Fremont wins in 1856

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

One can hardly discuss the consequences in detal without knowledge of teh circumstances.  I don't see handwaving as being sufficient to account for Fremont winning in 1856.  If he wins every single free state he wins by a margin of 180-116.  But I can't see even Fillmore and the Whig Party's support raising Fremont past the 140-156 level.  There's no way for him to win Indiana or Pennsylvania in 1856 without changing something else as Buchannan got over 50% of the vote in those two states.

That said, the South is both less likely and more able to successfully seceed in 1857 than in 1861.  Cotton is in the middle of its boom era.  Britain doesn't need northern grain as much in the late 1850's as it did in the early 1860's.  Those two factors make it more likely that the South will suceed should it secede.  But there had been no Panic of 1857 to feed southern hubris or a Harpers Ferry to fuel Southern fears.  The South was not psychologically prepared for a split in 1857.