AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)
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  AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)
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Author Topic: AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)  (Read 49359 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #50 on: March 31, 2018, 07:53:49 PM »

This race is Safe Republican, their is no reason Democrats should waste money here, that would be better spent defending the 10 Trump-Democratic Senate seats, or going on the offensive in the 25 Clinton-Republican House seats.

How much do you think Republicans win by here? I also think this is safe republican, but the margins could be interesting.

You’re unlikely to get serious analysis from King Lear, just FYI

Are you telling me I'm not going to get serious, gripping analysis from the guy that predicted +20 Roy Moore, +10 Rick Saccone, and +3 Gillespie?

Think of it as comedy relief.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #51 on: April 01, 2018, 01:50:13 AM »

As Richard Nixon used to famously say when talking to his key advisers regarding a wide range of Policy Issues from Vietnam, to the Civil Rights Movement transitioning to Northern States, Economic Policy, etc:   

"How Will it Play in Peoria"Huh?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Will_it_play_in_Peoria%3F

Although Richard Nixon was talking about Peoria, Illinois and not Peoria, Arizona, it is perhaps a fitting barometer of the 8th Congressional District of Arizona, where Peoria represents almost 25% of the Vote Share of the district, and essentially will provide a key test of Trump's ability to keep the Republican Party brand intact within a fast growing Exurban City within the Sun Belt, where in theory Trump's American Nativist and Hardline stance on immigration should be a winning proposition.....

Let's start with taking a look at the relative vote share by Community within AZ-08.



So as we see the vote share within the Congressional District is roughly as follows:

Peoria- 23%
Glendale- 17%
Surprise- 16.5%
Phoenix- 11%
Goodyear- 9%
UNINC-OTHER- 8%
Sun City- 7%
Sun City West- 4%
Others- 5 %

Why do I provide such significance to Peoria within CD-08, compared to other communities within the District, other than just the raw percentage of the vote coming from this "City"?


Basically any roadmap for Democratic victory within CD-08 will by necessity involve exceeding Democratic Maricopa County Sheriff candidate Paul Penzone's numbers in a district where Trump ally "Sheriff Joe Arpaio" won by 16,000 votes ( +5% Rep), while Trump won it by 70k votes (+ 20.7% Rep).

There are a huge number of Trump > Penzone cross-over voters that traditionally vote Republican, that any Democratic Candidate will need to win in this hardcore Rock-Ribbed 'Pub Suburban/Exurban Phoenix district.

Here's a chart of the '16 Sheriff Results by Place within CD-08.



Let's look at the '16 Presidential Results by Place within CD-08:



Now, to put this all within the larger context, we have not only the largest voting bank within the District, but additionally the place with almost the highest percentage of Trump > DEM Sheriff cross-over voters in 2016, other than some Upper-Income parts of Phoenix which I'll get to later !!!!

What else makes Peoria particularly significant when it comes to CD-08?

It generally mirrors the overall Demographics of the District.

AZ-CD08: Race & Ethnicity:



Peoria AZ: Race & Ethnicity:



Arizona CD-08: Household Income by Place:



Arizona CD-08: Education by Place:



Ok---- we have now established the Peoria is really perhaps the key place to watch in CD-08 when it comes to electoral margins.


Peoria Election Results 2012 PRES and 2016 GENERAL:



So what we see here is again how reliably Republican Peoria is, even in the 2016 Presidential Elections, with the local County elections for Sheriff being the only real case of a major deviation from recent voting history.

Now, although I haven't compiled the numbers for other Maricopa County downballot races, it does appear that in places like Peoria there was not only a major rejection of "Sheriff Joe" running under the Republican banner, but also to a significant extent local elected County offices from County Attorney, to County Recorder, to County School Superintendent even in solidly Republican precincts in Maricopa County.

It is potentially an early warning sign that Anglo Middle-Class Exurban voters are starting to reject their Maricopa County Republican Party Machine at a local level, and might well move on up the Food Chain in 2018.

Maybe it is, maybe it isn't, but many of these voters went Democratic in essentially a nationalized election (County Sheriff) for the first time in their voting histories in a Metro Area where in theory the whole "Anti-Immigrant" shtick used be a shoe-in for any Republican Candidate running for office.

Glendale, Arizona:

In theory, Glendale should be the closest potential thing to a Democratic stronghold in the event of a massive 2018 Democratic Wave election.

It has a huge 17% of CD-08 votes, Trump "only" won by 12.5% of the Vote, and the Democratic Candidate for Sheriff captured a whopping 52% of the Vote against Arpaio.

The reality is that CD-08 was basically designed to take to most Democratic and Latino portions of Glendale and pack them into the district in the South, and essentially left the 2/3 of the City with the most traditionally Republican voters "Up North" as a safety insurance policy.

So although overall Glendale was only (45-47 Trump) in 2016, the 25% of the Population outside of CD-08 was (59-33 Clinton).

The 80% of Glendale remaining within the district incorporates a mix of Working-Class / Lower Middle-Class communities in the Southern precincts that tend to be heavily Anglo with a decent Latino Population, to rolling North to heavily Upper Middle-Class Anglo precincts in the far Northern part of the City.

Here is a Map of Glendale Arizona shaded by % of Latinos within the Population....



So for anyone not used to looking at these types of maps, basically what you are looking at with the darkest shading are heavily Latino precincts, not located within Arizona CD-08, and the part of Glendale you see North of the Giant dividing line, includes some precincts in "South Central" Glendale that might be around 25 % Latino.

Here is a Map shaded by Median Household Income for Glendale that shows that the heavily Upper-Income parts of the City reside in the Northern Part of the City.



Here is a Glendale precinct map that shows the overall Trump > Clinton margins by Precinct:



Note there are three precinct cut off the Map (Butler +9 HRC, Caron +4 DJT, Glencroft +6 HRC), but I think y'all get the picture that this should normally be considered solidly Republican Suburban Country under a normal "Generic Republican" Universe.

Now, we are looking a potential scenario where places like the Gerrymandered most 'Pub section of Glendale is looking like a potential Democratic stronghold within CD-08 in November '18, in a similar fashion like Mt. Lebanon, Pennsylvania went from being a Lean Republican suburb of Pittsburgh to an overwhelmingly Democratic stronghold within barely over 10 years....

Ok--- that might be a bit of a stretch, but still the South Pittsburgh 'Burbs of PA-18 mostly resisted the major Dem swing in Upper-Income Anglo 'Burbs in the '16 GE (+ 5% '12 >'16 Dem Pres Swing) and then came swinging hard with massive whacks off the baseball bat....

Anyways--- have tons of more data from the 142 precincts that make up AZ CD-08, but unlike PA CD-18, there are no Ancestral Democratic voting blocks that are available to come back to the fold to add to major swings in Suburban/Exurban Republican areas for a win.

Instead what we have is a new emerging Democratic Coalition in the most Republican Part of Metro Phoenix without any real historical Democratic Base (HRC won 12/142 Precincts in '16), with the overwhelming majority of the others won by Trump with Double Digits, and the only election in recent memory where a Democrat has won a huge chunk of real estate throughout the district was running as County Sheriff against a guy under multiple legal clouds, who cost the taxpayers of Maricopa County Hundreds of Millions of Dollars because of his shady law enforcement techniques.

My suspicion is that for a Democrat to win this seat it would take something like the following from the places within the district:

1.) Peoria (52-48 D)
2.) Glendale (59-41 D)
3.) Surprise (51-49 D)
3.) Phoenix (53-47 D)
4.) Goodyear (61-39 D)
5.) Sun City (44-56 R)
6.) Sun City West (41-59 R)
7.) Uninc Others (48-52 R)

To Be Continued.....




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Jeppe
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« Reply #52 on: April 02, 2018, 07:32:53 PM »



Only 242 early votes so far, but Democrats are ahead by a single vote so far. Good sign, considering that Republicans have a ridiculous registration advantage in the district, and that independents likely lean towards the Democrat, even in this district.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #53 on: April 02, 2018, 07:35:05 PM »



Only 242 early votes so far, but Democrats are ahead by a single vote so far. Good sign, considering that Republicans have a ridiculous registration advantage in the district, and that independents likely lean towards the Democrat, even in this district.

I don't think this is good data to extrapolate from... it's literally only 242 votes so far. How often are they going to update this?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #54 on: April 02, 2018, 07:43:42 PM »

How significant is the early vote in Arizona (i.e. is it a major portion of the total vote)?
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Jeppe
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« Reply #55 on: April 02, 2018, 07:55:09 PM »

How significant is the early vote in Arizona (i.e. is it a major portion of the total vote)?

Yes, a large majority (eyeballing 2016 numbers, looks like around 70%) of the votes in Arizona are early votes. In 2016, Republicans had a 6 point early vote advantage in 2016 and a 10 point early vote advantage in 2012.
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Holmes
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« Reply #56 on: April 02, 2018, 08:08:22 PM »

How significant is the early vote in Arizona (i.e. is it a major portion of the total vote)?

Yes, a large majority (eyeballing 2016 numbers, looks like around 70%) of the votes in Arizona are early votes. In 2016, Republicans had a 6 point early vote advantage in 2016 and a 10 point early vote advantage in 2012.

Is that in the district or statewide?
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Jeppe
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« Reply #57 on: April 02, 2018, 08:40:27 PM »

How significant is the early vote in Arizona (i.e. is it a major portion of the total vote)?

Yes, a large majority (eyeballing 2016 numbers, looks like around 70%) of the votes in Arizona are early votes. In 2016, Republicans had a 6 point early vote advantage in 2016 and a 10 point early vote advantage in 2012.

Is that in the district or statewide?

Statewide. I imagine it was much stronger for the Republicans here, given their huge registration advantage.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #58 on: April 02, 2018, 10:53:15 PM »

How significant is the early vote in Arizona (i.e. is it a major portion of the total vote)?

Yes, a large majority (eyeballing 2016 numbers, looks like around 70%) of the votes in Arizona are early votes. In 2016, Republicans had a 6 point early vote advantage in 2016 and a 10 point early vote advantage in 2012.

Is that in the district or statewide?

Statewide. I imagine it was much stronger for the Republicans here, given their huge registration advantage.

I can't speak to the EV '12/'16 Pub/Dem advantage in the district, but the 70% total EV number looks about right overall for CD-08.

Now, it should be noted that in heavily elderly Sun City West (84% of the population is 65+ including 69% 70+), which is an extremely Republican and inelastic part of CD-08, (located within AZ State Senate/House Districts 21), close to 85% of the voters voted early in 2016.

In those precincts that vote Democratic regularly (Maybe 10% of the precincts), or are "must win" precincts that will lean Democratic in any type of competitive election within the district, we see EV numbers closer to 62-65% of the total voters in the '16 GE.

Although I definitely wouldn't assume that in Arizona, especially in this CD that Independents generally Lean Dem by HUGE numbers, one would certainly imagine that within the context of Republican President Trump, and the various swings that we have seen elsewhere in Special Elections, that Dem's likely will have an edge here in the upcoming election among registered Indies.

Will they be upgrading this chart on a daily/weekly basis, since it does provide valuable information, since we can expect that Democrats will likely perform significantly better among Election Day voters here than among EVs?

 
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« Reply #59 on: April 03, 2018, 10:46:01 AM »

Who knows. If I had to pick though, I'd lean towards no.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #60 on: April 03, 2018, 06:10:33 PM »

I find it hard to believe Democrats could win this district, given that, unlike PA-18, it doesn't have any history of supporting Democratic candidates at really any level.

That being said, if Tipirneni somehow does pull off an upset, holy crap are we in for a tsunami in November.
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« Reply #61 on: April 03, 2018, 06:17:42 PM »

I find it hard to believe Democrats could win this district, given that, unlike PA-18, it doesn't have any history of supporting Democratic candidates at really any level.

That being said, if Tipirneni somehow does pull off an upset, holy crap are we in for a tsunami in November.

You'd be surprised. Lesko has a reputation for being an idiot (with one article likening her to Betsy DeVos, ye gods and little fishies) and she's currently wrapped up in a pretty deep-running money laundering scandal, for which Tipirneni has been absolutely blasting her.

There's a window here. It's a very small one, but after Alabama and Pennsylvania, I leave nothing out of the question.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #62 on: April 03, 2018, 06:44:23 PM »

I find it hard to believe Democrats could win this district, given that, unlike PA-18, it doesn't have any history of supporting Democratic candidates at really any level.

That being said, if Tipirneni somehow does pull off an upset, holy crap are we in for a tsunami in November.

You'd be surprised. Lesko has a reputation for being an idiot (with one article likening her to Betsy DeVos, ye gods and little fishies) and she's currently wrapped up in a pretty deep-running money laundering scandal, for which Tipirneni has been absolutely blasting her.

There's a window here. It's a very small one, but after Alabama and Pennsylvania, I leave nothing out of the question.

I haven't really been following this race and didn't know about that. Interesting.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #63 on: April 04, 2018, 08:54:46 PM »

How significant is the early vote in Arizona (i.e. is it a major portion of the total vote)?

Yes, a large majority (eyeballing 2016 numbers, looks like around 70%) of the votes in Arizona are early votes. In 2016, Republicans had a 6 point early vote advantage in 2016 and a 10 point early vote advantage in 2012.

Is that in the district or statewide?

Statewide. I imagine it was much stronger for the Republicans here, given their huge registration advantage.

I can't speak to the EV '12/'16 Pub/Dem advantage in the district, but the 70% total EV number looks about right overall for CD-08.

Now, it should be noted that in heavily elderly Sun City West (84% of the population is 65+ including 69% 70+), which is an extremely Republican and inelastic part of CD-08, (located within AZ State Senate/House Districts 21), close to 85% of the voters voted early in 2016.

In those precincts that vote Democratic regularly (Maybe 10% of the precincts), or are "must win" precincts that will lean Democratic in any type of competitive election within the district, we see EV numbers closer to 62-65% of the total voters in the '16 GE.

Although I definitely wouldn't assume that in Arizona, especially in this CD that Independents generally Lean Dem by HUGE numbers, one would certainly imagine that within the context of Republican President Trump, and the various swings that we have seen elsewhere in Special Elections, that Dem's likely will have an edge here in the upcoming election among registered Indies.

Will they be upgrading this chart on a daily/weekly basis, since it does provide valuable information, since we can expect that Democrats will likely perform significantly better among Election Day voters here than among EVs?

 

Actually, the 70% EV numbers in CD-08 looks quite low, and actually EV numbers were likely over 75% in CD-08 and quite possibly more like 80% in 2016....    My OP was accidentally "fake news", so my sincere apologies....

I accidentally made the mistake of inputting 2012 numbers into my spreadsheet, rather than 2016 EV numbers.

I suspect that the 2018 Special election numbers will see an even higher level of early voting than the 2016 Presidential Election, since not only has Early Voting in Arizona apparently increased significantly between the '12 and '16 GEs throughout CD-08 in an election with significantly higher turnout, but also the composition of the electorate is likely to shift a bit older than the CD GE voters in general.

Also, the Maricopa County Elections office is estimating that only 4% of the total population of Registered Voters will vote same-day in CD-08, and although obviously they are likely basing that on traditional special election turnout models, still appears that their Math is assuming something like 80% EV turnout....

Still hoping we can get the same type of types and breakdowns of EV by CD and Party Registration for CD-08 throughout the run-up to 4/22....

After all Political Campaigns have the ability to track this stuff live on a Daily Basis by Precinct and compare which voters have voted yet, what Party they are registered to, etc....

If it's good enough for the Pol's out there (Pay-to-Play with County Data access), at least us non-paying consumers, including taxpayers within a given election district, should be able to have access to the "top-line" updates when it comes to EV statistics?Huh

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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #64 on: April 04, 2018, 08:57:32 PM »

How significant is the early vote in Arizona (i.e. is it a major portion of the total vote)?

Yes, a large majority (eyeballing 2016 numbers, looks like around 70%) of the votes in Arizona are early votes. In 2016, Republicans had a 6 point early vote advantage in 2016 and a 10 point early vote advantage in 2012.

Is that in the district or statewide?

Statewide. I imagine it was much stronger for the Republicans here, given their huge registration advantage.

I can't speak to the EV '12/'16 Pub/Dem advantage in the district, but the 70% total EV number looks about right overall for CD-08.

Now, it should be noted that in heavily elderly Sun City West (84% of the population is 65+ including 69% 70+), which is an extremely Republican and inelastic part of CD-08, (located within AZ State Senate/House Districts 21), close to 85% of the voters voted early in 2016.

In those precincts that vote Democratic regularly (Maybe 10% of the precincts), or are "must win" precincts that will lean Democratic in any type of competitive election within the district, we see EV numbers closer to 62-65% of the total voters in the '16 GE.

Although I definitely wouldn't assume that in Arizona, especially in this CD that Independents generally Lean Dem by HUGE numbers, one would certainly imagine that within the context of Republican President Trump, and the various swings that we have seen elsewhere in Special Elections, that Dem's likely will have an edge here in the upcoming election among registered Indies.

Will they be upgrading this chart on a daily/weekly basis, since it does provide valuable information, since we can expect that Democrats will likely perform significantly better among Election Day voters here than among EVs?

 

Actually, the 70% EV numbers in CD-08 looks quite low, and actually EV numbers were likely over 75% in CD-08 and quite possibly more like 80% in 2016....    My OP was accidentally "fake news", so my sincere apologies....

I accidentally made the mistake of inputting 2012 numbers into my spreadsheet, rather than 2016 EV numbers.

I suspect that the 2018 Special election numbers will see an even higher level of early voting than the 2016 Presidential Election, since not only has Early Voting in Arizona apparently increased significantly between the '12 and '16 GEs throughout CD-08 in an election with significantly higher turnout, but also the composition of the electorate is likely to shift a bit older than the CD GE voters in general.

Also, the Maricopa County Elections office is estimating that only 4% of the total population of Registered Voters will vote same-day in CD-08, and although obviously they are likely basing that on traditional special election turnout models, still appears that their Math is assuming something like 80% EV turnout....

Still hoping we can get the same type of types and breakdowns of EV by CD and Party Registration for CD-08 throughout the run-up to 4/22....

After all Political Campaigns have the ability to track this stuff live on a Daily Basis by Precinct and compare which voters have voted yet, what Party they are registered to, etc....

If it's good enough for the Pol's out there (Pay-to-Play with County Data access), at least us non-paying consumers, including taxpayers within a given election district, should be able to have access to the "top-line" updates when it comes to EV statistics?Huh



Do you happen to have the partisanship breakdown of the AZ-08 early vote in 2016?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #65 on: April 05, 2018, 11:26:45 PM »

How significant is the early vote in Arizona (i.e. is it a major portion of the total vote)?

Yes, a large majority (eyeballing 2016 numbers, looks like around 70%) of the votes in Arizona are early votes. In 2016, Republicans had a 6 point early vote advantage in 2016 and a 10 point early vote advantage in 2012.

Is that in the district or statewide?

Statewide. I imagine it was much stronger for the Republicans here, given their huge registration advantage.

I can't speak to the EV '12/'16 Pub/Dem advantage in the district, but the 70% total EV number looks about right overall for CD-08.

Now, it should be noted that in heavily elderly Sun City West (84% of the population is 65+ including 69% 70+), which is an extremely Republican and inelastic part of CD-08, (located within AZ State Senate/House Districts 21), close to 85% of the voters voted early in 2016.

In those precincts that vote Democratic regularly (Maybe 10% of the precincts), or are "must win" precincts that will lean Democratic in any type of competitive election within the district, we see EV numbers closer to 62-65% of the total voters in the '16 GE.

Although I definitely wouldn't assume that in Arizona, especially in this CD that Independents generally Lean Dem by HUGE numbers, one would certainly imagine that within the context of Republican President Trump, and the various swings that we have seen elsewhere in Special Elections, that Dem's likely will have an edge here in the upcoming election among registered Indies.

Will they be upgrading this chart on a daily/weekly basis, since it does provide valuable information, since we can expect that Democrats will likely perform significantly better among Election Day voters here than among EVs?

 

Actually, the 70% EV numbers in CD-08 looks quite low, and actually EV numbers were likely over 75% in CD-08 and quite possibly more like 80% in 2016....    My OP was accidentally "fake news", so my sincere apologies....

I accidentally made the mistake of inputting 2012 numbers into my spreadsheet, rather than 2016 EV numbers.

I suspect that the 2018 Special election numbers will see an even higher level of early voting than the 2016 Presidential Election, since not only has Early Voting in Arizona apparently increased significantly between the '12 and '16 GEs throughout CD-08 in an election with significantly higher turnout, but also the composition of the electorate is likely to shift a bit older than the CD GE voters in general.

Also, the Maricopa County Elections office is estimating that only 4% of the total population of Registered Voters will vote same-day in CD-08, and although obviously they are likely basing that on traditional special election turnout models, still appears that their Math is assuming something like 80% EV turnout....

Still hoping we can get the same type of types and breakdowns of EV by CD and Party Registration for CD-08 throughout the run-up to 4/22....

After all Political Campaigns have the ability to track this stuff live on a Daily Basis by Precinct and compare which voters have voted yet, what Party they are registered to, etc....

If it's good enough for the Pol's out there (Pay-to-Play with County Data access), at least us non-paying consumers, including taxpayers within a given election district, should be able to have access to the "top-line" updates when it comes to EV statistics?Huh



Do you happen to have the partisanship breakdown of the AZ-08 early vote in 2016?

No---- Honestly I'm not even sure that data is publicly available anywhere, unless one happens to have purchased the information from Maricopa County directly, or spent tons of hours scribing the data directly from the County Election office.

Maybe another poster has access to data that either I wasn't able to locate for lack of proper search terms, or has access to data behind the "paywall", in which case if they were to send me the data files would be more than happy to spend some time running the numbers against my current data sets.....
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #66 on: April 06, 2018, 12:44:11 AM »

Realized that maybe I jumped the gun a bit when it came to my original post regarding CD-08 and started jumping into the weeds a bit perhaps without providing the topline election numbers by community within CD-08....

Here is a Chart that I made for how the various places within AZ CD-08 voted from '12 to '16 for key races...



So, what does this data tell us within the context of the AZ-08 Special Election and potentially the AZ '18 GE???

First thing obviously to look at would be how the Democratic and Republican US SEN candidates performed in the 2012 AZ-SEN race...

The reason why I consider that significant is that here you had a Republican Senator significantly under-perform the US-PRES candidate in 2012 but still win by (56-39 R), so if Dems might potentially flip the district in a Special Election in '18, the Dem candidate would need to perform exceptionally well in places where Flake was relatively weak.

We can also look at the 2012 vs 2016 Presidential Election numbers as a potential data point in terms of areas where one might expect to see larger swings towards the Dem in the '18 AZ CD-08 Special Election....



So interestingly enough despite the "Latino Surge" of 2016, it appears that at least within the most heavily Latino and Working-Class part of the Congressional district, Millennial Latinos shifted heavily towards 3rd Party Candidates if we look at El Mirage for example.

Now, it does get confusing in the Suburbs and Exurbs of Phoenix when trying to separate the Anglo/Latino Vote, without going deep into the weeds of precinct results, but the immediate data does seem to suggest that the '12 to '16 Dem Pres Swings were more predominant in more heavily Anglo precincts within the district.

This is actually both positive and negative data when it comes to a Democrat running within the district for a "low turnout" Special Election....

The negative side is obvious, is that even with a "surge" of Latino Millennials voting in '16 for 3rd Party Pres candidates, will they actually turn out to vote in a 2018 Special Election?

The positive side is that there appears to have been a significant shift among Middle and Upper-Middle Class Anglos towards a Democratic Candidate in a big way for the first time ever in many of these communities....



Key question here, is to what extent was the rejection of "Sheriff Joe" considered to be more of an issue of corrupt local top cop and an Anti-Latino bigot to boot, vs a rejection among many McCain/Flake/Romney traditional 'Pub voters that gave Trump a pass in '16, that having voted Democrat for the first time in quite a few years, might continue to follow that path into the 2018 General Election?

I don't pretend to have the answers to any of these questions, and hopefully will have some time to go through the various communities that consist of CD-08 in greater detail before the upcoming special election.

Still, hopefully there is some food for thought here....


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« Reply #67 on: April 06, 2018, 11:28:27 AM »

Tossup.
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« Reply #68 on: April 06, 2018, 11:34:27 AM »


What is the argument why this would be anything less than Lean R? Republicans have an acceptable candidate and the fundamentals favor them.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #69 on: April 06, 2018, 11:48:21 AM »

Right now Republicans have a 48%-28% early vote lead. Let’s do some Bernie-style math to see how Tipirneni can still win this.

Let’s assume that Tipirneni wins 100% of the Democratic early vote ballots and 10% of the Republican early vote ballots. That puts her at 33% of the vote without the independents being factored in. Let’s say that independent early voters break for Tipirneni 60-40 and that puts her at about 48% of the vote to Lesko’s 52%. Let’s assume that Election Day ballots swell up to 20% of the total ballots and that she wins this category 60-40. That would put her at about 50.2% of the overall vote. Basically, she needs everything to go right to win.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #70 on: April 06, 2018, 12:35:21 PM »


What is the argument why this would be anything less than Lean R? Republicans have an acceptable candidate and the fundamentals favor them.

All of those recent special elections have been an absolute disaster for Republicans, so I think caution is justified here. This race could very well still tighten, and the composition of the electorate should be very favorable to Democrats. My predictions actually underestimated Dallet and Lamb, I’m not going to make that same mistake again here.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #71 on: April 06, 2018, 12:51:16 PM »


What is the argument why this would be anything less than Lean R? Republicans have an acceptable candidate and the fundamentals favor them.

All of those recent special elections have been an absolute disaster for Republicans, so I think caution is justified here. This race could very well still tighten, and the composition of the electorate should be very favorable to Democrats. My predictions actually underestimated Dallet and Lamb, I’m not going to make that same mistake again here.

This race will probably move considerably toward the Democrats as most of the other special elections have done, but it's a much less favorable environment for them than the Dallet and Lamb contests were.  I agree with Brittain33 that this is Lean R at best, and probably closer to Likely R.
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« Reply #72 on: April 06, 2018, 01:15:56 PM »

I really like Tipernini as a candidate, though I'm afraid she has close to no chance. This district is ancestrally very GOP. Maybe a state house/senate seat for her in the future?
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Jeppe
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« Reply #73 on: April 06, 2018, 01:54:46 PM »

If Tipirneni does well in AZ-08, she should run statewide. She lives in a very upscale and Republican part of AZ-08, I believe, so finding electable local offices would probably be very hard for her. Either way, Tipirneni and Lesko are probably going to have a rematch in November.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #74 on: April 06, 2018, 02:37:33 PM »

The chance Democrats win here is minuscule, but I’m excited to see what the swing is
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