Axios:Pelosi ready to quit if it looks like shed lose the floor vote for Speaker

[Adam Griffin]

Nobody's talking about it yet (in large part because the chances are so remote), but there's a less than zero chance that she could lose the caucus vote, too. Imagine a outside scenario where Democrats pick up something like 80 seats in November: practically none of these people are going to have any inherent loyalty to Pelosi.

If something like two-thirds of these freshmen were persuaded to support another candidate - and add that to the base of ~65 Democrats who voted against her last year - you're less than 20 defections short of a majority.

I'm sure there are also many other incumbent Democrats who - while supporting Pelosi last year - would be all too willing to flip and stick the knife in if a legitimate ouster became feasible.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My big issue with dumping Pelosi is how lousy the alternatives mentioned mostly are. Ro Khanna? Ugh. I suppose Crowley would be acceptable.

[kyc0705]

My big issue with dumping Pelosi is how lousy the alternatives mentioned mostly are. Ro Khanna? Ugh. I suppose Crowley would be acceptable.

Yeah, I've definitely fallen off the Anti-Pelosi train recently, and a big part of the reason is that there's basically no one good to replace her as Democratic leader. She is an enormously effective politician in her own role, and while she's pretty bad with outward optics, she knows how to retain authority within her party. That counts for a lot when it comes to actually setting and executing an agenda.

[DemocraticKing]

Nobody's talking about it yet (in large part because the chances are so remote), but there's a less than zero chance that she could lose the caucus vote, too. Imagine a outside scenario where Democrats pick up something like 80 seats in November: practically none of these people are going to have any inherent loyalty to Pelosi.

If something like two-thirds of these freshmen were persuaded to support another candidate - and add that to the base of ~65 Democrats who voted against her last year - you're less than 20 defections short of a majority.

I'm sure there are also many other incumbent Democrats who - while supporting Pelosi last year - would be all too willing to flip and stick the knife in if a legitimate ouster became feasible.

Delusion.

[Adam Griffin]

Nobody's talking about it yet (in large part because the chances are so remote), but there's a less than zero chance that she could lose the caucus vote, too. Imagine a outside scenario where Democrats pick up something like 80 seats in November: practically none of these people are going to have any inherent loyalty to Pelosi.

If something like two-thirds of these freshmen were persuaded to support another candidate - and add that to the base of ~65 Democrats who voted against her last year - you're less than 20 defections short of a majority.

I'm sure there are also many other incumbent Democrats who - while supporting Pelosi last year - would be all too willing to flip and stick the knife in if a legitimate ouster became feasible.

Delusion.

No. If it's "a wave to end all waves" type situation (however unlikely), a large percentage of freshmen not only will have likely dodged the question during their campaigns or outright said they're not voting for her (Lamb's success has opened Pandora's box), but they won't want that millstone around their necks running in tough races in 2 years' time.

I guarantee you there are also many more people in the current caucus who want her gone but have yet to vote against her because of no viable challengers and/or a fear of her awesome vote-counting skills unveiling even in a private vote who went against her. Selfish ambition is a factor as well: all too many are tired of growing gray while a bunch of octogenarians cling for dear life onto every major leadership position.

If more than 50 seats are picked up (+ natural turnover of safe seats & existing sentiments within the incumbent caucus), she isn't safe. People will smell blood in the water - and she can't punish 100+ representatives for going against her in a leadership vote: ask Boehner how that turned out. 

[DrScholl]

There is no way that she loses the floor vote with a Democratic majority. The thing that most people do not seem to understand is that Pelosi is a strong leader and knows how to get things done so most of the caucus is going to support her because of that. If it hadn't been for Trump being elected she would have stepped aside as leader and she has said as much.

[YE]

I'm not as high as Tim Ryan as I use to be. He can appeal to the Midwest, which is the direction the Dems need to go in the short term, and while has been critical of the DCCC consultant class, he's still a bit more pro-business than I'd like and he flipped from pro-life to pro-choice which just annoys me, also said the Democrats can't just be the party of redistribution of wealth, and said he wanted to lower the corporate tax rate (in his case he was likely referring to the marginal rates which Obama supported as well). I'd prefer him to Pelosi though.

[McGovernForPrez]

It seems to me like she's essentially giving permission for candidates to oppose her. Smart move by Nancy. If voters feel like they have a chance to kick Pelosi out for real maybe they'll feel more comfortable voting for Democrats.

[BuckeyeNut]

Speaker Tim Ryan coming up
Though I'd prefer a Ro Khanna or Keith Ellison I'm fine with Ryan as long as he doesn't try to push the party right  

Ryan's running for POTUS, he doesn't want Speaker.

Ellison, Crowley, or God forbid, Moulton, are all more likely.

I don’t think Ryan’s running for POTUS (Molton on the other hand...) and wouldn’t be surprised to see him in leadership once Pelosi and Clyburn are gone (he won’t be the next Speaker though).  Ellison isn’t gonna rise beyond his current position and seems to be looking to get out of the House anyway.  My guess is that Crowley will become Speaker whenever Pelosi leaves (which probably won’t happen until she dies).  Hoyer may run, but I doubt he’d beat Crowley.  As for Ro Khanna, I doubt he’ll ever be in leadership and it’s just as well.  We don’t want someone who ran as a proudly corporatist #BothSidesDoIt ModerateHero and then flip-flopped on everything for political expediency (not unlike Tulsi Gabbard) to be Speaker.  He’s about as trustworthy as Ted Cruz.

I know Ryan is going to try and run for President. A contact of mine from the Youngstown area got an offer from Penguin PAC -- Ryan's personal leadership PAC -- got an offer to go train state legislative candidates in NH starting this year. It was a three year committment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems will probably have a new Floor leader after Nov, should they win the House.  And Pelosi is only staying in to raise money.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Speaker Tim Ryan coming up
Though I'd prefer a Ro Khanna or Keith Ellison I'm fine with Ryan as long as he doesn't try to push the party right  

Ryan's running for POTUS, he doesn't want Speaker.

Ellison, Crowley, or God forbid, Moulton, are all more likely.

I don’t think Ryan’s running for POTUS (Molton on the other hand...) and wouldn’t be surprised to see him in leadership once Pelosi and Clyburn are gone (he won’t be the next Speaker though).  Ellison isn’t gonna rise beyond his current position and seems to be looking to get out of the House anyway.  My guess is that Crowley will become Speaker whenever Pelosi leaves (which probably won’t happen until she dies).  Hoyer may run, but I doubt he’d beat Crowley.  As for Ro Khanna, I doubt he’ll ever be in leadership and it’s just as well.  We don’t want someone who ran as a proudly corporatist #BothSidesDoIt ModerateHero and then flip-flopped on everything for political expediency (not unlike Tulsi Gabbard) to be Speaker.  He’s about as trustworthy as Ted Cruz.

I know Ryan is going to try and run for President. A contact of mine from the Youngstown area got an offer from Penguin PAC -- Ryan's personal leadership PAC -- got an offer to go train state legislative candidates in NH starting this year. It was a three year committment.

Oh wow...well...in that case...umm...Schiavoni for Congress

[MAINEiac4434]

Maxine for Speaker IMHO

[Joey1996]

If Pelosi doesn’t run as Speaker, Steny Hoyer will take her place, and he’s even more conservative than Pelosi. Not Tim Ryan, not Ro Khanna, not Cheri Bustos, it’ll be either Hoyer or Joe Crowley is Hoyer is having too many health issues. The moderate freshman class Dems will happily vote for Hoyer over somebody like Ellison.

Yeah I really doubt House Democrats would want Hoyer or Crowley if they don't want Pelosi. I don't understand this logic.

[Mr. Morden]

If Pelosi doesn’t run as Speaker, Steny Hoyer will take her place, and he’s even more conservative than Pelosi. Not Tim Ryan, not Ro Khanna, not Cheri Bustos, it’ll be either Hoyer or Joe Crowley is Hoyer is having too many health issues. The moderate freshman class Dems will happily vote for Hoyer over somebody like Ellison.

Yeah I really doubt House Democrats would want Hoyer or Crowley if they don't want Pelosi. I don't understand this logic.

The logic would be that Pelosi has become unpopular, and so they want to get rid of her.  Hoyer, Crowley, or anyone else is currently unknown nationally, and so not yet unpopular.  Though sure, after a few years as Speaker, they'd become unpopular too, just as every Congressional leader eventually becomes unpopular.

[Joey1996]

If Pelosi doesn’t run as Speaker, Steny Hoyer will take her place, and he’s even more conservative than Pelosi. Not Tim Ryan, not Ro Khanna, not Cheri Bustos, it’ll be either Hoyer or Joe Crowley is Hoyer is having too many health issues. The moderate freshman class Dems will happily vote for Hoyer over somebody like Ellison.

Yeah I really doubt House Democrats would want Hoyer or Crowley if they don't want Pelosi. I don't understand this logic.

The logic would be that Pelosi has become unpopular, and so they want to get rid of her.  Hoyer, Crowley, or anyone else is currently unknown nationally, and so not yet unpopular.  Though sure, after a few years as Speaker, they'd become unpopular too, just as every Congressional leader eventually becomes unpopular.

But why would House Dems wants someone who would in essence be a less effective Pelosi...in the case of Hoyer you would have an even older, even more corporate leader. If there is going to be some sort of revolt vote, I would think they would be looking in a completely different direction.

[Mr. Morden]

If Pelosi doesn’t run as Speaker, Steny Hoyer will take her place, and he’s even more conservative than Pelosi. Not Tim Ryan, not Ro Khanna, not Cheri Bustos, it’ll be either Hoyer or Joe Crowley is Hoyer is having too many health issues. The moderate freshman class Dems will happily vote for Hoyer over somebody like Ellison.

Yeah I really doubt House Democrats would want Hoyer or Crowley if they don't want Pelosi. I don't understand this logic.

The logic would be that Pelosi has become unpopular, and so they want to get rid of her.  Hoyer, Crowley, or anyone else is currently unknown nationally, and so not yet unpopular.  Though sure, after a few years as Speaker, they'd become unpopular too, just as every Congressional leader eventually becomes unpopular.

But why would House Dems wants someone who would in essence be a less effective Pelosi...in the case of Hoyer you would have an even older, even more corporate leader. If there is going to be some sort of revolt vote, I would think they would be looking in a completely different direction.

Well, the scenario here would be that the majority of the Democratic caucus *does* want Pelosi, but there are enough holdouts to defeat her on the House floor, because you need an absolute majority of the House voting for Speaker, and aren't going to get any Republican votes.  Maybe it's only like ~20 members holding Pelosi hostage, and these are people who pledged to vote against Pelosi in their campaigns because she's unpopular.  They don't care about who is or isn't "corporate", and so are not going to revolt in the same way if the majority of the caucus is willing to go with Hoyer as a fallback option.

[All Along The Watchtower]

My big issue with dumping Pelosi is how lousy the alternatives mentioned mostly are. Ro Khanna? Ugh. I suppose Crowley would be acceptable.

Ro Khanna is great, and I appreciate the fact that he's my Congressman (I voted for him of course).

Super-sharp guy too, and quite nice in person, but not in a remotely sleazy politician kind of way.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If Pelosi doesn’t run as Speaker, Steny Hoyer will take her place, and he’s even more conservative than Pelosi. Not Tim Ryan, not Ro Khanna, not Cheri Bustos, it’ll be either Hoyer or Joe Crowley is Hoyer is having too many health issues. The moderate freshman class Dems will happily vote for Hoyer over somebody like Ellison.

Yeah I really doubt House Democrats would want Hoyer or Crowley if they don't want Pelosi. I don't understand this logic.

The logic would be that Pelosi has become unpopular, and so they want to get rid of her.  Hoyer, Crowley, or anyone else is currently unknown nationally, and so not yet unpopular.  Though sure, after a few years as Speaker, they'd become unpopular too, just as every Congressional leader eventually becomes unpopular.

But why would House Dems wants someone who would in essence be a less effective Pelosi...in the case of Hoyer you would have an even older, even more corporate leader. If there is going to be some sort of revolt vote, I would think they would be looking in a completely different direction.

Well, the scenario here would be that the majority of the Democratic caucus *does* want Pelosi, but there are enough holdouts to defeat her on the House floor, because you need an absolute majority of the House voting for Speaker, and aren't going to get any Republican votes.  Maybe it's only like ~20 members holding Pelosi hostage, and these are people who pledged to vote against Pelosi in their campaigns because she's unpopular.  They don't care about who is or isn't "corporate", and so are not going to revolt in the same way if the majority of the caucus is willing to go with Hoyer as a fallback option.

Joey, like most Bernie bros, lives in his own fantasy world where everybody is a closet socialist just awaiting the chance to completely upend the entire political system.
He will soon become familiar with the concepts of seniority and inertia.

[Oryxslayer]

There are two scenarios that see the removal of Pelosi. Both are contingent on probably a small democratic majority. A wider margin means that it is both harder to hold a vote hostage, and it hands Pelosi a greater sense of legitimacy.

The first scenario, as Mr. Mordan explains, is one where Pelosi commands a majority, but a unworkable one. Because enough moderates and swing seat congressmen have pledged to not vote for her, she has little hope of ever winning them over. In this scenario, the caucus probably selects someone we know and recognize from dem leadership as a replacement, and gives Pelosi a role of powerbroker behind the throne, probably with a powerful committee chair.

The second scenario is the Progressive caucus holds the dems hostage similar to how the Freedom Caucus does to the Republicans. Now, most of the time when the freedom caucus has done this, it has resulted in nothing but concessions on committees to the Right. However, lets image that the Left wing sticks to their guns. This results in a "crown from the gutter" scenario similar to Ryan's assention. The selected candidate must both appease the left and the rest of the caucus. It also means that the candidate should have some popularity or experience, so that both sides know they can rely on him/her. Said candidate also shpuld be ready to end their carrier, always a hard sell, since the speakership is a capstone job. Its hard to find a individual like this, when Boehner was ousted, Ryan wad the only acceptable candidate. I'm not sure if the Progressive caucus has a candidate like this yet, but, perhaps they do.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My big issue with dumping Pelosi is how lousy the alternatives mentioned mostly are. Ro Khanna? Ugh. I suppose Crowley would be acceptable.

Ro Khanna is great, and I appreciate the fact that he's my Congressman (I voted for him of course).

Super-sharp guy too, and quite nice in person, but not in a remotely sleazy politician kind of way.

He's a tool of Silicon Valley billionaires who started blatant opportunistic pandering to progressives once elected ala Tulsi Gabbard.

[MAINEiac4434]

My big issue with dumping Pelosi is how lousy the alternatives mentioned mostly are. Ro Khanna? Ugh. I suppose Crowley would be acceptable.

Ro Khanna is great, and I appreciate the fact that he's my Congressman (I voted for him of course).

Super-sharp guy too, and quite nice in person, but not in a remotely sleazy politician kind of way.

He's a tool of Silicon Valley billionaires who started blatant opportunistic pandering to progressives once elected ala Tulsi Gabbard.

Mike Honda was an infinitely better Representative, and infinitely more progressive.

[Landslide Lyndon]

My big issue with dumping Pelosi is how lousy the alternatives mentioned mostly are. Ro Khanna? Ugh. I suppose Crowley would be acceptable.

Ro Khanna is great, and I appreciate the fact that he's my Congressman (I voted for him of course).

Super-sharp guy too, and quite nice in person, but not in a remotely sleazy politician kind of way.

He's a tool of Silicon Valley billionaires who started blatant opportunistic pandering to progressives once elected ala Tulsi Gabbard.

Mike Honda was an infinitely better Representative, and infinitely more progressive.

BUT HE WAS ESTABLISHMENT AND SUPPORTED HILLARY.
FEEL THE BERN!!!

[YE]

Mike Honda was good, but c'mon, how is Ro Khanna not be a progressive so far? He might be more progressive than Bernie.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Mike Honda was good, but c'mon, how is Ro Khanna not be a progressive so far? He might be more progressive than Bernie.

He's a Silicon Valley shill whose progressive shifts are obvious opportunism. He's as genuinely progressive as Tulsi Gabbard.

[YE]

Mike Honda was good, but c'mon, how is Ro Khanna not be a progressive so far? He might be more progressive than Bernie.

He's a Silicon Valley shill whose progressive shifts are obvious opportunism. He's as genuinely progressive as Tulsi Gabbard.

I mean is it really any different than Kirsten Gillibrand though who went from a Blue Dogish to a progressive? It's not like he's taking corporate or PAC money, so I wouldn't really consider him a shill. Tulsi Gabbard is someone with questionable ties to right wing India parties and use to vocally oppose gay marriage.