AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)

[Cactus Jack]

It isn't likely, but Lesko is enough of a moron that it's not out of the question. She isn't the disaster tier candidate Montenegro would have been, but she has Saccone potential and non-Mohave Arizona is universally swinging.

[Cactus Jack]

One thing to bear in mind about AZ-08, beyond Hiral being a good draw and Lesko being an idiot, is its trend in 2016. What sets this district apart from AZ-08, beyond the fact that it's almost entirely made up of suburbs, is that it actually swung toward Clinton while PA-18 slammed home for Trump. I'll grant, of course, that AZ-08 is swinging more slowly than the likes of AZ-02 and AZ-06, but it's still swinging and could post some fascinating results in a cycle where the Republicans have consistently been underperforming my colossal margins.

[Cactus Jack]

I find it hard to believe Democrats could win this district, given that, unlike PA-18, it doesn't have any history of supporting Democratic candidates at really any level.

That being said, if Tipirneni somehow does pull off an upset, holy crap are we in for a tsunami in November.

You'd be surprised. Lesko has a reputation for being an idiot (with one article likening her to Betsy DeVos, ye gods and little fishies) and she's currently wrapped up in a pretty deep-running money laundering scandal, for which Tipirneni has been absolutely blasting her.

There's a window here. It's a very small one, but after Alabama and Pennsylvania, I leave nothing out of the question.

[Cactus Jack]

AZ-08, Ohio Predictive Insights: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/382924-poll-republican-holds-10-point-lead-in-arizonas-special-election

Tiperneni (D) - 43
Lesko (R) - 53

If undecideds break for Tipirneni, as has generally been the trend this cycle, that'll put it at 53-47. Just about what I'm anticipating.