AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)

[Jeppe]

Guys, she can do this. We were saying the same thing about Conor just two months ago. Look at the two candidates: Lesko looks like someone who is as crazy and obnoxious as Saccone, and Tipirneri looks promising and hopeful like Lamb. Don't write her off

[Jeppe]

https://youtu.be/3MDXEZyAxtw

Tipernini going for the jugular against Lesko in her attack ad.

There’s apparently a major poll drop on Monday too.

[Jeppe]

We should have an AZ-08 megathread. The race is probably going to heat up soon, Republicans just can’t help but endanger safe seats like this in Trump’s America.

[Jeppe]

Can the mods sticky this thread like they did for MT, GA, and PA special elections?

[Jeppe]

It'll be a shame when Tipirneni loses. She's a really good candidate, just in the wrong district.

Yeah, I wish she were running in Sinema's district instead of Stanton.

[Jeppe]

"The National Republican Congressional Committee on Monday launched a coordinated, $170,000 TV buy with the campaign of candidate Debbie Lesko, according to a source familiar with the purchase. The Congressional Leadership Fund, a deep-pocketed GOP super PAC, is planning to spend about $100,000 on a phone and digital effort aimed at turning out conservative voters. Early voting starts on Wednesday.

The Republican National Committee, meanwhile, is spending about $280,000 on a field operation to bolster Lesko. She’s running to replace GOP Rep. Trent Franks, an eight-term congressman who resigned from his seat last year after reports that he pressed female aides to serve as a surrogate mother. Trump’s political team is also considering a range of options for getting involved in the race."

https://www.politico.com/amp/story/2018/03/27/arizona-special-election-republicans-485678?__twitter_impression=true

[Jeppe]

Harold Supernanny has been comparing Debbie Lesko to Betsy Devos, because she’s very pro schoolchoice.

[Jeppe]

Only 242 early votes so far, but Democrats are ahead by a single vote so far. Good sign, considering that Republicans have a ridiculous registration advantage in the district, and that independents likely lean towards the Democrat, even in this district.

[Jeppe]

How significant is the early vote in Arizona (i.e. is it a major portion of the total vote)?

Yes, a large majority (eyeballing 2016 numbers, looks like around 70%) of the votes in Arizona are early votes. In 2016, Republicans had a 6 point early vote advantage in 2016 and a 10 point early vote advantage in 2012.

[Jeppe]

How significant is the early vote in Arizona (i.e. is it a major portion of the total vote)?

Yes, a large majority (eyeballing 2016 numbers, looks like around 70%) of the votes in Arizona are early votes. In 2016, Republicans had a 6 point early vote advantage in 2016 and a 10 point early vote advantage in 2012.

Is that in the district or statewide?

Statewide. I imagine it was much stronger for the Republicans here, given their huge registration advantage.

[Jeppe]

Right now Republicans have a 48%-28% early vote lead. Let’s do some Bernie-style math to see how Tipirneni can still win this.

Let’s assume that Tipirneni wins 100% of the Democratic early vote ballots and 10% of the Republican early vote ballots. That puts her at 33% of the vote without the independents being factored in. Let’s say that independent early voters break for Tipirneni 60-40 and that puts her at about 48% of the vote to Lesko’s 52%. Let’s assume that Election Day ballots swell up to 20% of the total ballots and that she wins this category 60-40. That would put her at about 50.2% of the overall vote. Basically, she needs everything to go right to win.

[Jeppe]

If Tipirneni does well in AZ-08, she should run statewide. She lives in a very upscale and Republican part of AZ-08, I believe, so finding electable local offices would probably be very hard for her. Either way, Tipirneni and Lesko are probably going to have a rematch in November.

[Jeppe]

Hiram Tipernini. The male version of Hiral.

[Jeppe]

Right now Republicans have a 48%-28% early vote lead. Let’s do some Bernie-style math to see how Tipirneni can still win this.

Let’s assume that Tipirneni wins 100% of the Democratic early vote ballots and 10% of the Republican early vote ballots. That puts her at 33% of the vote without the independents being factored in. Let’s say that independent early voters break for Tipirneni 60-40 and that puts her at about 48% of the vote to Lesko’s 52%. Let’s assume that Election Day ballots swell up to 20% of the total ballots and that she wins this category 60-40. That would put her at about 50.2% of the overall vote. Basically, she needs everything to go right to win.

Tipirneni is getting 15% of Republicans but Lesko is winning 10% of Democrats. Independents are breaking for Tipirneni by 12 points. Tipirneni is tied with Lesko among people who haven’t voted yet, but 16% are undecided and will likely break heavily for her. I think the 48-28 Republican early vote advantage is really misleading and that the final vote margin will be in the single digits.

[Jeppe]

Tipirneni outraised Lesko in the pre-election filing period (early Feb to early April). $431,000 to $364,000. However, Tipirneni had a large COH advantage going into the month of April, $125,000 to $54,000.

[Jeppe]

Emerson: 46-45 Lesko

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/985870667424911362

I know it's Emerson, but yikes...

No way this poll is even remotely true

That would require at least 15% of gop voting Tipinerni

Tipirneni got 15% of Republicans in the other poll from last week but it was counteracted but Lesko winning 10% of Democrats. Maybe Emerson is seeing a much lower rate of Democratic defections to Lesko.

[Jeppe]

In the Emerson poll, Trent Franks has a 24% approval rating and Trump’s own approval rating is only 44%

Tipirneni is very popular in the district, 49/29 favourability. Lesko’s favourability is only 43/45. Immigration, education, and healthcare are all about 1/3 in terms of importance to voters, and Democrats are winning on education and healthcare by strong margins. Tipirneni is a star candidate, it’s too bad national Democrats couldn’t see that until this late into the race.

[Jeppe]

In the Emerson poll, Trent Franks has a 24% approval rating and Trump’s own approval rating is only 44%

Tipirneni is very popular in the district, 49/29 favourability. Lesko’s favourability is only 43/45. Immigration, education, and healthcare are all about 1/3 in terms of importance to voters, and Democrats are winning on education and healthcare by strong margins. Tipirneni is a star candidate, it’s too bad national Democrats couldn’t see that until this late into the race.

I just can't with polling. There is no one universe where this poll and the Post/ABC poll are both accurate.

The district is special though. The resigning incumbent is very unpopular and had a weird sex scandal, the Republican candidate is tied to the incumbent and has her own issues with regards to education and her own election finance fraud scandal, while Democrats are running a strong candidate with strong cross-over appeal to Republicans. She’s been running as a moderate, common sense candidate, focusing on social security, healthcare, and education.

[Jeppe]

In the Emerson poll, Trent Franks has a 24% approval rating and Trump’s own approval rating is only 44%

Tipirneni is very popular in the district, 49/29 favourability. Lesko’s favourability is only 43/45. Immigration, education, and healthcare are all about 1/3 in terms of importance to voters, and Democrats are winning on education and healthcare by strong margins. Tipirneni is a star candidate, it’s too bad national Democrats couldn’t see that until this late into the race.

I just can't with polling. There is no one universe where this poll and the Post/ABC poll are both accurate.

The district is special though. The resigning incumbent is very unpopular and had a weird sex scandal, the Republican candidate is tied to the incumbent and has her own issues with regards to education and her own election finance fraud scandal, while Democrats are running a strong candidate with strong cross-over appeal to Republicans. She’s been running as a moderate, common sense candidate, focusing on social security, healthcare, and education.

Yeah but how do you explain Trump at 44% approval in a district he won by 21? His approval is 40% nationally

Wasn’t Trump’s approval only slight higher in Alabama than in the rest of the country in the special election?

He got 58% of the vote in AZ-08, a 14% decline isn’t that spectacular with turnout differentials and seniors worrying about their healthcare.

[Jeppe]

Tipirneni's monstrous lead among independents is incredible. It's almost 40 points.

[Jeppe]

Early Vote Composition
Republicans = 48%
Democrats = 28%
Independents = 24%

Using breakdowns given by the Lake Research Poll, assuming that undecideds/would-not-says break evenly for both candidates.

Lesko = 48 (0.85) + 28 (0.075) + 24 (0.28) = 48.9% of the vote
Tipernini = 48 (0.15) + 28 (0.925) + 24 (0.72) = 50.5% of the vote.