VA-Wason Center: unsettled Republican primary, Kaine leads Rs by 20+ points

[cvparty]

I wonder if Kaine could break 60 in November...

[President Johnson]

I wonder if Kaine could break 60 in November...

Possible. Warner got 65% in 2008, so it is not impossible. I think he'll end up with about 58%.

[Gass3268]

I think Kaine improves virtually everywhere and stomps his opponents by 10-15 points, but I think if Stewart is the GOP nominee, he will either narrowly win Prince William or keep it very close.

Lol no

[ON Progressive]

I think Kaine improves virtually everywhere and stomps his opponents by 10-15 points, but I think if Stewart is the GOP nominee, he will either narrowly win Prince William or keep it very close.

If a GOPer is keeping it close in Prince William, they aren't getting blown out by double digits.

[fridgeking]

I think Kaine improves virtually everywhere and stomps his opponents by 10-15 points, but I think if Stewart is the GOP nominee, he will either narrowly win Prince William or keep it very close.

Northam got 61% in Prince William and he won by 9 statewide. If Stewart does lose by 15 points, he's definitely not winning Prince William.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Trump was from manhatten and lost it by significantly more than Romney

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I mean its his home county where he is head supervisor, and has shown great prowess in elections there. That is why I think even though he would get stomped by Kaine by around 13 points ish, I still think he would make Prince William an anomaly/buck the trend, and either win it, or keep it very close here.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Trump was from manhatten and lost it by significantly more than Romney

Hillary was a NY senator too though.

[DINGO Joe]

I mean its his home county where he is head supervisor, and has shown great prowess in elections there. That is why I think even though he would get stomped by Kaine by around 13 points ish, I still think he would make Prince William an anomaly/buck the trend, and either win it, or keep it very close here.

Naw, the "Colonel" Corey schtick ain't gonna fly in NOVA.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

FWIW, using a uniform swing from the 2014 Senate race, here is what a 24 point Kaine win would look like. Disregard shading. Yellow = too close to call:

[Jeppe]

I think Kaine improves virtually everywhere and stomps his opponents by 10-15 points, but I think if Stewart is the GOP nominee, he will either narrowly win Prince William or keep it very close.

Prince William County is not a swing county. Kaine is going to beat Stewart by 30 points in Prince William if he’s the nominee. Prince William has a very large minority population, and the rest of the county is full of wealthy, white suburbanites who once used to lean Republican, but jumped ship en masse towards the Democrats federally in 2016 and downballot in 2017.

[Maxwell]

This is safe D, especially vs. Jackson or Stewart.

That being said, I wish there was a better occupier of that seat than Tim Kaine.

what's worse is that Tim Kaine is definitively the better Senator from Virginia.

[ON Progressive]

I mean its his home county where he is head supervisor, and has shown great prowess in elections there. That is why I think even though he would get stomped by Kaine by around 13 points ish, I still think he would make Prince William an anomaly/buck the trend, and either win it, or keep it very close here.

You realize those were elections where 10% of voters voted when Obama was in the White House, no? You can’t be this ignorant, can you?

If even Ed Gillespie 2014 couldn't win PW County when he was a pretty good fit for NoVA as far as Republicans go, someone like Corey Stewart just isn't. The state is bluer than it was in 2014, and the turnout won't be in the GOPs favor like 2014. Not only that, but Stewart is just about as bad a fit for NoVA as anyone could be.

He won't just lose PW County against Kaine, he'll lose it by at best, 25 points.

[heatcharger]

Elaine Luria must be counting her lucky stars.

I've been wondering why she hasn't gotten more attention from the Resistance. She has a pretty impressive resume (Navy commander and all). Bigger problem might be that Virginia Beach isn't exactly a hotbed of white liberalism. VA-2 will be a heavy lift, but we'll see.

[heatcharger]

Elaine Luria must be counting her lucky stars.

I've been wondering why she hasn't gotten more attention from the Resistance. She has a pretty impressive resume (Navy commander and all). Bigger problem might be that Virginia Beach isn't exactly a hotbed of white liberalism. VA-2 will be a heavy lift, but we'll see.

Yeah, I agree; I think the way luria wins is by riding on Kaine’s coattails. I wonder what Kaine’s upper bound in VA-2 is... maybe a 10-15 point win against Stewart?

That seems like a stretch. It was only Northam +4 and Northam had much stronger ties to the district than Kaine does. While yeah Stewart is an awful person, I really don't see Kaine winning this district by more than 5 points. That still leaves room for Luria to win, but it'll be tough, and Taylor is about as strong as it gets for a freshman incumbent.