I think Kaine improves virtually everywhere and stomps his opponents by 10-15 points, but I think if Stewart is the GOP nominee, he will either narrowly win Prince William or keep it very close.
Prince William County is not a swing county. Kaine is going to beat Stewart by 30 points in Prince William if he’s the nominee. Prince William has a very large minority population, and the rest of the county is full of wealthy, white suburbanites who once used to lean Republican, but jumped ship en masse towards the Democrats federally in 2016 and downballot in 2017.
