VA-Wason Center: unsettled Republican primary, Kaine leads Rs by 20+ points (user search)
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  VA-Wason Center: unsettled Republican primary, Kaine leads Rs by 20+ points (search mode)
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Author Topic: VA-Wason Center: unsettled Republican primary, Kaine leads Rs by 20+ points  (Read 3951 times)
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,414
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

« on: June 03, 2018, 10:33:05 PM »

Elaine Luria must be counting her lucky stars.

I've been wondering why she hasn't gotten more attention from the Resistance. She has a pretty impressive resume (Navy commander and all). Bigger problem might be that Virginia Beach isn't exactly a hotbed of white liberalism. VA-2 will be a heavy lift, but we'll see.
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,414
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

« Reply #1 on: June 03, 2018, 10:45:46 PM »

Elaine Luria must be counting her lucky stars.

I've been wondering why she hasn't gotten more attention from the Resistance. She has a pretty impressive resume (Navy commander and all). Bigger problem might be that Virginia Beach isn't exactly a hotbed of white liberalism. VA-2 will be a heavy lift, but we'll see.

Yeah, I agree; I think the way luria wins is by riding on Kaine’s coattails. I wonder what Kaine’s upper bound in VA-2 is... maybe a 10-15 point win against Stewart?

That seems like a stretch. It was only Northam +4 and Northam had much stronger ties to the district than Kaine does. While yeah Stewart is an awful person, I really don't see Kaine winning this district by more than 5 points. That still leaves room for Luria to win, but it'll be tough, and Taylor is about as strong as it gets for a freshman incumbent.
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