If even as popular a moderate Republican as the war hero Dwight D. Eisenhower could only narrowly defeat Taft for the presidential nomination in OTL, there is no doubt that Taft would prevail over any other candidate for the nomination.
The election in November would be much closer than in OTL--Taft was obviously much less popular personally than Ike, and in addition there was a widespread perception that he wanted to do away with the entire New Deal and return the US to isolationism (though this was actually an oversimplified view of both Taft's domestic and foreign policy views). Nevertheless, given the widespread dissatisfaction with the Democrats (especially over the seemingly endless war in Korea) I think he would probably narrowly defeat Stevenson. (One consequence of the likely narrowness of Taft's victory is that he wouldn't have anything like Ike's coattails--so some Republicans narrowly elected in OTL, like Barry Goldwater in Arizona
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona,_1952 might be defeated.)
Obviously, in view of the cancer that was to be fatal to Taft in 1953, his vice-presidential choice is important. IMO the most likely prospect is William Knowland-- a veteran, relatively young, from the key state of California, a conservative ideologically compatible with Taft, but also acceptable to moderates because he was a Warren supporter and (despite his "Asia First" reputation) a supporter of the Marshall Plan and the North Atlantic Treaty. Indeed, the leading biography of Knowland, alluding to this possibility, is entitled
One Step from the White House.
https://publishing.cdlib.org/ucpressebooks/view?docId=ft4k4005jq&brand=ucpress
