, Republican
Herbert G. Peters, Democratic
Gerald Plummer, Democratic
Douglas Howard Pierce, Democratic
Tom Palzer, Republican
John Thompson Parker, Peace and Freedom
James P. Bradley, Republican
Arun K. Bhumitra, Republican
Derrick Michael Reid, Libertarian
Ling Ling Shi, No Party Preference
David Hildebrand, Democratic
Jason M. Hanania, No Party Preference
Alison Hartson, Democratic
Pat Harris, Democratic
Dianne Feinstein, Democratic
Colleen Shea Fernald, No Party Preference
Lee Olson, No Party Preference
Kevin Mottus, Republican
David Moore, No Party Preference

Only 17 of the 32 candidates have a statement in the voter information guide. I have put them in bold, I'm surprised De La Fuente doesn't have one.
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ERM64man
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« Reply #11 on: March 22, 2018, 06:54:38 PM »

Don't go by Wikipedia, it needs to be updated. The California Voter Information Guide has been published and these are the confirmed candidates for Senate.

Mario Nabliba, Republican
Adrienne Nicole Edwards, Democratic
Kevin De León, Democratic
Roque “Rocky” De La Fuente, Republican
Donnie O. Turner, Democratic
Paul A. Taylor, Republican
Patrick Little, Republican
Jerry Joseph Laws, Republican
Tim Gildersleeve, No Party Preference
Michael Fahmy Girgis, No Party Preference
Don J. Grundmann, No Party Preference
Rash Bihari Ghosh, No Party Preference
John “Jack” Crew, Republican
Erin Cruz, Republican
Herbert G. Peters, Democratic
Gerald Plummer, Democratic
Douglas Howard Pierce, Democratic
Tom Palzer, Republican
John Thompson Parker, Peace and Freedom
James P. Bradley, Republican
Arun K. Bhumitra, Republican
Derrick Michael Reid, Libertarian
Ling Ling Shi, No Party Preference
David Hildebrand, Democratic
Jason M. Hanania, No Party Preference
Alison Hartson, Democratic
Pat Harris, Democratic
Dianne Feinstein, Democratic
Colleen Shea Fernald, No Party Preference
Lee Olson, No Party Preference
Kevin Mottus, Republican
David Moore, No Party Preference

Only 17 of the 32 candidates have a statement in the voter information guide. I have put them in bold, I'm surprised De La Fuente doesn't have one.
That is an old poll. Let's wait for another SurveyUSA poll. I can see De La Fuente possibly polling second, behind Feinstein.
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sparkey
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« Reply #12 on: March 22, 2018, 08:18:16 PM »

This would have been a good opportunity for the California Libertarian Party to put forward a credible candidate, so it's disappointing that nobody stepped forward except Reid. I wouldn't be surprised if the CA LP refuses to endorse or promote his candidacy, and he indeed seems to not be on their current (sadly small) candidate list.

Here is my summary of Reid's performance in a Presidential debate in 2015, for anybody interested in what kind of candidate Reid is:
Derrick Michael Reid. Showed up late to the debate and is crazy. NWO paranoia, thinks the CIA may have created ISIS, that sort of stuff. Unnatural body language.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #13 on: March 24, 2018, 06:25:37 AM »

LOL, with 16% de Leon could easily finish behind a somewhat strong Republican candidate. Too bad Californians haven't had enough of Feinstein. She and Pelosi should recognize their time in elected office is over and let young leaders take over.
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