Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[LimoLiberal]

Reuters/Ipsos

Approve - 41 (+1)
Disapprove - 54 (nc)

538 aggregate now at Trump's best net approvals since February 20th.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, Mar 4-8, 3447 adults

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

[pbrower2a]

Indiana really stood out for me, even on the Morning Consultant Poll as a potential indicator that Trump's approvals are dropping hard within the Industrial Midwest, which in theory is a place where his image of being an economic protectionist and "Anti-War" Republican, combined with American Nativism attitudes regarding immigration should be a somewhat decent fit at the Presidential Level.

What IS a bit bizarre is how close the IN/OH net approval numbers are in '18, according to Morning Consultant.

Additionally, my reference to the Great Plains States, appears to indicate a massive collapse of Trump support in the Grain Belt running down from ND to OK, not to mention MT ( 1/2 Grain Belt 1/2 Mountain West)....

Why would that be case?

Obviously approvals/disapprovals of Presidential job performance won't necessarily translate into 2020 GE Pres numbers, regardless of the Democratic nominee against Trump, but one must wonder about what is going on in rural areas of ND/SD/KS/NE/OK/MT, since generally the "Urban Metro population" in these States is somewhat lacking outside of a few places like the Kansas suburbs of KC, Metro Omaha/Lincoln in NE, Tulsa/OKC in OK....

The only explanation for these massive swings would have to be a collapse in Trump approval ratings among small town and rural voters in many of these places.

I do wonder to what extent the suffering family farmers of America, facing the worse collapse in Global Commodity Prices since the late 1980s for many agricultural products might be starting to swing against the Trump brand which early on talked a lot about Farmers, but really hasn't done crap other than alienate trading partners when the ag sector started to increasingly shift towards exporting ag commodities for dimes on the dollar about 5 years ago.

Not trying to do a Casey Jones style train derailment of the thread, but look at the Morning Consultant net only 6-9% approvals in ND/SD/KS/NE/MT and tell me something isn't happening there even in the "Rosy Trump" scenario....   

Keep at it Pbrower2a and would be interesting to see two different sets of maps (Rosy Trump approvals vs Crappy Trump approvals).....

If I notice Trump hemorrhaging supp0rt in the Mountain and Deep South, I have less data about rural America. It turns out that while Doug Jones won the Senate seat that Jeff Sessions vacated to be Attorney General, approval for Trump in the exit polls fell to just under 50% and were even. I do not know what to make of this, except that Alabama has not gone for a Democratic nominee for President since 1976 even if Bill Clinton was the nominee in 1992 and 1996. Consider that Arkansas and Alabama have similar demographics.

If Donald Trump is getting known as an  obnoxious d@mnyankee  in the South, he may be developing a reputation as an abrasive city-slicker in rural areas.

Commodity prices have gone far into the political background as Republicans have largely wiped out Congressional Democrats in farm areas. It may be hard to remember, but there used to be Democrats who put a focus on farm issues -- like commodity prices. Republicans have turned the agenda entirely to taxes and have come close to wiping out farm-state Democrats from Congress. I am sure that they figured that Senator Heidi Heitkamp would be the easiest to defeat in 2018. But here is the problem with the GOP focus on taxes: taxes matter if one has an  income and not at all if one doesn't. If commodity prices crater, farmers get burned, and no tax cut can save them from the economic hardships therefrom.

As I see it, President Trump is the problem for the GOP. They would not have this problem if Mitt Romney were President. He offends the sensibilities of intelligent people, and there are plenty of intelligent people out there. He has a revolving door for White House staff, staffers having almost the same level of employee turnover that  one sees among fast-food workers. He knows about as much about rural issues in America as the usual urban dweller... but most urbanites know that they know little about farming and agricultural economics.

Add to this -- rural areas are quite conservative about sex, national loyalty, and corruption. We have yet to see the full significance of the $135K payout to Stormie Daniels. Now what was that for? For a billionaire this is chicken feed. For someone with genuine costs of living and (I presume) bad habits normal in her  (ahem!) profession, including lavish consumerism, one could run through the $135K very fast. Careers in her line are short, and they do not lead to the sort of work that most people want to get into. It is easy to see that she would want more money. (Advice to American youth -- if you are a you heterosexual male, pick a wife for every important aspect of life except sex appeal. Develop some personal loyalty. Divorces are costly and don't be disappointed when she begins to become less attractive than the Playmate of the Month. Be the sort who can have a 60-year marriage).

People fell for a myth, and the myth is proving to be a pig in the poke. I do not see a recovery in this President's approval ratings.
 

[LimoLiberal]

Gravis has him 46-50 in Missouri.

http://orlando-politics.com/2018/03/12/gravis-marketing-2018-poll-the-state-of-missouri/

[LimoLiberal]

Rasmussen 3/12

Approve - 45 (+1)
Disapprove - 53 (-1)

Not the 50% Trump was promising!

[pbrower2a]

Gravis has him 46-50 in Missouri.

http://orlando-politics.com/2018/03/12/gravis-marketing-2018-poll-the-state-of-missouri/

Much-maligned poster, but we don't get that many polls of Missouri.I make little of the category change, as the polling change is well within the margin or error. More troubling for President Trump in a re-election bid are that his disapproval in a state that hasn't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1996 seems to be reversing its R trend, and especially that a pollster has his disapproval in the "Show Me" state at the 50% level.

President Trump would have to pick up about every possible undecided voter and do better than 50-50 among new voters to win Missouri if this poll is not only credible but accurate. As in 2008, Missouri is roughly at the divide (for Democrats) between Obama 2008 and (Bill) Clinton in 1992 or 1996, which isn't much of a divide.

At this point I see the polarization of America on Presidential politics diminishing markedly. Figuring that Oklahoma will probably be the third-best state for the President in 2020, I can imagine the President winning most likely  four (possibly three or five depending on the Dakotas) with 60% or more of the popular vote in those states.

Senator Claire McCaskill is at roughly a 50-50 chance of holding onto her Senate seat unless the Republicans nominate a wacko to run against her, in which case she wins as in 2012.

Trump is not very popular in New Jersey (Quinnipiac):

32% Approve
63% Disapprove

Source

Approval:

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but negative pale blue
ties white
45% or higher and positive pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November. Polls from Alabama, New Jersey, and Virginia are exit polls from 2017 elections.  

[LimoLiberal]

Gallup 3/12

Approve - 39
Disapprove - 56 (+1)


PA-18, Monmouth

Approve - 49
Disapprove - 49

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 39 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Very static lately: last 3 weeks are 39/56, 39/55, 39/56.

[KingSweden]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 39 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Very static lately: last 3 weeks are 39/56, 39/55, 39/56.

Remarkably stable.

[pbrower2a]

Gallup 3/12

Approve - 39
Disapprove - 56 (+1)

There's no getting around this: 56% disapproval nationwide is a disaster for the President. This comes before the announcement of an effort to negotiate something (of course information with a diplomatic effort is murky until something solid emerges) with North Korea. Note well that China and South Korea concur on their view that the Korean peninsula should be free of nuclear weapons. Russia, Japan, and the United States would go along. It's all up to Emperor-in-all-but-name  Jong-Un I to do what is right.

Normally American Presidents are much more secretive about diplomatic efforts so that they have plausible denial in case something goes wrong. President Trump acts as if such a nicety has no relevance to him because he is Donald Trump. Let's all hope for the best even if it makes the President's approval ratings leave the danger zone.

 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

A surge model  is assumed in this district because Democrats show evidence of being more involved in the race for an open House seat in a special election. This district is not a microcosm of Pennsylvania, being more R than most districts... if it is tied, then President Trump is probably going to lose Pennsylvania decisively in 2020 unless things change greatly in a slightly less than  two and a half years to the benefit of the President.

I am surprised that I have not seen a poll of the Keystone State since September, as it has a Senate seat up for re-election.

Gravis has him 46-50 in Missouri.

http://orlando-politics.com/2018/03/12/gravis-marketing-2018-poll-the-state-of-missouri/

Much-maligned poster, but we don't get that many polls of Missouri.I make little of the category change, as the polling change is well within the margin or error. More troubling for President Trump in a re-election bid are that his disapproval in a state that hasn't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1996 seems to be reversing its R trend, and especially that a pollster has his disapproval in the "Show Me" state at the 50% level.

President Trump would have to pick up about every possible undecided voter and do better than 50-50 among new voters to win Missouri if this poll is not only credible but accurate. As in 2008, Missouri is roughly at the divide (for Democrats) between Obama 2008 and (Bill) Clinton in 1992 or 1996, which isn't much of a divide.

At this point I see the polarization of America on Presidential politics diminishing markedly. Figuring that Oklahoma will probably be the third-best state for the President in 2020, I can imagine the President winning most likely  four (possibly three or five depending on the Dakotas) with 60% or more of the popular vote in those states.

Senator Claire McCaskill is at roughly a 50-50 chance of holding onto her Senate seat unless the Republicans nominate a wacko to run against her, in which case she wins as in 2012.

Approval:

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but negative pale blue
ties white
45% or higher and positive pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

 RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November. Polls from Alabama, New Jersey, and Virginia are exit polls from 2017 elections.  

[American2020]

Gravis has him 46-50 in Missouri.

http://orlando-politics.com/2018/03/12/gravis-marketing-2018-poll-the-state-of-missouri/

Much-maligned poster, but we don't get that many polls of Missouri.I make little of the category change, as the polling change is well within the margin or error. More troubling for President Trump in a re-election bid are that his disapproval in a state that hasn't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1996 seems to be reversing its R trend, and especially that a pollster has his disapproval in the "Show Me" state at the 50% level.

President Trump would have to pick up about every possible undecided voter and do better than 50-50 among new voters to win Missouri if this poll is not only credible but accurate. As in 2008, Missouri is roughly at the divide (for Democrats) between Obama 2008 and (Bill) Clinton in 1992 or 1996, which isn't much of a divide.

At this point I see the polarization of America on Presidential politics diminishing markedly. Figuring that Oklahoma will probably be the third-best state for the President in 2020, I can imagine the President winning most likely  four (possibly three or five depending on the Dakotas) with 60% or more of the popular vote in those states.

Senator Claire McCaskill is at roughly a 50-50 chance of holding onto her Senate seat unless the Republicans nominate a wacko to run against her, in which case she wins as in 2012.

Approval:

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but negative pale blue
ties white
45% or higher and positive pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

 RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November. Polls from Alabama, New Jersey, and Virginia are exit polls from 2017 elections.  

Trump's already underwater without any recession.
In case of recession, there could be a remake of the 1932 presidential election.

[FairBol]

So no polling available in CT? Wonder what's happening in my state. 

[LimoLiberal]

CBS

Approve - 38 (+1)
Disapprove - 57 (-1)

But the framing of the article is lol: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/approval-of-trumps-handling-of-north-korea-increases-cbs-news-poll/

"Approval of Trump's handling of North Korea increases - CBS News poll"

[pbrower2a]

So no polling available in CT? Wonder what's happening in my state.  

The usual pollsters of Connecticut have had other concerns. I am surprised that nobody has had a statewide poll of Connecticut recently. I am really surprised about Pennsylvania -- until I recognize that there is a special election today for a Congressional seat.

There is the Gallup statewide data for Connecticut, but that is over 2017 and average older than anything I have. I did see Trump well underwater in Pennsylvania -- in September, but that is too early for what I show now.

I know of some states that have fairly regular polling... but there are some hot Gubernatorial and Senate races, and with those (AZ, IN, MO, MT, NV, PA, WI) there will be polling.

I suspect that Connecticut has been close to max-out positions for Democratic nominees for President since 2008. Barack Obama won some states by the highest margins that any Democratic nominee won since the LBJ blowout win over Goldwater in 1964, and I can't imagine any Democratic nominee faring better in Connecticut than did Obama in 2008.

Trump's already underwater without any recession.
In case of recession, there could be a remake of the 1932 presidential election.

1932 or 1980, which are about the same. No modern President has shown so much deviation  from the expected norms of moral conduct for a President than has Donald Trump. This will not change. I already see several states that Kerry, Obama, and H. Clinton typically lost by huge margins approaching even splits in approval, especially in the South.  The recent poll of Nebraska suggests that this is more than President Trump being a poor cultural match for the South. He is a brash d@mnyankee; he is also an abrasive city-slicker. What some Trump voters of 2016 ignored about him beforer the election is now in their faces.  If Barack Obama didn't wear his religion on his sleeve but seemed to fit Christian ethics very well, Donald Trump wears his irreligion on his sleeve. This is a 'Santa Claus and Easter Bunny' Christian, which means that he is more informed by advertising and sentimentality than by any knowledge of the Bible.   He has the identity, but he is more of a preying man than a praying man. This man pretends to be a Christian yet follows the teachings of Ayn Rand instead.  

Sentimentality is not faith. Were I a clergyman and I got the opportunity I would try to get him to learn from the Sermon on the Mount, the essence of Jesus' teaching. Maybe the bit about the rich being damned today as then is no longer relevant; in Jesus' time, the rich were either aristocrats or thieves, corrupt people whose indulgence meant dehumanizing hardship for others. I don't see Bill Gates or Warren Buffett as particularly corrupt. This said, shysters and crony capitalists would surely face the ire of Jesus in any Second Coming. Donald Trump is a shyster and a crony capitalist, and for that people who held their noses while voting for him might not so readily vote for him in 2020.  

I am satisfied that all the investigation of any connections between the President and Russian political leadership can do little more harm to his image. It's hard to imagine anything new in the Mueller investigation convincing anyone not already convinced of the President's wrongdoing that he did anything wrong. House and Senate Republicans have circled the wagons well, and people still convinced in the President's bromides will not move. I am in no position to predict the content or consequences of any disclosures by some porn star who returning the pay-off (probably someone is paying her to return the money to the sender) for her silence. All that I can say is that $130K in hush money is far too much for covering up a one-night stand, so I am guessing that she had the potential to do far more damage to the President.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

CBS News, March 8-11, 1223 adults (change from January)

Approve 38 (+1)
Disapprove 57 (-1)

[Landslide Lyndon]

CBS News, March 8-11, 1223 adults (change from January)

Approve 38 (+1)
Disapprove 57 (-1)

TAX CUT SURGE!!!

[KingSweden]

CBS News, March 8-11, 1223 adults (change from January)

Approve 38 (+1)
Disapprove 57 (-1)

My mind model now suggests I will seduce Lindsay Duke, but Trump’s approval rating/the GCB is still not at a point where I can seduce Kate Upton or Olivia Jordan

[LimoLiberal]

Rasmussen 3/13

Approve - 48 (+2)
Disapprove - 51 (-2)

[Gass3268]

Trump is not very popular in New Jersey (Quinnipiac):

32% Approve
63% Disapprove

Source

[Holmes]

Trump is not very popular in New Jersey (Quinnipiac):

32% Approve
63% Disapprove

Source

Thanks for the 3-4 seats, Trump.

[LimoLiberal]

Trump is not very popular in New Jersey (Quinnipiac):

32% Approve
63% Disapprove

Source

Shocking...

I'd love to see the CD breakdown of these.

[Doimper]

Trump is not very popular in New Jersey (Quinnipiac):

32% Approve
63% Disapprove

Source

Thanks for the 3-4 seats, Trump.

And thanks for the dummymander, Christie.

[Tekken_Guy]

Trump is not very popular in New Jersey (Quinnipiac):

32% Approve
63% Disapprove

Source

Thanks for the 3-4 seats, Trump.

Honestly I wouldn't be surprise if even Smith loses in November.

[junior chįmp]

Trump is not very popular in New Jersey (Quinnipiac):

32% Approve
63% Disapprove

Source

Thanks for the 3-4 seats, Trump.

And thanks for the dummymander, Christie.

Based Murphy is gonna gerrymander that sucka soon

[Progressive Pessimist]

Drumpf is not very popular in New Jersey (Quinnipiac):

32% Approve
63% Disapprove

Source

Thanks for the 3-4 seats, Drumpf.

And thanks for the dummymander, Christie.

It's hilarious how badly the design of these districts backfired over the course of a few years.

[/quote]

Based Murphy is gonna gerrymander that sucka soon
[/quote]

I look forward to Chris Smith being the only GOP member of the Congressional delegation at some point in the future.