Which county would flip sooner?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This should be interesting...

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Jackson County KY because the white vote is more elastic and Northampton County, NC is majority black. It would pretty much take an unlikely national realignment in which democrats become known as the Hispanic party and blacks switch to a more populist GOP (no more Paul Ryans trying to gut all social programs) for this to happen.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Jackson County, KY has literally never voted Democratic. the party has gone through many dramatic changes since the Civil War, and each time Jackson remained extremely solidly R. so if I had to guess, I'd say Northampton would flip first - in a national R landslide where they're getting ~25% of the black vote.