AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)

[Progressive Pessimist]

I would be okay with a single digit loss here.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/JonSeaton18/status/983885802223517696

Watch this video: https://t.co/d83qbpCHgn

Likely R --> Titanium R

Is that local station owned by Sinclair? If local news were one tenth as exacting on anything Trump said or did 2 years ago, he'd still be back in New York raping models.

Seriously, "she was sued for malpractice!" And? 75 percent of physicians practicing in a low-risk specialty will have been sued by the time they are age of 65 years, 19 percent will have made an indemnity payment. For those in the high risk specialties, 99 percent will have been sued by age 65, and 71 percent will have lost.

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2011/08/19/211634.htm

How was the suit resolved? Dismissed? Economic cost/benefit settlement to avoid greater costs of litigation?

What a half-assed, half-complete, "news" story.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Yeah, medical malpractice lawsuits are very common and part (only a small part, tho) of the reason why health care costs as much as it is.

[NOVA Green]

AZ-08, Ohio Predictive Insights: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/382924-poll-republican-holds-10-point-lead-in-arizonas-special-election

Tiperneni (D) - 43
Lesko (R) - 53

Wow, that is A LOT closer than I expected.

You haven't been following my posts closely then obviously....   

Here's one just from late yesterday Night (PST)

"For example, let's say the current Party Registration stays completely intact through ED and it is a (28 D- 48 R- 23 I) scene we see a "Hi Dem" scene look like a 46.4 D- 53.6 R) win   + 7.2% R

Let's say it is a "LOW DEM" scene based upon the current partisan turnout it looks more like a 44.4%-55.6% Rep Win (+11.2% R)."....

I used a "High-Low" Modeling system with "High" being Dems capture 97% of Registered Dems, 10% of Registered Reps, and 60% of Registered Indies. Low Model Dems capture 95% of Registered Dems and 5% of Registered Reps, and +10% of Indie voters....

Now, remember there are a ton of ballots still out there, and thus far it is looking closer to a 2016 Turnout level than a 2014 Turnout level....

Key item to note about this poll is that it says 75% of the 500 people polled said they had already voted, which is obviously not anywhere close to the Turnout Levels in the District.

The EVs are coming from heavily Republican and older precincts, meaning that the MOE among those who have not yet voted, likely approaches the realm of statistically insignificant.

Additionally with this sample size the MOEs of voters by REP/DEM/IND will likely have much larger variance than my Turnout Modeling and Hi/Lo numbers....

Point I'm trying to make here, although it's really cool to actually get a legit poll out of this Special Election, is that we already have a really decent amount of data already at our fingertips to analyze,  strip mine, and harvest....

Several takeaways from this poll:

1.) Party switching among EVs in CD-08 appears to be a bit higher than I had imagined in my Hi-Lo forecast models, regardless of the MOE statement I made earlier.

Considering the heavily Republican Anglo Senior component present in EV, this is potentially especially significant....

As I mentioned on a previous post, the politics of Health Care and Republican attempt to repeal ACA appears to have created:

       A.)  A backlash against Republicans among Senior Citizens
       B.) Increased national polling support for ACA
       C.) Played a role in the Alabama-SEN and PA-18 Special Elections (High Profile)

2.) We have no real idea about the overall voting preferences among the 65-74% of active registered voters that have not yet cast their ballots... (this was a one day poll conducted yesterday and the last update of "ballots received" by Maricopa County was through EOD 4/10). 

*IF* EV voting Seniors are coming close to maxing out their vote banks in places like Sun City, Sun City West, Pebble Creek, and (Insert list of highest turnout precincts) *AND* these voters are only giving the Pub a relatively narrow lead, *THEN* what happens elsewhere?

3.) This poll should actually be relatively worrying for Republicans, especially considering various Turnout Models and vote breakdowns by Party REG, EV vs ED numbers, etc....

4.) *IF* these numbers are accurate the overall margins start to objectively look more like a Sheriff Joe type voting scene in CD-08 (+5% "Joe") in terms of being potentially a +7% R to +2% D District.... The key difference between Sheriff Joe's election in '16 versus this election, is that he was able to HOLD any major swings among Anglo Voters in places like Sun City West, and similar precincts....

If the Dem candidate in CD-08 is outperforming the opponent of the Sheriff, in what I have termed "a relatively inelastic part of the district", Phoenix we have a problem.....

Anyways just my two cents, back to work on some spreadsheets....

[Tender Branson]

10 point looks OK.

I always thought she'll lose by between 3-10 points, which would still foreshadow a huge blue wave in November.

[NOVA Green]

So, as I have been saying in various means for a bit, the key to following heavily EV Elections is using the data available regarding RV/EV/ED numbers and Party Registration.... maybe even throw in some precinct numbers if one has time.

So here's a basic spreadsheet that includes not only the RV numbers, but also current EV numbers, as available, and also some potential combinations of DEM-REP-IND voters using the Hi-Low Model described.

THIS is what hypothetical final Election results might look like by Party REG breakdown...

So a "Hi Dem" matrix could easily be a +/- 2.5% WIN for either Party, and even a "LO-DEM" Model would still only be a +8-12% Pub Win....

More to come later....

[Brittain33]

Trump is going to cheer so loudly on Twitter when Lesko wins this with a respectable but not big margin as if it means something.

[Jeppe]

Tipirneni outraised Lesko in the pre-election filing period (early Feb to early April). $431,000 to $364,000. However, Tipirneni had a large COH advantage going into the month of April, $125,000 to $54,000.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/LA_Hagen/status/984542350323089408

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Trump is going to cheer so loudly on Twitter when Lesko wins this with a respectable but not big margin as if it means something.

Democrats now 1/6 in congressional races. What a bunch of chockers. Sad!

Saving the seat for Lesko was a true honer.

[NOVA Green]

So what types of breakdown should be looking for on Election Eve in AZ CD-08 (4/23) in terms of updated EV numbers by Party Registration to tell us if this might be closer to a horse-race or a +6-10% Rep win?

I've already provided some estimates as to how the Total Final Partisan breakdown might likely play out once all the ballots are cast with ranges of respective "Hi-DEM" and "LO-DEM" by final registered party composition to include a variety of plausible scenarios.

We will have a much better idea of how this will go down the day before the election, when we will likely see our last EV vote dump by Party Reg.

Key item that I'm not sure of here is if we will have the data on ballots already dropped off rather than mailed in prior to election day, so perhaps someone can help me out on this, since my current understanding is that this is NOT included in the EV breakdown by registration reports that I'm currently polling.

This can obviously make a HUGE difference when it comes to modeling the partisan composition of the electorate for those ballots already cast but NOT showing up on current reports.

So, at this point the special election in AZ is forecast as something like ~330k total votes once all the results are counted, although this might drop a few notches.

2016 GE EV Turnout (Which presumably includes the "drop off" ballots prior to Election Day was around 80% "EV turnout".

Currently my concept is we'll use 80% as a benchmark for the EV/ED numbers, since we won't have all of the data for the late surge of EV numbers over the Pre-Election weekend.

So once we pull the last numbers available of Partisan breakdown of the electorate, how many votes "are already in the bank", and what % of the "Same Day" votes would the Democratic Candidate need to capture to create a marginal win, since the final push on GOTV might well be the make/break point with more infrequent and likely Dem voters?

I introduced a "Blended Model" for Election Eve Models for Party Registration, since the "HI-LO" Dem model doesn't account for what might be minor shifts in Voter shifts by Party REG, Indies flips etc...

Although we had a recent poll of CD-08 that appears to indicate over 10% of Dems and Pubs alike are switching Parties for this election, with Indies going +12 Dem, I'm still a bit skeptical about the MOEs involving party REG, especially considering that this is a relatively older CD by population, AND we haven't really seen evidence of the types of elasticity within this CD to justify changing models based upon one poll.



So here we see a bit of range of potential options, from the RV High Indie numbers, to the mostly current EV numbers to date, and then throwing in some additional models involving Dem numbers ranging from 28-30% and Pub numbers 42-46% on election eve....

If Dems are sitting on a 30-46-24 Model come election eve, it starts to look dicey for 'Pubs.

28-46-26 Model starts to look a bit tougher for Dems...

28-44-28 Model is actually relatively close to the previous model, but slightly more Dem, and both look potentially achievable in the "Mid-Dem Hybrid Model"

28-42-30 is looking fairly more favorable to Dems, and I would be worried as the Pub if I saw these numbers on election eve....

Bottom line Mid Level numbers look potentially achievable for Dems in these Election Eve scenarios (60% of ED Vote).

Take this data for what it's worth, but essentially is an evolving tool that I'm working on to provide us with a greater Macro level understanding of what the potential scenarios we might be looking at come Election Eve....

[NOVA Green]

Let's look at the latest updates for AZ-08 by Arizona Legislative Districts.

Not to play Devil's Advocate with myself, but although the overall math creates various options for a Dem win in the CD, we now have the results for an additional week worth of EV returns....

'Pubs have actually gained in overall vote share compared to Dems within CD-08, and additionally within most LD's located within the district....

Although many of these changes are around the margins, obviously Dems would need to see a bit of a drop in REG PUB % of EVs to make this race closer to a "Jump Ball" scenario, otherwise known as Toss-Up within Political speak....



However the data is not all bad for Dems:

1.) We are finally starting to see a visible drop-off in the most 'Pub LD located within the District (LD-22) where it now only accounts for 40% of the EVs reported within the district....

This was part of the 'Pubs cannibalizing EVs in heavily Anglo, Republican, and Senior communities around Sun City West.

I would imagine that LD-22 would have to drop down to about 35-37% of the total CD-08 Vote to make this a close election.

2.) LD-20 (Most of Glendale within CD-08) has now jumped from 6.8% to 7.4% of the CD-08 TV Share. vs ~9% in '16. THIS is obviously one of the key places for a DEM win in CD-08 since it went +5% DEM against Sheriff Joe vs +5 % REP in CD-08 at large in '16.

3.) LD-21 as I mentioned on a previous post: "How will it play in Peoria"  we see pretty much averaging out to date... If the DEM Can for CD-08 will win, she will need to flip this CD by a few points.

4.) We are starting to see turnout pickup in the mostly Dem LD sections of the district, which is def a positive sign for supporters of the Democratic Candidate...

Obviously these numbers need to pick up significantly by Election Day in order to bag some extra votes to overtake the 'Pub margins elsewhere in the district.

[NOVA Green]

Arizona LD-15 precincts located within CD-08: Social and Political Geography:

Continuing my series on the political and social demographics of CD-08, it's time to take a look at this district, which basically includes six precincts located within the City of Phoenix and accounts for roughly 6% of the total CD-08 vote in a typical General Election.



As we can see from looking at the demographic information by precinct, the fundamental characteristics of this district tend to skew fairly Middle-Aged, with a relatively small Senior population compared to many other parts of the district, Upper Income and Upper Middle-Class, fairly well educated, and a bit more Anglo than the district at large.

Politically, it tends to lean fairly reliably Republican:

2016 Pres: +24 Trump       (+6% D Swing)
2012 Pres: +30 Romney
2012 SEN:  +24 Flake

However, in the 2016 Maricopa County Sheriff race, it was only 48-52 Republican.

Several obvious points here, is that this is exactly the type of area where a Democratic candidate will need to perform well to make this a competitive election since these are precisely the types of voters that thus far in Maricopa County have been resistant to voting Democratic, even as many similar areas in the Country swung heavily towards HRC in 2016.

Let's take a look at how these six precincts voted in the 2016 General Election, as well as Turnout thus far in the 2018 Special Election, AND the 2012 PRES and SEN races....





Thus far we see the most Democratic precinct (Julie) with the lowest % of ballots returned to date for LD-15. This was the only precinct here to vote against Sheriff Joe, and where Trump only received 51% of the vote in 2016, and logically a place where one might expect a Democrat to perform fairly well within this election, considering it skews younger with a relatively large Minority component. Here we have the highest % of 3rd Party defections in 2016, with 10% supporting LIB, GRN, WI, etc.... This same precinct mirrors the overall 2012 to 2016 PRES swings within CD-08 LD-15 (+5% D), so is potentially a good composite of the precinct to look at as we move deeper into 2018, although 3rd Party defections likely played a major role in the numbers being much lower for HRC than the overall precinct profile might suggest.

Julie RV: (26 D- 38 R- 34 I)

The next lowest share of turnout is Creedence, which although it is also heavily younger in population, is much more Anglo than Julie, and also fairly Republican, excepting the '16 Sheriff Race. It is slightly less Republican than most of the other precincts in this portion of the LD, and the only place to swing towards Trump in 2016, which was likely mainly a result of 8% of voters defecting to 3rd Party Candidates.

RV: (22 D- 45 R- 31 I)

Now, lets shift focus to a couple other precincts where we are seeing the highest level of Turnout to date within CD-08 LD-15:

Pyramid Peak:

Accounted for 28% of the vote here in 2016, making it the largest precinct by vote share.

The wealthiest precinct within the district as measured by MHI, with a Median Household Income of $ 108k/Yr, 38% of the Population with at least a 4+ Yr College Degree,and also the 2nd largest Asian-American population within this portion of LD-15 (7%)....

Traditionally heavily Republican and current voter turnout is 37% (2nd Highest within LD-15), is also one of two precincts where we saw the greatest PRES swing '12 > '16 (+9.5% Dem).

As I suggested on previous posts on this thread, places where we saw the greatest '12> '16 Dem swings within CD-08, as well as places where we saw the greatest Trump/ Sheriff Joe swings, might well be the types of places where if a Dem will win an election in CD-08.

RV: (22 D- 48 R- 30 I)

Desert Sage:

This precinct is the one where I am least confident in the Demographic profile, because of US Census tract data doesn't cleanly overlap the way it does in the other precincts here.

Still, the basic demographic profile indicates that it has the 2nd lowest Anglo population within LD-15 (72% Anglo) and the highest Asian-American population (11%)....

Looks to be heavily Middle-Class and Middle-Aged voters with an extremely low proportion of the population aged 60+.

The biggest swings between the PRES numbers '12>'16 occurred here, with a +9.8% Dem swing.

Overall voter turnout to date skews towards the Middle Range of Ld-15 to date, AND it was "Sheriff Joe's" 2nd best precinct (+5.3% R).

It was the most Pub precinct in the '14 Governor race, the most Pub precinct in the '12 Pres race and Flake grabbed 63% of the vote in the '12 SEN race.

Really curious about this precinct, (Although honestly I'm always curious about most precincts in the US), because it is a bit unusual for CD-08 in many ways....

RV: (21 D- 48 R- 30 I)

OK--- we have two precincts left to check on with the Socio-Demographic data overlapped with Electoral Data....

Happy Valley:

The most 'Pub precinct in the '16 PRES GE election (30-64 Trump, 46-54 R Sheriff,). Also the 2nd most Pub precinct in '12, and most Pub precinct in the '12 US-Sen race.

The 2nd wealthiest precinct when it comes to Median Household Income ($104k/Yr). The highest % of population aged 60+ Yrs (24%), and the 2nd highest precinct with people that have a 4+ Year College Degree....

We see the highest % Turnout to Date within the LD, considering that it is the oldest is perhaps not surprising.

We also see only a +2.5% D PRES swing between '12 > '16, with only a 6% 3rd Party defection in '16.

Keep watching the turnout here, since it's one of those places where apparently the older Anglos are extremely heavily Republican, AND the upper-income Middle-Aged Anglos are also not especially "swingy" either.

RV: (21 D- 52 R- 26 I)

Lindner:

The last precinct within the district is a weird hybrid, with the Northern half of the precinct looking much more like Julie, and the Southern half appears to be one of those "Senior Only" type Phoenix area suburban places....

The Northern portion of the precinct tends to be much more Latino than the Southern Portion, and although the overall precinct MHI of $66.5k makes it look like more of Middle-Class community, the reality is that once you factor in the Senior Population the data starts to get murkier.

Overall this precinct looks like one of the least "Trump friendly precincts" (57.9% Trump), and one of the lowest '12>'16 Dem swings (+1.6%), but actually the 2nd best precinct for the Dem running against Sheriff Joe.

The key question here is the balance between the Senior Voters to the South and more varied demographic landscape to the North....

RV: (24 D- 44 R- 31 R)

Wish we had more data points to work with when it comes to a competitive Dem race in CD-08, but hey got to work with what we got, right?



To be continued with LD-20 (Must win big for a DEM in CD-08)....

[ursulahx]

Is there any prospect, however remote, that Tiperneni wins this seat? If not, wake me up in May. A loss, even an impressive one, is still a loss.

[Gass3268]

Emerson: 46-45 Lesko

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/985870667424911362

I know it's Emerson, but yikes...

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Emerson: 46-45 Lesko

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/985870667424911362

I know it's Emerson, but yikes...

No way this poll is even remotely true

That would require at least 15% of gop voting Tipinerni

[KingSweden]

Landline polls may be more representative in a district this elderly.

Still, doubt it’s that close in the end

[Jeppe]

Emerson: 46-45 Lesko

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/985870667424911362

I know it's Emerson, but yikes...

No way this poll is even remotely true

That would require at least 15% of gop voting Tipinerni

Tipirneni got 15% of Republicans in the other poll from last week but it was counteracted but Lesko winning 10% of Democrats. Maybe Emerson is seeing a much lower rate of Democratic defections to Lesko.

[Jeppe]

In the Emerson poll, Trent Franks has a 24% approval rating and Trump’s own approval rating is only 44%

Tipirneni is very popular in the district, 49/29 favourability. Lesko’s favourability is only 43/45. Immigration, education, and healthcare are all about 1/3 in terms of importance to voters, and Democrats are winning on education and healthcare by strong margins. Tipirneni is a star candidate, it’s too bad national Democrats couldn’t see that until this late into the race.

[LimoLiberal]

In the Emerson poll, Trent Franks has a 24% approval rating and Trump’s own approval rating is only 44%

Tipirneni is very popular in the district, 49/29 favourability. Lesko’s favourability is only 43/45. Immigration, education, and healthcare are all about 1/3 in terms of importance to voters, and Democrats are winning on education and healthcare by strong margins. Tipirneni is a star candidate, it’s too bad national Democrats couldn’t see that until this late into the race.

I just can't with polling. There is no one universe where this poll and the Post/ABC poll are both accurate.

[Jeppe]

In the Emerson poll, Trent Franks has a 24% approval rating and Trump’s own approval rating is only 44%

Tipirneni is very popular in the district, 49/29 favourability. Lesko’s favourability is only 43/45. Immigration, education, and healthcare are all about 1/3 in terms of importance to voters, and Democrats are winning on education and healthcare by strong margins. Tipirneni is a star candidate, it’s too bad national Democrats couldn’t see that until this late into the race.

I just can't with polling. There is no one universe where this poll and the Post/ABC poll are both accurate.

The district is special though. The resigning incumbent is very unpopular and had a weird sex scandal, the Republican candidate is tied to the incumbent and has her own issues with regards to education and her own election finance fraud scandal, while Democrats are running a strong candidate with strong cross-over appeal to Republicans. She’s been running as a moderate, common sense candidate, focusing on social security, healthcare, and education.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

In the Emerson poll, Trent Franks has a 24% approval rating and Trump’s own approval rating is only 44%

Tipirneni is very popular in the district, 49/29 favourability. Lesko’s favourability is only 43/45. Immigration, education, and healthcare are all about 1/3 in terms of importance to voters, and Democrats are winning on education and healthcare by strong margins. Tipirneni is a star candidate, it’s too bad national Democrats couldn’t see that until this late into the race.

i highly doubt trump only has a 44% approval here.

can you link the poll crosstabs? i bet they way underpolled republicans

[GlobeSoc]

If we win this, I would have zero doubts about the Ohio special being winnable

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

In the Emerson poll, Trent Franks has a 24% approval rating and Trump’s own approval rating is only 44%

Tipirneni is very popular in the district, 49/29 favourability. Lesko’s favourability is only 43/45. Immigration, education, and healthcare are all about 1/3 in terms of importance to voters, and Democrats are winning on education and healthcare by strong margins. Tipirneni is a star candidate, it’s too bad national Democrats couldn’t see that until this late into the race.

I just can't with polling. There is no one universe where this poll and the Post/ABC poll are both accurate.

The district is special though. The resigning incumbent is very unpopular and had a weird sex scandal, the Republican candidate is tied to the incumbent and has her own issues with regards to education and her own election finance fraud scandal, while Democrats are running a strong candidate with strong cross-over appeal to Republicans. She’s been running as a moderate, common sense candidate, focusing on social security, healthcare, and education.

Yeah but how do you explain Trump at 44% approval in a district he won by 21? His approval is 40% nationally

[YPestis25]

I also think we're forgetting that Emerson seems to be a special kind of bad when it comes to polling. Yes they got Pennsylvania 18th right, but before that their record has been spotty to say the least. I'd much rather put my faith in the Predictive Insights poll.

With that said, if for some reason Tipirneni wins, I'll be happy to admit that I was wrong.