AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)
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Author Topic: AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)  (Read 49358 times)
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« Reply #75 on: April 06, 2018, 03:25:07 PM »

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #76 on: April 06, 2018, 05:55:04 PM »

If Tipirneni does well in AZ-08, she should run statewide. She lives in a very upscale and Republican part of AZ-08, I believe, so finding electable local offices would probably be very hard for her. Either way, Tipirneni and Lesko are probably going to have a rematch in November.

What rough neighborhood does she live in and what rough neighborhood does her opponent live in?

Curious to see to what extent we will see respective "home town" bumps for both candidates, much as we saw in PA-18 for the respective 'Pub and 'Dem candidates in Mt Lebanon and Elizabeth Township.

In a relatively close election this could potentially be the "tipping point".
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« Reply #77 on: April 06, 2018, 06:09:49 PM »


So excited for the "Blue Wave is dead" headlines! *sarcasm*
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #78 on: April 06, 2018, 07:07:13 PM »

So, although I've generally been much more pessimistic about Democrats chances of a pickup in this district than many other Atlas posters on this thread and some others, there are a few items I have been thinking about, indicating that this race might be closer than the political geography might suggest.

1.) The Democratic candidate's themes are heavily focused on two major issues---

    A.) Health Care / Medicaid/Medicare/ Social Security

These are issues where we have seen Democratic Candidates perform especially well among Older Voters, even in "traditionally" heavily Republican regions of the Country, since the 2016 General Election.

We have also observed that support for "Obamacare" is now practically at a record high, and "Health Care" is now emerging as one of the major voter issues in Generic Ballot polls.

IF older Republican Leaning voters within CD-08 start flipping hard Democratic, this will likely be one of the major issues of salience within the district, as these voters consider which candidate they want to represent them in Washington DC.

    B.) Schools/Education

The Democratic Candidate has been directly attacking her Republican opponent for being a key person behind a bill to gut the Public School system in Maricopa County and shift dollars into Private schools as part of a "voucher system".

So here you see a major pitching point towards another key demographic voting bloc within the Suburbs and Exurbs of CD-08: Middle-Class Anglo parents whose kids attend public schools.

Although I haven't run the exact numbers for CD-08 yet, we saw a Democratic Candidate for Superintendent of Public Instruction for Maricopa County perform extremely well in this heavily Republican district.

Interestingly enough Education Policy issues seem to getting much more attention these days, especially in heavily Trump States such as West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Kentucky, as a result of Teachers going on strike for both wages/benefits, but equally importantly to increase overall funding for education that has been gutted in those various states as a result of tax cuts for the rich and corporations.

How will this all balance out in CD-08 where in many ways the interests of Seniors and Middle-Aged Taxpayers with Public School aged kids, diverge on taxation policy, idk???

2.) So far the Early Voting numbers indicate this will be an extremely high turnout special election...

Latest update from 4/5 shows over 83k ballots cast, and we are still almost 20 days out to election day!!!!

I think we had about 332k numbers in '16 for a Presidential GE, so we are already at 25% of the votes in compared to a major flagship election with almost 3 weeks to go....

My initial assumption was that this would be a much lower turnout election, which would give places like Sun City and Sun City West a disproportionate share of the total district vote, as in the '14 AZ Gubernatorial Election where they accounted for a collective 15% of the District Vote, compared to 11% in the '16 Presidential GE.

High Turnout elections in a district like this are generally good news for Democrats....

3.) Looking at the data on the 83k Votes cast thus far and Party breakdown might on the surface look extremely bad for Dems (48 R- 28 D- 24 I), but actually at this point in the Early Vote Turnout is not a bad result at all for anyone rooting for a Dem upset....

Although, I haven't run all of the numbers yet, AZ- SEN Districts 21 and 22 are key in this election, and at this early point (Remember Republicans Vote Early, and sometimes often when they fill in their kids absentee ballots that arrive in the mail while they are away at college), 'Pubs are only +15 in AZ-Senate District 21 (+ 15 Trump '16), and in AZ SEN District 22 up + 23 ( + 28 Trump '16).

So.... although this is still WAY early, we do have almost 84k votes in the bag and the early voter turnout signs don't necessarily look as rosily optimistic as one might imagine....

Coming soon comparison of AZ State Senate/House races by district, since I guess this might be the best way to look at any tea leaves when it comes to overall turnout within the district and potential "enthusiasm gaps" along the way....

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« Reply #79 on: April 06, 2018, 08:01:24 PM »

One thing I do wonder about, just a bit, with this district is how predictive the voting history of the district is. With so many retirees who have moved there from other states, it is possible that there are more voters who have cast ballots for Democrats at some point in the recent-ish past than we might expect from looking at past contests in the district.

I still very much doubt this flips, but on the off chance it does, I think that could be a factor.
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« Reply #80 on: April 06, 2018, 08:53:10 PM »

Yeah, this race isn't going to be close. I think best hope is +8 Lesko, but most likely it ends at +12 Lesko.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #81 on: April 07, 2018, 06:44:06 PM »

Decided to shift focus slightly here, since it appears that we will have some updated results of Early Vote totals by Partisan Registration and Arizona State legislative districts to potentially provide us with some means of trying to interpret early voting results as they roll in from the Great State of Arizona...

People might want to file away or bookmark some of this data as a reference point over the next couple weeks....

So here is a chart I made that shows the current Early Voting numbers by legislative districts compared against the 2016 General Election and 2014 General Election that gives us an idea of the relative vote share by State Districts.



I'll try to keep updating this semi-regularly as we get updated results for EV numbers by district.

Now, the key caveat here is that the numbers for '14 and '16 are the total vote share by district (Including Election Day ballots, as well as all Early Voting ballots) and obviously the numbers on the left are constantly under development.

Although I don't pretend to be a fluent expert on the dynamics of Early Voting in Arizona, but in Oregon that has long been an all Vote-by-Mail State, we typically tend to see a massive surge of ballots show up in the last week on an election, and these frequently tend to come from younger and Middle-Aged voters, Cities/Suburbs, and tend to skew a bit more Democratic than some of the earliest wave of mail-in-ballots.

Thus far we are seeing one major trend in CD-08 vote share that stands out, which is the extremely lopsided numbers from State District 22, which has always been the largest "Vote Bank" in the district, and looking at an off-year election in 2014 tends to have an even heavier weight.

If we look at the next largest district State District 21 we see a relatively stable performance compared to '14 and '16.

Elsewhere thus far we are seeing significant drops in most other State Districts, with the exception of State District 13.

The largest % drop of EV in AZ-08 compared to total Vote Share by State District, is in District 20.

This is perhaps not surprising, considering that those districts that vote early early by mail, versus those areas with much higher rates of "Same Day" turnout are going to experience some variances, but it is still important to continue to observe going forward.

Now, how did these Arizona State Districts vote between 2012 and 2016 for some key races?



So what does this matrix that I generated tell us (If anything) about voting patterns in CD-08?

1.) Look closely at the 2012 US-SEN results by district to see how well a "New Republican Congressional Candidate" performed by State District in CD-08 in what was generally considered to be a favorable Republican election year.

      A.) We see really only three Republican State District strongholds (Districts 1, 15, and 22) and then some relative marginal numbers in Districts 13,20, & 21.

      B.)Some of the margins are explained by a 3rd Party Libertarian Candidate that performed quite well, but Trump still outperformed Flake in most of the State Districts as a % of Total 'Pub Votes, with the exception of State District 15, 29 & 30.

2.) The closest thing we have to a winning Democratic playbook in CD-08 would be the 2016 Maricopa County Sheriff Election where Sheriff Joe won by 5% within the CD.

    A.) We see a massive breakthough in House District 20 (Most of Glendale within the District), that was only +9 Flake in '12, and also where there was a significant drop in 'Pub support between the '12 and '16 Presidential Elections, but basically where even in the '16 Pres and '12 Sen election, only 52% voted 'Pub.

    B.) District 21 is starting to look like increasingly marginal 'Pub territory looking at the '12 US SEN results, Trump only capturing 54% in '16, and Sheriff Joe only winning in a squeaker here....

       As I previously stated, it's all about Peoria, Arizona and considering that Sun City didn't swing hard Dem on Sheriff, means that the part of the district in Peoria and Surprise likely played a key role here.

3.) Ok--- thus far we have seen much higher EV numbers come out of the most heavily Republican State Senate District within CD-08 (District 22) and also District 15 (One of the only other overwhelmingly 'Pub Districts), and much lower EV turnout among the handful of Dem leaning districts, and also within the key District 20, where Dem's need to win big in Glendale to make this anything close to a horserace).

4. Now, what do the early voting numbers tell us from CD-08 compared against previous margins from recent key elections?



So, interestingly enough the total Registered Republican vs Registered Democratic vote margins appear to be weakest in the most Republican Districts within CD-08.

The places where Republican vs Democratic EV turnout compared to previous elections is highest compared to total votes are in the most heavily Democratic or potentially Democratic leaning areas (Where there is much higher % of Same Day voting)....

There could be multiple explanations for the significant decline of Republican EV turnout in the most heavily Republican portions of the County, and certainly one could possibly be the explanation that I suggested earlier in this thread, that one can't automatically assume that Independents tend to Lean Democratic in this particular district, which could obviously perhaps explain why there appears to have been a bit of a collapse in the most heavily 'Pub Arizona districts, but that might well be a bit of a stretch.

At this point it's looking like the 'Pub numbers in State Districts (1,15, and 22) are starting to look fairly weak, district 20 (Must win heavily Dem area) strong, plus some relatively favorable early indicators from district 21 (Must flip Dem area)....

To be Updated and Continued accordingly, but still we now have some additional data points to watch the EV in "Real Time" without knowing how Dems/Reps/Indies will breakdown in final voting numbers within the district....

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« Reply #82 on: April 08, 2018, 03:47:56 PM »

So, started doing a review of some of the demographics of portions of CD-08 to see what if anything that might indicate.

If we look at the preceding information that I posted the other day, the Legislative District 1 portion of CD-08, with generally Democrats only receiving about 30% of the Vote and Republicans generally hitting 65-70%, with the exception of the '16 Sheriff race where it was 40% Dem and 60% Republican.

What is interesting is that despite it being a reliably Republican predominately Unincorporated part of the County, thus far we aren't seeing the Republican Turnout levels, nor turnout advantage that we might expect (This could still all obviously change.)

So here's a map that shows the borders of this area and some basic demographic information (Race/Ethnicity, Median Household Income, % of population 60+ and % of population with 4+ Yr Degrees.



So here several things jump out immediately.... even though this is a Republican stronghold it really isn't that old compared to many other parts of the district. It is generally Pretty Anglo and Upper Middle-Class by income, with a not especially dramatic level of education compared to what one might expect.

Note that the largest precinct within the district by Population, roughly aligns with the Census Data for a tract with a Median Household Income of $102k/Yr,

Also, although the Census tracts don't break down Occupation in as much detail, here is a chart of the Occupations that include the bulk of this portion of CD08.



So here we see an occupation breakdown that leans heavily White Collar and Professional.

Needless to say, these are exactly the types of suburban voters that a Democrat will need to make significant inroads with in order to win the district, considering relative age, occupation, and incomes.

We did see something similar in heavily Republican suburbs of South Allegheny among these types of voters that predominately resisted the major Democratic suburban swings between '12 and '16, so it is not completely out of the question that this could potentially occur within this portion of CD-08.

I would imagine that the Democratic Candidate would need to keep the Republican down to a +10 to +15 point lead in this portion of the district to have a shot at winning in CD-08.

Arizona Legislative District 4:

This is a relatively small sliver of the voting electorate within CD-08 only accounting for 2-3% of the total district vote, and is one of a only a small handful of consistently Democratic voting areas within the district.



Although we don't have a nice occupational chart, we see the occupational sectors skew much for Lower Middle-Class and Working Class occupations such as Sales, Administrative, Food Service and the like and only about 20% of the workforce employed in more "Professional" type occupations such as Management, Business, Computers, Engineering, etc....

So several things stand out here we have a population that includes a significant bloc of Democratic leaning constituencies since this part of the district is only 55% Anglo (Although likely a much larger share of Registered Voters) and a relatively young voting age demographic (32% of the entire population is 18-39 Years).

The key question for Democrats is will the ease of Vote-by-Mail in Arizona, the increased voter registration activities tied to the election to defeat Sheriff Joe, translate into both high turnout levels in the Special Election, and a high level of Democratic support?

There are plenty of other pockets similar to this scattered throughout CD-08 and Democrats will obviously need every vote they can get here.

Right now we're only seeing this Legislative District represent 1.5% of the total Early Vote, far below the 3% from the '16 GE, and Republicans are leaning 37-39% on the EV ballots cast thus far.

Democrats would likely need to hit 60% here to meet benchmarks, with 58% of the voters having rejected Sheriff Joe in November '16.

Will post more on some of the other Legislative Districts when I get a chance....
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« Reply #83 on: April 08, 2018, 07:48:02 PM »

Arizona Legislative District 13:

This one is a bit tricky since it encompasses a wide range of Political and Demographic terrain, but it is one of those areas where Democrats will need to perform well to contest CD-08, since not only does it account for 8-9% of the total CD-08 Vote Share, and although it is probably the 4th most Republican Legislative District located within CD-08, Flake only received 54% of the vote here in '12, "Sheriff Joe" only won here by 2% in '16, and Trump received "only" 56% of the Vote here in 2016, and ran a few points below his CD-08 average.

So what does the Census and Demographic data tell us about this section of the district?

Note: Some of the Census Data I needed to amalgamate by various Block Tracts to try to get the best possible data, and there were a few precincts within the CD-08 legislative portion of the district where it was either too labor intensive to get the data, so please don't view this as the definitive statement on the demographics of all the CD-08 portions of this Arizona Legislative district.



So where to start? We see a handful of heavily Anglo and older precincts (Pebble Creek & Wigwam stand out), a couple precincts that are borderline Anglo majority with solidly Middle-Class household income levels, and a relatively younger population (Desert Vista and Rio Paseo stand out here), and then we have relatively exurban precincts (Waddell and Alsup) which is a place where I am least confident of the demographic data, since I needed to try to consolidate among multiple Census tracts from Citrus Grove, to a couple slivers of Glendale, and then some of the Uninc areas surrounding that don't have any type of CDP designation.....

Now, what do the election results by precinct show us in 2016 for the Arizona Legislative District 13 part of CD-08?



So we see 43% of the 2016 Sheriff results come out of just three precincts that voted for Sheriff Joe, versus 7 precincts that voted for the Democratic Candidate.

Pebble Creek, which must be a Senior Only Community (88% 60+ Yrs) and is 93% Anglo voted +26% Trump, +14% Sheriff Joe, but was +37% Romney in '12 (+11% Dem Pres Swing) accounted for 21% of the CD-08 AZ District 13 vote in 2016....

So interestingly enough these Upper Middle-Class Seniors (MHI of $65k/Yr in an overwhelmingly retirement community) appear to have swung more Democratic than Maricopa at large in the Presidential Election, while still backing the Sheriff.

Swing Chart by Precinct:



If we look at Wigwam (80% Anglo, 33% 60+) and 19% of CD-08 sections of AZ-LD 13, we see Trump only winning by 10 Points, but going 54-46% Dem for Sheriff.

So it is not inconceivable that Anglo Seniors in CD-08 might potentially swing increasingly Democrat in a Special Election where the Democratic Candidate has been pressing hard on Health Care related issues, where much of the dramatic support for ACA has been coming from Seniors that are digging it now that they see how it actually works for them, while the 'Pubs tried to kill ACA (Thanks to Senator McCain for their failure).

The other major Republican precinct within the district is Waddell (67-26 Trump), and 20% of the 2016 vote within LD 13 portion of CD-08 and also where I am least confident of the demographic data presented....

Although it's not really an "Old folks precinct" per se by Phoenix standards, I strongly suspect that the Anglo proportion of the voters are much higher than demographic data indicates, and that there's something about Desert Rats that want to live outside of any type of Municipal boundaries to lower their tax burden vs those that prefer to live within communities that provide a range of services from water/sewage/garbage/law enforcement, etc....

I don't really pretend to have an angle on this precinct, and it's a bit harder to read than most others within the district.

What about the rest of the Legislative District???

We don't really see much in the way of Democratic strongholds, Luke Field stands out as the only HRC precinct within the district, but I didn't run the demographic numbers here, but has long been the most Democratic precinct within the district even in 2014 for the Gov Election where the Dem candidate captured 43% of the Vote against the 'Pubs 50.7%.

Desert Vista obviously stands out here considering not only is it the least Anglo precinct that I pulled numbers from (48% Anglo, 31% Latino, 8% Black, 7% Asian), but also has the highest Median Household Income of any precinct surveyed $95k/Yr, AND 35% of the population is 18-39 Years old.

This precinct went 45-47 Trump, but 56-43 Dem for Sheriff, 42-57 Romney (+17% Dem Swing), and 45-52 Flake in '12.

Rio Paseo in theory be more Democratic than it is (43-49 Trump) but 54-46 Dem Sheriff, but still had the Highest Dem swing than any other precinct within this portion of district (+15% Dem Pres '12 > '16).

So, there's quite a bit more data out for this portion of CD-08, but one of the key things to look at since we don't really have much in the way of "Ancestral Democratic" places to look at here, are those places which swung hardest Democrat between '12 and '16.

Here we see a mixture of the greatest swings happening to largely Anglo and Senior precincts (Pebble Creek and Wigwam), and those places with the highest concentration of Ethnic Minorities (Desert Vista and Rio Paseo), even though there are significant differences in MHI and Demographics between these two Communities.

Although I still haven't fully processed all of the data compiled yet for this district, it's pretty clear that there is a potential path for a Dem in CD-08 Legislative District 13 that expands upon the gains among Senior Anglos, while simultaneously achieving high voter turnout within those precincts that are ground zero of the "New Emerging Democratic Coalition" within the 'Burbs of Phoenix.
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« Reply #84 on: April 10, 2018, 02:29:27 AM »
« Edited: April 10, 2018, 03:36:39 AM by NOVA Green »

Right now Republicans have a 48%-28% early vote lead. Let’s do some Bernie-style math to see how Tipirneni can still win this.

Let’s assume that Tipirneni wins 100% of the Democratic early vote ballots and 10% of the Republican early vote ballots. That puts her at 33% of the vote without the independents being factored in. Let’s say that independent early voters break for Tipirneni 60-40 and that puts her at about 48% of the vote to Lesko’s 52%. Let’s assume that Election Day ballots swell up to 20% of the total ballots and that she wins this category 60-40. That would put her at about 50.2% of the overall vote. Basically, she needs everything to go right to win.

I've been thinking about this post since you first posted it regarding CD-08.  This is certainly a math game that I've been running in my mind for most of the Special Elections that I have covered in more detail (Alabama-Senate & PA-18 spring to mind).

What type of swings might create a winning Democratic number in heavily Trump districts?

In Arizona, we have a ton more detail to work with considering that the State actually provides a much higher level of detail, especially once we start looking at data points such as Party Registration and of course Vote by Mail (VbM) data, which I am well acquainted with as an Oregonian where all of our elections are 100% VbM.

I have a bit of time to think while working my automated line job in the factory while I am just a humble caretaker of the machines, and since I just got off a Mini Vacation for my Wife's B-Day, spent a bit more time than average thinking about updated Election Data for a Monday.

Originally, I was planning to post updated EV numbers by Legislative District (LD) and compare against benchmarks and then maybe add a few updates for the Political Demography for a few other LD percincts located within CD '08, but alas there were no updates today!!!!   Sad

So instead, I decided to take a closer look at the overall turnout numbers within the district to see how well relatively speaking Democrats, Republicans and independents are performing....



So, the obvious starter here is that we see that Republicans overall hold a + 18 R RV "Active Voter" advantage.

Next point we see a PEVL number/percentage, which I believe (And please Atlas crowd-sourcing comrades) correct me if I'm wrong only includes those voters that are eligible for Early Voting.



Ok--- fine dandy and we see that 'Pubs lead +20 % two weeks before the election (Not a particular surprise in this neck of the woods).

Now look carefully at the last two columns and we see that Democrats are tied or slightly ahead of Republicans when it comes to partisan turnout!!!!

The obvious wildcard here is the Independent Vote that has a significantly lower EV "Pre-Approvals" has a much lower voter turnout, but at the same time Indie Turnout appears to be exceptionally high for a Special Congressional Election.

Now--- here's the part that's starting to give me big pause.... although overall turnout is much heavier in Republican Precincts and much lower in what consists of Democratic or potential Democratic flip-precincts, that Registered Democratic voters appear to be more enthused than Republican Voters, even though Democratic Leaning Voters tend to vote much later.\

I haven't really had a chance to delve into the weeds yet, but have inputted data into my spreadsheets by precinct, but here is an official link that shows the overall % voter turnout by precinct.

https://recorder.maricopa.gov/reviewer/default.htm?mapservice=EarlyVotingReturns

IF these numbers are correct, 'Pubs have already cannibalized their EV numbers in their Senior strongholds such as Sun City West and Sun City, OR Seniors 'Pubs in these Communities are turning out in much lower %s than one might expect.

I posited the other day that part of the approval for ACA has occurred especially among Seniors that have grown increasingly accustomed to the concept from the days of the "Death Panels" in '10, and in fact we saw some really interesting swings based upon my precinct level data from Baldwin County, Alabama to the Southwest Pittsburgh 'Burbs of CD-18, that might well indicate that the National 'Pub brand is taking a major hit as a result of their war against ACA.



What is really interesting here within the context of CD-08, is that it potentially appears that there is likely a significant lack of turnout and enthusiasm thus far among traditionally Republican leaning Exurban voters within the district....

These are typically more Middle-Aged Anglo voters with kids in Public Schools, and now an Arizona Teachers Strike is looming because of massive cuts to Public Education under the One Party "Republican" State called Arizona.

These voters are less motivated by partisan ideology than they are by the concept of a functional governing structure that both efficiently provides essential public services and keeps taxes relatively low.

It is interesting to see that in these types of "traditionally" solidly Republican precincts we have not yet seen the types of turnout levels that one might imagine.

Democrats obviously have a huge problem in the "early math" from the district in that thus far overall voter turnout has been anemic in most of the handful of Democratic or Democratic "Anti Sheriff" precincts within CD-08, so obviously GOTV is key if this is going to be anything like the '16 Sheriff Election, where the Dem still lost by +5 % against Sheriff Joe.

Still, as I suggested earlier on a previous post, if Dems somehow win this +23% Trump district, they will need to win Glendale and win it hard....

Ev numbers from Glendale in Legislative District 20 so far look relatively decent for Dems in a +5 % "Anti-Joe" area with overall turnout rates in the 25-30% range in an area where Trump only bagged 52% of the Vote....

Thinking the Dem candidate might need to win this LD 60-40%, not to mention flipping LD-21 by +5% to make this a real horse race.

Ok--- 'nuff for now, but something to put in one's pipe and smoke or vape while we await updated EV results by LD and Party Registration after we get the "weekend Dump" with likely only 8-9 more days of "live action EV returns" before a massive dump on Monday 4/23 (If that) to include all of the last minute voters sending their ballots in by mail so they don't have to deal with the BS of voting in person....

So was planning on doing some election modelling as a final ED % breakdown by Party Registration and what % of voters would be from various parties, how the % of breakdowns would look like by Party to potentially create a 50% +1 map, but I think that will now be saved for another day.

Edit: Dropped the 2016 County Sheriff Numbers from the chart, which is potentially the key indicator to look at within the context of any potential flip within this heavily 'Pub Arizona Congressional District.

2nd Edit: Spreadsheet Filter issues and will update Chart once I get a chance to sort out the spreadsheet data.
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« Reply #85 on: April 10, 2018, 10:04:37 PM »



Watch this video: https://t.co/d83qbpCHgn

Likely R --> Titanium R
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« Reply #86 on: April 11, 2018, 01:00:47 AM »

OK, here are the charts that I was trying to embed in my post yesterday to look at voter turnout by precincts through the April 5th Update (Yes, I know there is a new one out today, but haven't been able to get into updating the spreadsheet yet).

This includes the TOTAL precinct turnout through the 4/5/18 update for precincts where over 48% of the total ballots have been returned to date.

I sorted by % of ballots already received and color coded on the basis of '16 PRES and '16 Sheriff Margins, with the darker shades of Blue being the most Republican in a CD that went + 23 Trump and only + 5 "Sheriff Joe". The white cells in the PRES margins category are for those areas that voted Trump by less than his CD average.



What do these precincts where the highest level of turnout have been thus far in the Special Election share in common?

They are overwhelmingly Elderly, Anglo and fairly heavily Republican as well as concentrated within a relatively small slice of the CD-08 by Population.

The other common denominator is that they did not really experience the significant swings towards the Democratic opponent to Sheriff Joe, that much of the rest of the district did.

This is part of the reason why I consider them relatively inelastic, although it should be noted that Sun City itself (As opposed to Sun City West) is certainly a place where there might be a potential Democratic swing in '18/'20 in AZ.

Still, to follow to the point that I made yesterday, one must wonder to what extent Republicans have essentially cannibalized their EV margins by front-loading these areas. This means that by logical extension, the overall DEM-REP-IND EV % and ultimately TOTAL election results % will look very different than the current Party turnout %.  (More on that later in a subsequent post).

Which precincts so far have the lowest turnout levels?

Again tried to use a similar kind of coding system and just focus more on the color shading rather than a staggered margin fancy scaling system and all that.



So surprise, surprise precincts that have the lowest Early Voter Turnout levels to date, also happen to correspond to the most Democratic precincts (In General).

Republicans like to vote early and vote often to counterbalance perceived voting fraud from over-represented ethnic minorities....   (JOKE---- couldn't resist so please no offense my 'Pub friends and family out there).

Ok--- now really for the most part this list tends to correlate much more heavily with precincts with higher proportions of younger, Latino, and working-class populations than many other parts of CD-08.

El Mirage is perhaps the most observable, but as you can see from the list there are similar communities scattered all around the district with places in Goodyear and Surprise showing up heavily on the list, not to mention a couple precincts from Peoria.

So.... Arizona CD-08 is a "Tale of Two Districts" where the Older Anglo SoCal and Midwest retiree Republicans have traditionally been a dominant political force, with several newer generations, including the increasingly Multi-Ethnic Millennial Generation that tends to lean Democratic even here, with the Middling Turnout levels of the "Bridging Generation" being where most likely any election in this district will be decided....

(I did not post the 33% of the precincts that I consider to be in that swing category yet, but I'll give y'all of y'alls a hint to anyone that's been following my posts, it really comes down to how heavily key parts of Glendale and Peoria swing--- that are essentially more of your Middle-Aged and Middle-Class majority Anglo precincts, much more likely to have kids in public schools, registered Independents, and most importantly is where if we are going to see the district flip in a Special Election is where Democrats will turn out in high numbers, Republicans might be more likely to flip, and Indies can swing wildly.)

Something to chew on....



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Brittain33
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« Reply #87 on: April 11, 2018, 10:58:16 AM »

3 different spellings of his name on this page alone.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #88 on: April 11, 2018, 12:02:58 PM »

3 different spellings of his name on this page alone.

"her name"
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #89 on: April 11, 2018, 12:08:33 PM »


OK, that's 3 spellings and 2 genders so far. Smiley
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Jeppe
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« Reply #90 on: April 11, 2018, 12:10:27 PM »

Hiram Tipernini. The male version of Hiral.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #91 on: April 11, 2018, 04:06:53 PM »

It's spelled Harold Supernanny.
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« Reply #92 on: April 11, 2018, 04:15:12 PM »

5 spellings...
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #93 on: April 11, 2018, 05:31:40 PM »


The 2020 presidential election will be Hiral Tipirneni v George Papadopulos.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #94 on: April 12, 2018, 12:59:42 AM »

So here is an update for the Topline EV numbers by Party for the Special Election....

I slightly rearranged the formatting from my last post on this data that included EV numbers through 4/5/18 by Party Registration.

I hope to continue this update every day or so as we move closer to E-Day.

Quick refresher for anyone that didn't look closely at the first post (Or my text descriptions didn't sufficiently explain the data in some of the Columns in the Spreadsheet....

PEVL= the "pre-approved early voters", so the difference between RV (Total "Active" Registered Voters") vs PEVL is intended to differentiate between the population "eligible" to Vote by Mail, versus the total active voting population (as defined by Arizona statute).

The % of Ballots returned as % of Active/PEVL by Party is essentially designed to track "enthusiasm and Turnout level within the "Party" Base to see what the potential Partisan composition of the electorate will look like, as it changes over the next few weeks.



Ok---- the first thing to notice, is that initially it looks potentially likely that it will an extremely high turnout Special Election....

We already have 26% of the "Active" Registered Voters casting ballots slightly less than two weeks before Election Day (E-Day--- otherwise known as a national Holiday on Atlas)     Wink

Additionally, we already have an astonishing 36% of "Pre-approved" Early voters that have their ballots received as of yesterday, including roughly 40% of both Democratic and Republican EVs alike, as well as 30% of Indies.

Now, many of y'all aren't that familiar with Vote-by-Mail (VbM), but Oregon was the first State to do that decades back, so I'm fairly familiar with it, although not particularly fluent how exactly that has been playing out in AZ, and when one needs to have the ballots received, are there vote drop sites conveniently located in a number of areas, etc....

The largest Vote-By-Mail dumps happens within the last week of the election, especially right around the weekend BEFORE Election Day.

So, confessing my ignorance about the exact mechanics of VbM in AZ....

Obviously for Dem's out there the shift in both the topline % of EV towards the 'Pubs between the 4/5 and 4/10 Updates looks like a negative trend, and certainly if one looks at the % of Votes by RV and PEVL by solely a DEM/REP angle that could send some alarm bells....

DEM's don't hit the PANIC button quite yet and PUB's don't pop that bottle of champaign quite yet...

Overall Dem's have been pacing pretty closely with Pub's on their EV turnout....

Key thing to look at are the Indie PEVL numbers that jumped + 8.1% as a % of TOTAL between 4/5 and 4/11, and now almost 30% of Indie PEVL votes have been "banked" and are starting to catch up with both both DEM & PUB numbers.

IND voters are much more heavily concentrated as "Same Day" voters as opposed to "Early VbM" Voters compared to DEMs and PUBS alike.

Key items to watch are to what extent there is an "Indy Surge" in the last week of EV numbers.... Dem's can naturally take a hit on their overall % of the Vote, IF it starts to sink the Pub EV numbers down to potentially manageable margins depending on exactly how the actual DEM/REP vote % breaks down....

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #95 on: April 12, 2018, 03:06:45 AM »

Had planned a much more extensive matrix regarding estimated numbers for TOTAL Vote in AZ CD-08 by Party Registration, but alas left my notebook at work, so needed to post a rudimentary matrix when it comes to what the total numbers might look like in the event of a "High Democratic Election Scene" vs a "Lower Democratic Election Scene".

Although with going through an extremely labor intensive reverse engineering process by precinct, we have virtually no real data regarding how "Self-Identified" Democrats, Republicans, and Independents voted in AZ-08 in the 2016 Presidential Election.

We do have Exit polls for Arizona as a whole that indicates that roughly 7% of "self-identified" Dems and Reps switched parties at the PRES level in '16, and that "self-identified" Independents went +6% Dem.

This data since it not specific to the district, and any serious analyst on Atlas knows how the "Exit Poll" data has serious MOE issues, that this is but a starting point to attempt to create some sort of modeling for a Special Election....

So, I created two definitions:

High Democratic Model = 97% of Democrats in this election vote Dem and 3% Rep
                                  =10% of Republicans vote Dem and 90% Rep
                                  = 60% of Independents vote Dem and 40% Rep

Low Democratic Model=   95% of Dems vote Dem and 5% Rep
                                =   5% of Reps vote Dem and 95% Rep
                                =   55% of Indies vote Dem and 45% vote Rep

We can debate and discuss that all we want, but it seemed at least like a good starting point to run numbers, considering that we can assume that in a Special Congressional Election will tend to "vote their team" with Dems having a bit of an edge compared to what we know from previous Special Elections, AND additionally that Indies, even in a district where they tend to be a bit more 'Pub friendly than many other places, are likely the types of voters that have swung a bit harder against the Party and President in Power....

So, here is a rudimentary chart that shows some rough breakdowns by 2% increments by party Registration and FINAL electoral composition using the "Hi-Low" modelling system as described above.

For example, let's say the current Party Registration stays completely intact through ED and it is a (28 D- 48 R- 23 I) scene we see a "Hi Dem" scene look like a 46.4 D- 53.6 R) win   + 7.2% R

Let's say it is a "LOW DEM" scene based upon the current partisan turnout it looks more like a 44.4%-55.6% Rep Win (+11.2% R).



Now, let's say in what appears to be a relatively high turnout election (We still don't know since right now most of the votes are out from extremely older Anglo and traditionally high turnout Republican precincts), that the model shifts to something more like a (30 D- 42 R- 28 I) after all the ballots are in.

So let's look at the same "Hi-Low Model" we now see a 50.1% Dem Win....

Look at as a "Low Model Dem performance" it shifts to a 46-54 % R Win....

Although, my natural style of political analysis is focus on Micro-Level data based upon already detailed and publicly available Political, Election, and Demographic data, inherently one needs to also examine the Macro-Level data to see the Forest from an aerial view, while also examining the individual groves and ecosystems that make up the forest as well....

We still have a few more weeks to obtain additional data points thanks to the blessing known as Vote by Mail to savor the election in Slo-Mo just like a glass of fine Wine or some nice sipping Whiskey, but I still wouldn't write this special election off yet for either "Team" because of EV VBM's of a population where the average age of those who cast ballots in 65+.

I suspect we have a lot more ballots yet to come over these next few weeks, and wouldn't be surprised to see voter turnout hit 50% once all the ballots are cast....
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #96 on: April 12, 2018, 05:00:00 PM »

AZ-08, Ohio Predictive Insights: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/382924-poll-republican-holds-10-point-lead-in-arizonas-special-election

Tiperneni (D) - 43
Lesko (R) - 53
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Cactus Jack
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« Reply #97 on: April 12, 2018, 05:01:10 PM »


If undecideds break for Tipirneni, as has generally been the trend this cycle, that'll put it at 53-47. Just about what I'm anticipating.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #98 on: April 12, 2018, 05:01:24 PM »


Wow, that is A LOT closer than I expected.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #99 on: April 12, 2018, 06:19:58 PM »

Right now Republicans have a 48%-28% early vote lead. Let’s do some Bernie-style math to see how Tipirneni can still win this.

Let’s assume that Tipirneni wins 100% of the Democratic early vote ballots and 10% of the Republican early vote ballots. That puts her at 33% of the vote without the independents being factored in. Let’s say that independent early voters break for Tipirneni 60-40 and that puts her at about 48% of the vote to Lesko’s 52%. Let’s assume that Election Day ballots swell up to 20% of the total ballots and that she wins this category 60-40. That would put her at about 50.2% of the overall vote. Basically, she needs everything to go right to win.

Tipirneni is getting 15% of Republicans but Lesko is winning 10% of Democrats. Independents are breaking for Tipirneni by 12 points. Tipirneni is tied with Lesko among people who haven’t voted yet, but 16% are undecided and will likely break heavily for her. I think the 48-28 Republican early vote advantage is really misleading and that the final vote margin will be in the single digits.
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