AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I find it hard to believe Democrats could win this district, given that, unlike PA-18, it doesn't have any history of supporting Democratic candidates at really any level.

That being said, if Tipirneni somehow does pull off an upset, holy crap are we in for a tsunami in November.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I find it hard to believe Democrats could win this district, given that, unlike PA-18, it doesn't have any history of supporting Democratic candidates at really any level.

That being said, if Tipirneni somehow does pull off an upset, holy crap are we in for a tsunami in November.

You'd be surprised. Lesko has a reputation for being an idiot (with one article likening her to Betsy DeVos, ye gods and little fishies) and she's currently wrapped up in a pretty deep-running money laundering scandal, for which Tipirneni has been absolutely blasting her.

There's a window here. It's a very small one, but after Alabama and Pennsylvania, I leave nothing out of the question.

I haven't really been following this race and didn't know about that. Interesting.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

One thing I do wonder about, just a bit, with this district is how predictive the voting history of the district is. With so many retirees who have moved there from other states, it is possible that there are more voters who have cast ballots for Democrats at some point in the recent-ish past than we might expect from looking at past contests in the district.

I still very much doubt this flips, but on the off chance it does, I think that could be a factor.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

There are a number of reasons why I doubt this race is as close as that Emerson poll is showing. That being said, I hope they are right.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I'm still not buying this.  PA-18 was a more D-favorable environment, and Lamb just barely eked out a win there after a great campaign.  I can see it getting into single digits, but it's difficult to see a D victory in this district.

Yep, I'll have to see it to believe it. Dems getting within single digits would be more than respectable for such an old Republican district, but winning seems too far fetched.

If this thing ends up close, or especially if Tipirneni pulls off an upset win, then Schweikert has to be vulnerable next door in the 6th, right?