AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)
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Author Topic: AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)  (Read 50800 times)
KingSweden
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« Reply #375 on: April 24, 2018, 11:06:46 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on April 24, 2018, 11:00:59 PM
Quote from: AtorBoltox on April 24, 2018, 10:59:05 PM

Why is the media so desperate to pretend the blue wave isn't real?

Oh my god. And they have Nate Cohn tweeting about how it's the worst congressional special result for Republicans so far. Get your sh*t together.

When in doubt, Nate Cohn is the one you listen to
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #376 on: April 24, 2018, 11:06:54 PM »
So, if Lesko ends up squeaking this out, makes we wonder if her "Scooter Car" Bill in the Arizona State Legislature from her old LD, arguably her most popular achievement, might have given her enough extra votes in Sun City, compared to elsewhere in the district, when we look at swings in the Senior Vote...

*** Goes back to look at spreadsheets ****    Smiley
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #377 on: April 24, 2018, 11:07:39 PM »
NOVA, I want to thank you for your insightful and incisive coverage of this race. It was wonderful.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #378 on: April 24, 2018, 11:12:03 PM »
Quote from: Webnicz on April 24, 2018, 10:46:49 PM
HUGE!!

Hiral won around 75% of independents.

This means the ABC15/OH poll that suggested Sinema winning 75% of Independents is accurate. wow.

https://twitter.com/econarnold/status/988985401971949568

How is Tipirneni not winning this with those numbers?

85% of Rs, 25% of Is and 5% of Ds for Lesko would suggest she should be around 48% of the vote.

Lesko must have got >90% of the GOP vote; there's conflicting data here it seems.
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Roronoa D. Law
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« Reply #379 on: April 24, 2018, 11:12:16 PM »
Quote from: AtorBoltox on April 24, 2018, 10:59:05 PM

Why is the media so desperate to pretend the blue wave isn't real?
The media always push for a close race for election night ratings. Nobody will watch the news if everybody knows who going to win so they force a close election by changing the narrative of an election. Literally 2016 in a nutshell.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #380 on: April 24, 2018, 11:14:30 PM »
Quote from: Peggy Peterson on April 24, 2018, 11:12:16 PM
The media always push for a close race for election night ratings. Nobody will watch the news if everybody knows who going to win so they force a close election by changing the narrative of an election. Literally 2016 in a nutshell.

I strongly dislike this stuff because it's intellectually dishonest and misleading, but OTOH, if it keeps some people from slipping into complacency, then at least there is a silver lining.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #381 on: April 24, 2018, 11:14:36 PM »
I want my election day votes. Then I can watch Westworld and go to bed.
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adrac
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« Reply #382 on: April 24, 2018, 11:16:10 PM »
Quote from: AtorBoltox on April 24, 2018, 10:59:05 PM

Why is the media so desperate to pretend the blue wave isn't real?

Garbage take
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Pericles
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« Reply #383 on: April 24, 2018, 11:18:23 PM »
There's been a nearly 20 percent swing against the district's partisan lean. This is yet more proof that the blue wave is real.
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Doimper
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« Reply #384 on: April 24, 2018, 11:20:33 PM »
Quote from: KingSweden on April 24, 2018, 11:02:29 PM

He liked one of my tweets once.

I am not known as KingSweden on Twitter.

He followed a new account I had made on Twitter within a week. I have no idea how's he's so good at sniffing out Atlas posters.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #385 on: April 24, 2018, 11:24:22 PM »
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Gass3268
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« Reply #386 on: April 24, 2018, 11:26:01 PM »
First batch of E-Day voting in. Margin will shrink, but not by enough.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #387 on: April 24, 2018, 11:28:14 PM »
So while we are all impatiently awaiting "Election Day" numbers.... here is an updated chart showing current results by AZ LD within CD-08 for EV's and throw in everything from RVs, EVs by Party REG and a couple previous elections of interest....
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #388 on: April 24, 2018, 11:29:07 PM »
Wow, that's a really nice result for the Dems.

And the election day vote only seems to come in now ...

Looks like R+4 in the end. A swing of 17 points towards the Democrats.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #389 on: April 24, 2018, 11:30:07 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on April 24, 2018, 11:26:01 PM
First batch of E-Day voting in. Margin will shrink, but not by enough.



Do we know what precinct(s)Huh?

Could make a big diff if they break it down how it should be done!!!!....    Smiley
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #390 on: April 24, 2018, 11:31:50 PM »
Quote from: NOVA Green on April 24, 2018, 11:30:07 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on April 24, 2018, 11:26:01 PM
First batch of E-Day voting in. Margin will shrink, but not by enough.



Do we know what precinct(s)Huh?

Could make a big diff if they break it down how it should be done!!!!....    Smiley
Just based on a cursory look, they seem to be from strongly Republican precincts
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Sestak
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« Reply #391 on: April 24, 2018, 11:33:04 PM »
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/04/24/us/elections/results-arizona-house-special-election.html

Nyt's results page is giving us a third take, somewhat similar to Cohn's but not quite as definitive.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #392 on: April 24, 2018, 11:34:03 PM »
Quote from: Devout Centrist on April 24, 2018, 11:31:50 PM
Quote from: NOVA Green on April 24, 2018, 11:30:07 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on April 24, 2018, 11:26:01 PM
First batch of E-Day voting in. Margin will shrink, but not by enough.



Do we know what precinct(s)Huh?

Could make a big diff if they break it down how it should be done!!!!....    Smiley
Just based on a cursory look, they seem to be from strongly Republican precincts

How do we know which precincts are reporting?
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #393 on: April 24, 2018, 11:36:39 PM »
Quote from: Roy Moore on April 24, 2018, 11:34:03 PM
Quote from: Devout Centrist on April 24, 2018, 11:31:50 PM
Quote from: NOVA Green on April 24, 2018, 11:30:07 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on April 24, 2018, 11:26:01 PM
First batch of E-Day voting in. Margin will shrink, but not by enough.



Do we know what precinct(s)Huh?

Could make a big diff if they break it down how it should be done!!!!....    Smiley
Just based on a cursory look, they seem to be from strongly Republican precincts

How do we know which precincts are reporting?
Well, go to NYT's map and just move your cursor around until you find a precinct with a lot more votes in compared to the rest. Scroll over to Dusty Trail and compare it to the nearby precincts.

Pretty crude, but it works.
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adrac
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« Reply #394 on: April 24, 2018, 11:38:57 PM »
Quote from: Roy Moore on April 24, 2018, 11:34:03 PM
Quote from: Devout Centrist on April 24, 2018, 11:31:50 PM
Quote from: NOVA Green on April 24, 2018, 11:30:07 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on April 24, 2018, 11:26:01 PM
First batch of E-Day voting in. Margin will shrink, but not by enough.



Do we know what precinct(s)Huh?

Could make a big diff if they break it down how it should be done!!!!....    Smiley
Just based on a cursory look, they seem to be from strongly Republican precincts

How do we know which precincts are reporting?



Nate Cohn seems to know.
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Webnicz
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« Reply #395 on: April 24, 2018, 11:40:43 PM »
Quote from: Roy Moore on April 24, 2018, 11:34:03 PM
Quote from: Devout Centrist on April 24, 2018, 11:31:50 PM
Quote from: NOVA Green on April 24, 2018, 11:30:07 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on April 24, 2018, 11:26:01 PM
First batch of E-Day voting in. Margin will shrink, but not by enough.



Do we know what precinct(s)Huh?

Could make a big diff if they break it down how it should be done!!!!....    Smiley
Just based on a cursory look, they seem to be from strongly Republican precincts

How do we know which precincts are reporting?

One is Wigwam Creek, It was one by leaks but just flipped to Tipernini after it's results were reported
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Holy Unifying Centrist
DTC
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« Reply #396 on: April 24, 2018, 11:41:15 PM »
Nate's tweet suggests that the returns so far have been from places that were slightly less pro Lesko than the overall district.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #397 on: April 24, 2018, 11:42:20 PM »
Pebble Creek, Wigwam, and Pyramid Peak are three of the 18 reported.   
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #398 on: April 24, 2018, 11:45:40 PM »
Quote from: Roy Moore on April 24, 2018, 11:34:03 PM
How do we know which precincts are reporting?

https://recorder.maricopa.gov/precinctsreported
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #399 on: April 24, 2018, 11:47:59 PM »
Good night everyone. If something changes overnight, I will learn in the morning.
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