What will it have to take to have a 500+ EV landslide occur today?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cook PVI has the states evenly matched .

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Cook PVI has the states evenly matched .

What the hell does that mean?

[I’m not Stu]

This is my best guess of what the most plausible 500+ EV landslide would look like. A Democratic victory.

D: 502
R: 36

[CookieDamage]

Pretty much all the factors that led to previous 500+ or close to 500 EC landslides in the 20th century would have to be met today. The thing about today is that we are very partisan and as such it will be harder for partisans and everyday voters to vote for an opposing candidate even if:

- There's an economic recession/crash/depression
- high unemployment
- foreign catastrophe tied to administration
- unpopular war
- extremely unpopular or scandal-plagued candidate

[Galaxie]

An act of God

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Even more important than partisan sorting is the geographical sorting of the parties. In California there are over 3.5 million more registered Democrats than Republicans, that's asking for a hell of a turnaround for the GOP to win it and get over 500 EVs.

I could imagine a scenario like this: Booker wins a contentious Democratic primary in 2020, beating out Warren and the progressive wing of the party in a close race. In the general Booker beats Trump handily in a 300+ EV victory. In office, Israel and Iran come into conflict and US troops are sent to occupy Iranian ports, oil prices spiral and a global depression hits. To head off a debt crisis President Booker is forced into a grand bargain with Congressional Republicans delivering swinging cuts to Medicare and Social Security. Incensed at all this, progressives unite under an anti-war primary challenge by Gabbard, who withdraws to mount a third party challenge after narrowly losing the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, citing the "rigged" process. With the Democratic coalition cleaved in two, GOP nominee Tom Cotton sweeps to a 500+ EV victory on an "end the Democrat depression, fight with honour" platform in a 53/24/21 victory.

[pbrower2a]

1. The incumbent wins.

Hoover got 59 electoral votes in 1932 and Carter got 49 electoral votes, precluding the challenger from getting 500.  Every incumbent shows some zone of strong support from the first election to the second.

2. The Republican wins California. California alone has 55 electoral votes. 538-55 = 487.

3. The Democrat wins Texas. Well, one could get 500 electoral votes without Texas (538-36 =502) but that leaves no room for the Democrat losing any whole state. Texas straddles the zone of the 400th electoral vote for a Democrat, and has for a long time.

4. The winner gets both New York and Florida. By not getting New York (538-29 = 509), the Republican cannot lose any one state with ten or more electoral votes, or Dee Cee and any state with    seven or more electoral votes. Florida is close to the tipping-point as it is.  

Trump is not going to lose New York without also losing Dee Cee, Hawaii, and Vermont... or without losing Maryland.  

[Izzyeviel]

If Trump hadn't campaigned on being a vile racist sexist pig...

[Izzyeviel]

If Trump hadn't campaigned on being a vile racist sexist pig...

Although playing around with the electoral map, no route to 500 can happen without California, so how does a candidate win California and south Carolina?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2020
Cory Booker/Tim Ryan 374
Donald Trump/Mike Pence 160

[Technocracy Timmy]

This is my best guess of what the most plausible 500+ EV landslide would look like. A Democratic victory.

D: 502
R: 36

This would be my guess as well.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

This is my best guess of what the most plausible 500+ EV landslide would look like. A Democratic victory.

D: 502
R: 36

This would be my guess as well.

It's more likely that Dems win Utah than WV+ND or KY.

[Technocracy Timmy]

I forgot about Utah but yeah.

I’d say WY/ID/AR/OK are among the very last to fall Dem in a 500+ sweep. Possibly AL too.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

2020
Cory Booker/Tim Ryan 374
Donald Trump/Mike Pence 160

500 + electoral vote landslide.
374 electoral votes.

[darklordoftech]

Anthony Wiener, Dennis Hastert, or Roy Moore gets one of the nominations.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Anthony Wiener, Dennis Hastert, or Roy Moore gets one of the nominations.

You have too much faith in the American electorate.

[Skill and Chance]

Incumbent seeking reelection (or term-limited incumbent's VP running) after a clear US victory in WWIII.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cory Booker/Tim Ryan 338
Trump/Pence 200

[cvparty]

someone stop olawakandi

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

someone stop olawakandi

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Demographics of the US electorate revert to 1984, and a popular Republican incumbent is running against a robotic, uncharismatic snooze-fest of a Democrat who tells us we need to accept the fact that America is in decline and no longer a great power in the world.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is my best guess of what the most plausible 500+ EV landslide would look like. A Democratic victory.

D: 502
R: 36

This would be my guess as well.

It's more likely that Dems win Utah than WV+ND or KY.

Not unless a third party candidate runs in Utah

[RaphaelDLG]

A plague that white people are resistant to

[IceSpear]

A plague that white people are resistant to

Or black people are resistant to.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

A plague that white people are resistant to

Or black people are resistant to.

Or that can only spread in areas with more than 250 people per square mile.