European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Tirnam]

France, Ifop poll

LREM-Modem: 27%
FN: 17%
LR: 15%
FI: 14%
PS: 7%
DLF: 6%
Others (under the 5% threshold): 14%

[Tirnam]

Internal poll released by EELV

1- No alliance between EELV and Generation.s

LREM: 32%
FN: 14%
LR: 12%
FI: 9%
EELV: 9%
Génération.s: 7%
PS: 6%
DLF: 6%

2- Alliance between EELV and Generation.s

LREM: 33%
EELV/Génération.s: 13%
FN: 12%
LR: 11%
FI: 11%
PS: 7%
DLF: 6%

Harris Interactive poll (more realistic probably...)

LREM: 28%
FN: 15%
LR: 13%
FI: 12%
PS: 8%
DLF: 7%
EELV: 4%
Génération.s: 2%

[Tirnam]

Ipsos poll, France, commissionned by LREM

- Yellow Vests list

LREM: 21%
RN: 14%
EELV: 13%
Yellow Vests: 12%
LR: 11%
LFI: 9%

-Without Yellow Vests list

LREM: 21%
RN: 17%
EELV: 14%
LR: 12.5%
LFI: 12%

[Tirnam]

The election is in 5 months, the campaign hasn't started, we don't know who will lead the LREM list, ... I don't know how you can be sure that RN will be first with a 5 points lead in the middle of a political crisis for Macron.

A lot can happen in 5 months, especially we will have Brexit and its immediate consequences just 2 months ahead of the vote.

[Tirnam]

Why are all parties so fractured in France.

Egos

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Egos

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Egos

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Egos

Get the point?

Laurent Joffrin, journalist at Libération, resumes the situation perfectly :

"Judging itself too weak to run alone, the Socialist Party, which wants unity, supports the steps of Raphael Glucksmann, leader of the new movement Place publique, who wants unity but would like to achieve it around its movement by turning first towards Benoît Hamon, who wishes unity but on the condition that the PS does not participate, preferring the PCF, who wants unity but fears to disappear if it merges into a coalition list even if it needs the other forces to prepare the municipal elections, including the ecologists of Yannick Jadot, who wish unity but, seeing their poll numbers rise like a balloon, conceive it first with themselves, making sure that the other forces are de facto disappearing behind them and wanting in any event to exclude the Socialists for lukewarmness, who would, as well, be ready to side with Ségolène Royal, who wishes unity and wants a socialist list if it does not include socialists and has just proposed to be second behind a Yannick Jadot list, who wants unity but refuse to envisage it with Ségolène Royal, who would then constraint to achieve unity with herself and no one else. We see that all this is crystal clear."

[Tirnam]

France, Ifop poll

- Without a "Yellow Vest" list
LREM - 23% (+5 since december)
RN - 21% (-3)
LR - 10% (-1)
FI - 9.5% (+0.5)
DLF - 7.5% (-0.5)
EELV - 6.5% (-1.5)
Others under the 5% threshold (PS at 4%, Hamon at 2.5%)

- With a "Yellow Vest" list
LREM - 23% (+5)
RN - 18.5% (-4.5)
LR - 10% (-1)
Yellow Vest - 7.5%
FI - 7% (-2)
EELV - 6.5% (-1.5)
DLF - 6% (-2)
Others under the 5% threshold (PS at 4.5%, Hamon at 2.5%)

[Tirnam]

France, Elabe poll

- Without Yellow Vest list

LREM: 23.5% (+4 since november)
RN: 20.5% (+0.5)
LR: 12.5% (-2.5)
LFI: 9.5% (-1.5)
EELV: 9% (+2)
PS: 6% (-1)
DLF: 5% (-1.5)
Other lists under 5%

- Yellow Vets list

LREM: 22.5%
RN: 17.5%
Yellow Vest: 13%
LR: 11.5%
EELV: 8.5%
LFI: 8%
PS: 5%
Other lists under 5%

[Tirnam]

Yellow Vests launch election list with 10 candidates so far.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ingrid-levavasseur-france-yellow-jackets-protesters-announce-candidates-for-european-election/

Of course it is a Yellow Vests list, not the Yellow Vests list (which will probably never exist). So don't assume that this list is polled at 13% right now.

[Tirnam]

France - Ifop poll

Without a Yellow Vest list

LREM: 24% (+1)
RN: 20% (-1)
LR: 10% (=)
EELV: 9% (+2.5)
LFI: 7.5% (-2)
PS: 6% (=)
DLF: 6% (-1.5)
Other lists under the 5% threshold

With a Yellow Vest list

LREM: 24%
RN: 20%
LR: 10%
EELV: 8.5%
LFI: 7%
PS: 6%
DLF: 6%
Other lists under the 5% threshold (including the Yellow Vest list at 3%)

[Tirnam]

France - BVA

LREM: 25% (+5 since december)
RN: 19% (-1)
LR: 10% (=)
EELV: 9% (+2)
FI: 7.5% (-2.5)
DLF: 6% (-1)
PS: 5% (=)
Other lists under 5% (with a Yellow Vests list at 4%)

Turnout index: between 47% and 52%
52% can change their mind
62% are interested by the election.

[Tirnam]

A few polls for France

Ifop
82% say it is important to vote at the European election, but Ifop estimates the turnout at 42%.

Ipsos
LREM: 23%
RN: 22%
LR: 12%
EELV: 8.5%
LFI: 9.5%
DLF: 6.5%
PS: 5.5%
Générations: 5.5%

Interested by the election: 74%
Turnout: 40-44%

Harris Interactive
LREM: 22%
RN: 20%
LR: 12%
EELV: 8%
LFI: 8%
DLF: 6%
PS: 6%

[Tirnam]

France - Ifop tracking poll

LREM: 24%
RN: 22%
LR: 13%
EELV: 7.5%
FI: 7%
DLF: 5.5%
PS: 5%

[Tirnam]

France - Ifop tracking poll

LREM: 24.5% (+0.5)
RN: 22%
LR: 13%
EELV: 7.5%
FI: 7%
DLF: 5% (-0.5)
PS: 5%

[Tirnam]

France, Ipsos poll

LREM: 23.5%
RN: 21% (or 22% without a Yellow Vest list)
LR: 12%
EELV: 8%
FI: 7.5% (8% without a Yellow Vest list)
PS-Place publique: 6.5%
(DLF at 5% without a Yellow Vest list)


On the EU:
If the EU were abandoned tomorrow, what would you feel?
-Big regrets: 51%
-Indifference: 31%
-Relief: 18%

On a scale 0-10 (0 totally opposed, 10 totally in favor), how would you rate your opinion of the EU?
- 7-10 (in favor): 47%
- 4-6 (neither in favor or opposed): 37%
- 0-3 (opposed): 16%

[Tirnam]

Turnout in France at noon: 19.26%
In 2014 it was 15.70%

[Tirnam]

France, turnout at 5pm: 43.29%. In 2014 it was 35.07%

Final turnout in 2014 was 42.43%, so already a higher turnout.
We are probably going to reach 50% turnout, a 25 years high for the EU elections.

[Tirnam]

Ifop estimates a 54% turnout in metropolitan France.
Ipsos estimate: 50.5% turnout in France (including overseas territories I guess).

[Tirnam]

So apparently the French Interior Ministry releases the results, I thought it was forbidden until 11pm.
https://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/europeennes-2019/FE.html

41% counted
RN - 27.05%
LREM - 20.40%
EELV - 11.88%
LR - 8.58%
LFI - 6.17%
PS - 5.65%

[Tirnam]

So apparently the French Interior Ministry releases the results, I thought it was forbidden until 11pm.
https://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/europeennes-2019/FE.html

41% counted
RN - 27.05%
LREM - 20.40%
EELV - 11.88%
LR - 8.58%
LFI - 6.17%
PS - 5.65%

Ipsos predicts that RN will finish at 23 %, Lrem 22 % and Greens at 13 %.

Seems closer than expected. Any chance LREM pass RN?

Ifop now estimates RN 23.6%, LREM 22.9%

[Tirnam]

France - final results

RN - 23.31% - 22 seats - 23 after Brexit
LREM - 22.41% - 21 seats - 23 after Brexit
EELV - 13.47% - 12 seats - 13 after Brexit
LR - 8.48% - 8 seats
LFI - 6.31% - 6 seats
PS - 6.19% - 5 seats - 6 after Brexit

Turnout: 50.12%