1972 with 2016 Demographics
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Calthrina950
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« on: March 15, 2018, 12:40:46 PM »
As in the title. What would have been the outcome of the 1972 election with present-day demographics? Would Nixon still have won by as large a margin as he did? Or would the election have been closer?
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #1 on: March 15, 2018, 12:55:49 PM »
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #2 on: March 15, 2018, 01:14:33 PM »

What is your logic for this? Are you assuming that the electorate would be aware of Watergate? When I posted, I was going along with the view that it would be the political circumstances of the 1972 election, but with modern demographics.
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #3 on: March 15, 2018, 01:47:57 PM »


Closest states: Illinois, Vermont, New Jersey, Washington
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #4 on: March 15, 2018, 01:52:37 PM »
Quote from: Calthrina950 on March 15, 2018, 01:14:33 PM

What is your logic for this? Are you assuming that the electorate would be aware of Watergate? When I posted, I was going along with the view that it would be the political circumstances of the 1972 election, but with modern demographics.
My logic is that McGovern was trying to appeal to demographics that didn't exist in enough numbers yet, but today they exist in sufficient numbers, hence Clinton and Obama got elected.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #5 on: March 15, 2018, 02:24:51 PM »
Quote from: America's Sweetheart ❤ on March 15, 2018, 01:47:57 PM


Closest states: Illinois, Vermont, New Jersey, Washington

This seems very plausible.
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Computer89
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« Reply #6 on: March 15, 2018, 08:18:30 PM »
Quote from: America's Sweetheart ❤ on March 15, 2018, 01:47:57 PM


Closest states: Illinois, Vermont, New Jersey, Washington


Flip VT and I agree
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TexArkana
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« Reply #7 on: March 15, 2018, 08:30:06 PM »
I think McGovern is a decent fit for modern Vermont, but him doing so poorly nationwide would make it a toss-up.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #8 on: March 15, 2018, 08:31:48 PM »
Quote from: America's Sweetheart ❤ on March 15, 2018, 08:30:06 PM
I think McGovern is a decent fit for modern Vermont, but him doing so poorly nationwide would make it a toss-up.

What would the popular vote look like here?
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Computer89
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« Reply #9 on: March 15, 2018, 08:32:04 PM »
Quote from: America's Sweetheart ❤ on March 15, 2018, 08:30:06 PM
I think McGovern is a decent fit for modern Vermont, but him doing so poorly nationwide would make it a toss-up.

Well its 1972 Vermont with today's demographics.
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bagelman
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« Reply #10 on: March 15, 2018, 10:51:02 PM »
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TexArkana
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« Reply #11 on: March 16, 2018, 12:42:39 AM »
Quote from: Old School Republican on March 15, 2018, 08:32:04 PM
Quote from: America's Sweetheart ❤ on March 15, 2018, 08:30:06 PM
I think McGovern is a decent fit for modern Vermont, but him doing so poorly nationwide would make it a toss-up.

Well its 1972 Vermont with today's demographics.

Well I guess Nixon still cracks 60% there then, since Vermont was overwhelmingly white in 1972 and still is today.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #12 on: March 16, 2018, 05:41:21 PM »
Quote from: Calthrina950 on March 15, 2018, 08:31:48 PM
Quote from: America's Sweetheart ❤ on March 15, 2018, 08:30:06 PM
I think McGovern is a decent fit for modern Vermont, but him doing so poorly nationwide would make it a toss-up.

What would the popular vote look like here?

Repeating my question: What would the national popular vote look like under these conditions?
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