How screwed are the Republicans in future elections?

[Anna Komnene]

If the midterms go as badly for the GOP as it seems they might, that will definitely be bad for Republicans in the near term. Their majority is artificially high due to gerrymandering, and democrats in a lot of areas of the country have made it part of their campaign to undo that. Naturally, if democrats manage to get the numbers to do that in enough places, it will cause bigger problems for Republicans than they already have. With that said, they're obviously not doomed. The thing about fair districts that everyone always fails to mention is that they can swing to either party depending on the times. So if democrats become unpopular (and who are we kidding? policitians are sh**t, so obviously people will find a good reason to dislike dems eventually...) - the GOP will be there to swoop back in.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Demographic changes aren't enough for Democrats to win if Democrats don't give anyone a reason to vote for them.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Then proceeded to win the election. Did you forget about that part?

Anyway it's pretty much a fact at this point that Democratic Hacks have the memory of a goldfish, so we shouldn't be surprise that "Demographics are destiny" nonsense is back, after it had been complelty discredited only just over a year ago.

It really wasn't discredited. He did horrible with younger voters. He just had a polarizing opponent who couldn't galvanize her base the way she needed to. He won because the other side stayed home. LOL. Trump didn't even hit 50 percent in most of the decisive states and he lost the popular vote. And look at the policies he champions, they are all unpopular as hell. He's only President because of the convoluted way we choose Presidents. And one day old crotchety white people won't be enough to save them even if the Dems have lower than expected turnout.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

 Once the trifecta takes effect and nothing happens with a Kennedy retirement until after the 2020 election, and Dems win the House this year, the GOP will be the conservative party. Not the governing party anymore that won 16/20 elections.

And Puerto Rico will give Dems net 5 delegates and the EC will be replaced by proportional voting.

[Xing]

They're definitely in bad shape for the elections this year, but beyond that, it's anyone's guess.

[Gustaf]

I doubt the Republican party dies out but the idea that politics needs to be competitive isn't really correct. The Depression didn't kill the GOP, sure, but it ushered in a long period of dominance for the Democrats.

The current GOP is pushing away lots of voters and there seem to be strong internal forces preventing them from becoming electable.

[windjammer]

Well, the GOP isn't going to die. They got oblirerated under Bush and in 2010 they were back.

However, their victory will probably less spectacular for this reason: they're relying more and more on non college whites and it's not a group that particularly turns out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Idk man, for some reason I doubt the 2022 and 2026 midterms under a president Warren or Biden will be another bloodbath for Republicans.

It won't be Warren: Booker, Biden, Gillibrand or Joe Kennedy III main stream moderate

But 2018 is gonna be a realignment in the House and the lines will be gerrymandered for Dems in 2020 with the gubernatorial pickups.

[Tekken_Guy]

Well, the GOP isn't going to die. They got oblirerated under Bush and in 2010 they were back.

However, their victory will probably less spectacular for this reason: they're relying more and more on non college whites and it's not a group that particularly turns out.

Bush was a mainstream Republican, just a poorly performing president with Iraq and Katrina and the recession. Trump represents a rapid ideological shift of the GOP into a reactionary party. They're not comparable. And I don't think people had trouble with Bush's character.

Also the party divides are becoming more cultural than policy-based. And it's clear that the public overwhelmingly sides with the Democrats in the culture wars (i.e. LGBT, Inmigration, Guns, Me Too). It's a lot harder to get across the divide now than in the Bush era.

Trump has done more damage to the GOP than Bush ever did.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Immigration has changed politics and more Latinos are in the Sunbelt of CO, CA, NV, AZ, NM, IL, NY, FL and NJ. Soon Puerto Rico will become a state.  Trump had to outperform expectations in order to win a second term, due to demographic changes; instead the country got ethics like Hillary. Thus, reverting back to the demographics of how Obama got in 2008 and 2012.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Republicans are certainly in trouble if they continue with the same policies and rhetoric as now. However I do believe the party will change in order to remain competitive. We have certainly seen both parties in worse shape before and both rebounded quite nicely so I am not sure why some on Atlas are so insistent on this not happening now. 

Ultimately when parties are in the minority they change to attract voters that are dissatisfied with the other side. We have see that with Republicans making huge gains among socon leaning Democrats under Clinton and Obama while Democrats have made gains with more upper middle class and college educated suburbanites under Bush and now Trump.

[fluffypanther19]

We are getting way way wayyyyyy ahead of ourselves here

dont we always lol

[Cynthia]

Can we stop making threads like this

[Matty]

This board seriously needs to study history....or at least realize the basic point that in a 2 party system, one party cannot have a monopoly forever, unless you assume that no crisis ever occurs when that party is in power (economic crash, scandal, etc)

If this board was around in 1928, y'all would be saying that the democratic party is "dying"

If this board was around in 1988, y'all would be saying that the democratic party is "dying"

Also...i find it frankly gross that so many people here even welcome the idea that it is a good thing when a nation only has one party to vote for. That is terrible for society. One party dominating everything leads to extremism and crappy lawmaking.

But that's moot point.....it is comical to think that the GOP is on some permanent decline. It literally takes one charismatic figure to flip entire demographics. Bill Clinton caused working class whites to go from Bush +20 to Clinton +3.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Espy, who is running a close race in MS Special is something to brag about.  Winning in AL, with Doug Jones is something for Dems to brag about, and winning PA-18 is something for Dems to brag about. Which doesn't bold well for the GOP in Nov.

[Dr. MB]

Espy, who is running a close race in MS Special is something to brag about.  Winning in AL, with Doug Jones is something for Dems to brag about, and winning PA-18 is something for Dems to brag about. Which doesn't bold well for the GOP in Nov.

Espy needs to go against McDaniel to win. He would lose decisively vs. Hyde-Smith, and the poll showed Hyde-Smith second.