European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019
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  European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019
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Author Topic: European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019  (Read 157271 times)
Velasco
andi
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« Reply #600 on: March 21, 2019, 07:35:50 AM »

Spain

PNV breaks the alliance with the PDeCAT for the European elections due to "incompatibility" with a list led by Carles Puigdemont. Basque nationalists "accept and respect" the decision of the Puigdemont's party to run a campaign focused on the Catalan process to independence.

Pablo Bustinduy gives up the Unidas Podemos candidacy alleging personal reasons. He will be replaced by María Eugenia Rodríguez Palop, a Human Rights Professor. Apparently Bustinduy will continue in charge of the Podemos' international secretariat. The resigned candidate is a member of the Errejón faction and one of the few supporters of the former next-in-line remaining in the party. However the Podemos leadership appreciates very much his work in Congress as spokesman for foreign policy affairs, particularly his interventions on the Venezuela crisis.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #601 on: March 21, 2019, 11:51:43 PM »

New EU poll:



https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Hammer-Umfrage-FPOe-ueberholt-SPOe/372845510
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #602 on: March 23, 2019, 12:46:14 AM »

Ö1 (radio) has the first EU (radio) debate of all 6 frontrunners right now:



Pictured from left to right:

Johannes Voggenhuber (NOW)
Werner Kogler (Greens)
Claudia Gamon (NEOS)
Andreas Schieder (SPÖ)
Harald Vilimsky (FPÖ)
Othmar Karas (ÖVP)

There was speculation after that debate that the Greens and Jetzt/NOW would still find a way until April 12 to submit a common platform for the elections and to bury their differences.

Mostly because the Green Kogler and Voggenhuber (NOW) know each other well for 35 years (they were the founders of the Greens) and often said during the debate: "I mostly agree with ... Kogler on this issue" and vice-versa.

The next day, both said though that it won't happen and the EU elections will be fought individually from each other. It would also have been a major problem logistically to create a joint platform in just 3 weeks, because the Green and NOW party committees have already signed off their lists.

BTW: I watched parts of the debate and the Green Kogler and Claudia Gamon (NEOS) did the best jobs in my opinion. Schieder wasn't too bad either, as was FPÖ-candidate Vilimsky (for his base). Karas came along as a real political chameleon, trying to distance himself from the ÖVP-FPÖ government and acting as a very moderate European candidate. Voggenhuber was kinda in love with himself and arrogant.
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Diouf
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« Reply #603 on: March 23, 2019, 04:25:16 AM »

Gallup poll for Berlingske. Remember that it's looking likely that the Danish general election could be on 26 May as well, which could have all kinds of consequences + Vestager's announcement as a sort of spitzenkandidat. Compared to the other EU polls, Social Democrats are 3-4% higher, while the far left alliance is equally down. This means that the People's Movement against EU just loses their seat, although they are in the tight battle for the 14th and last seat, which Conservatives just hold on to on these figures. 39.4% of voters are in doubt, so a lot of uncertainty still.

Social Democrats 26.8% (4 seats)
SPP 7.4% (1 seat)

Liberals 21.6% (4 seats)
Conservatives 4.5% (1 seat)
Liberal Alliance 3.1% (0 seats)

DPP 14.6% (2 seats)

Red-Green Alliance 6.4% (1 seat)
People's Movement against EU 4.8% (0 seats)

Social Liberals 8.2% (1 seat)
Alternative 2.6% (0 seats)
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #604 on: March 23, 2019, 07:27:21 AM »

Regarding the effect of the Danish elections being on the same day, by far the largest will be the increased turnout (in Denmark's case, I expect it to go from the mid 50s to the low 80s)

This EU election seems certain to have higher turnout than 2014. I do not think it will pass 50%, but it will be around 48-49%; probably the highest since 1999.
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Diouf
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« Reply #605 on: March 23, 2019, 07:49:55 AM »

Regarding the effect of the Danish elections being on the same day, by far the largest will be the increased turnout (in Denmark's case, I expect it to go from the mid 50s to the low 80s)

Agree the turnout will likely be very high in that case. In terms of party performance, it can be hard to predict how the effect will be as we have little precedent of whether voters will ticket split or not, and whether the effect of candidate quality will be smaller than usual. If there was no general election, I would be fairly certain that the People's Movement against the EU will make it in, but they could perhaps be forgotten if a general election campaign gets all the focus. Without a general election, I would be skeptical of such a high result for the Social Democrats as in the above poll, but if it's held as the same time as a Frederiksen landslide, then it might be more plausible.
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Mike88
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« Reply #606 on: March 23, 2019, 08:18:19 PM »

In a new setback, PPM, People's Monarchist Party, votes against André Ventura being the main candidate for the EP elections:

The PPM national council has voted against André Ventura being the main candidate for the EP elections, calling him "racist" and "populist" This mean that Ventura has to have his party legalized until the April 15th, the deadline to present candidates. His party was adverted by the Constitutional Court for having signatures of children and others. He says that he has collected an extra 1,000 new signatures and will deliver them next Monday to the Court.

The proposed coalition between Enough! and PPM could also be dead. We'll see.

In another U-turn, PPM, People's Monarchist Party, approved André Ventura as the main candidate for the Enough! coalition for the EP elections. After refusing Ventura's name as the main candidate, the party did a re-vote and an overwhelming number approved his name. The coalition called "Enough!" will be composed by PPM, PPV/CDC (Portugal pro life party), Ventura's party, Enough!, which isn't legal yet, and Democracy 21, a movement that wants to become a party.

The coalition will be officially announced next week, although PPM says it has different views and manifestos compared with Ventura. For the 5th place in the list, Ventura asked a police officer, Hugo Ernano, that was convicted of fatally shooting a kid during a police chase back in 2008. Ernano is still considering because police officers are barred from political activity in Portugal.
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Mike88
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« Reply #607 on: March 24, 2019, 08:49:06 PM »
« Edited: March 25, 2019, 03:56:32 AM by Mike88 »

Portugal, Aximage poll from March:

Vote share %: (compared with the February poll)

34.1% PS (nc), 8/9 seats
29.1% PSD (+4.3), 7/8
  9.2% CDU (+0.9), 2
  7.6% BE (-1.6), 2
  7.3% CDS (-0.7), 1/2
  2.0% Alliance (+0.2), 0
  1.9% PAN (+0.5), 0
  8.8% Others/Invalid (+1.8 ), 0

44.5% Turnout (+6.3)

Poll conducted between 9 and 13 March 2019. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.00%.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #608 on: March 25, 2019, 07:20:28 AM »

France, Ipsos poll

LREM: 23.5%
RN: 21% (or 22% without a Yellow Vest list)
LR: 12%
EELV: 8%
FI: 7.5% (8% without a Yellow Vest list)
PS-Place publique: 6.5%
(DLF at 5% without a Yellow Vest list)


On the EU:
If the EU were abandoned tomorrow, what would you feel?
-Big regrets: 51%
-Indifference: 31%
-Relief: 18%

On a scale 0-10 (0 totally opposed, 10 totally in favor), how would you rate your opinion of the EU?
- 7-10 (in favor): 47%
- 4-6 (neither in favor or opposed): 37%
- 0-3 (opposed): 16%
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Diouf
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« Reply #609 on: March 25, 2019, 11:41:43 AM »
« Edited: March 25, 2019, 12:01:31 PM by Diouf »

PD also ahead of M5S in EP poll. Lega at 28 seats, which I guess on current polls is not fully enough to beat CDU/CSU as the biggest delegation. Fratelli D'Italia only of the minor parties to cross the threshold.

Lega 33.0% 28 seats
PD 21.2% 18 seats
M5S 21.1% 18 seats
FI 9.7% 8 seats
FdI 4.1% 4 seats
Lista sinistra 3.0%
+E 2.7%
Onda Verde e Civica 1.8%


http://sondaggibidimedia.com/sondaggio-bidimedia-elezioni-europee-24-3/
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« Reply #610 on: March 25, 2019, 04:43:05 PM »

This isn't a joke: if the UK have EU elections after all, UKIP plans to put the YouTuber Sargon of Akkad on its list.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #611 on: March 28, 2019, 04:38:57 AM »

Julia Reda, the sole MEP for the Pirate Party and currently sitting with the Green group, has announced that she has left her party and urged her supporters not to vote Pirate on May 26.

Her reason: The no. 2 candidate on the German Pirate Party list, Gilles Bordelais, who also happens to be Reda's former chief of staff, is facing sexual harassment allegations.
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Diouf
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« Reply #612 on: March 28, 2019, 04:42:24 AM »

Vestager seems like the spitzenkandidat in all but name. She will represent ALDE in the main TV debate at EBU, which it seems Guy Verhofstadt was not all that happy about. The EBU debate will be on 15 May at 21:00, from the Brussels plenary chamber.

http://newsmonkey.be/article/93407
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #613 on: March 29, 2019, 10:37:14 AM »

With the third defeat of May's deal, the likelihood of UK participating in this election just went up to about 90%. What a debacle.
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Diouf
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« Reply #614 on: March 29, 2019, 02:56:48 PM »

Angelika Mlinar, who was elected a MEP in Austria in 2014 for NEOS, is running in Slovenia for Stranka Alenke Bratušek in 2019. Mlinar has Carinthian Slovene heritage. I'm not sure I have seen other incumbent MEPs run in another country this year?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #615 on: March 30, 2019, 02:06:06 AM »

Angelika Mlinar, who was elected a MEP in Austria in 2014 for NEOS, is running in Slovenia for Stranka Alenke Bratušek in 2019. Mlinar has Carinthian Slovene heritage. I'm not sure I have seen other incumbent MEPs run in another country this year?

Not sure about MEPs, but Katerina Anastasiou- the frontrunner for the Austrian KPÖ (= Communist Party) - is a Greek Syriza politician.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #616 on: March 31, 2019, 01:09:32 AM »

In Austria, small parties have 2 weeks left to collect the 2.600 signatures needed to be on the ballot here.

So far, the KPÖ and EU-NO have both ca. 50% of the necessary signatures collected.

The progressive pan-European "Volt" has ca. 40% or 1.000 signatures.

The CPÖ has ca. 25% and another anti-EU party (EU-AUS) says that collection this time is "tough".

I think that the KPÖ will make it and there is a chance that EU-NO and Volt could get on the ballot with a final rush. But it's far from certain ...

https://www.sn.at/politik/innenpolitik/unterschriftensammeln-fuer-eu-wahl-laeuft-etwas-schleppend-68079634
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SPQR
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« Reply #617 on: March 31, 2019, 08:45:24 AM »

PD also ahead of M5S in EP poll. Lega at 28 seats, which I guess on current polls is not fully enough to beat CDU/CSU as the biggest delegation. Fratelli D'Italia only of the minor parties to cross the threshold.

Lega 33.0% 28 seats
PD 21.2% 18 seats
M5S 21.1% 18 seats
FI 9.7% 8 seats
FdI 4.1% 4 seats
Lista sinistra 3.0%
+E 2.7%
Onda Verde e Civica 1.8%


http://sondaggibidimedia.com/sondaggio-bidimedia-elezioni-europee-24-3/


Now the Greens have lost the support of Italia in Comune (civic, founded by ex-M5S Pizzarotti who is the mayor of Parma), which will join +Europa instead.
As for the "Lista di sinistra", there is no such thing as of now, it's not clear how the leftist parties will join. A (small) part might end up in the same list as PD.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #618 on: April 01, 2019, 02:59:41 AM »

I assume the chances of Estonian EKRE joining ECR are bigger if the coalition negotiations with Center and Isamaa succeed. If not, ENF might be the likeliest option.

This isn't a joke: if the UK have EU elections after all, UKIP plans to put the YouTuber Sargon of Akkad on its list.
Don't they have Tommy Robinson too?

Angelika Mlinar, who was elected a MEP in Austria in 2014 for NEOS, is running in Slovenia for Stranka Alenke Bratušek in 2019. Mlinar has Carinthian Slovene heritage. I'm not sure I have seen other incumbent MEPs run in another country this year?
Former Dutch VVD European Commissioner Neelie Kroes is running for Flemish Open VLD, but she doesn't actually plan on getting elected (and would presumably not take her seat in case she does get elected). Of course, in the past we've seen Cohn-Bendit pull the same trick.
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Ex-Assemblyman Steelers
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« Reply #619 on: April 01, 2019, 09:19:51 AM »


As for the "Lista di sinistra", there is no such thing as of now, it's not clear how the leftist parties will join. A (small) part might end up in the same list as PD.

Maybe to put Tsipras name on the list again

Vestager seems like the spitzenkandidat in all but name. She will represent ALDE in the main TV debate at EBU, which it seems Guy Verhofstadt was not all that happy about. The EBU debate will be on 15 May at 21:00, from the Brussels plenary chamber.

http://newsmonkey.be/article/93407

I think it's time for retirement.
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #620 on: April 01, 2019, 09:41:54 AM »

Is Alessandra Mussolini running? She was just in the news for her Twitter meltdown.
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Mike88
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« Reply #621 on: April 01, 2019, 02:05:33 PM »

Portugal: Constitutional Court rejects the name of André Ventura's coalition, Enough.

The Constitutional Court has rejected the name of André Ventura's coalition, Enough. The right-wing coalition, with PPM, Portugal pro life, Democracy 21 and Ventura's party, Enough - which isn't legal yet, is now considering skipping the EP elections, although the decision is not yet final. The Court says that because the coalition name is the same of Ventura's party, that could confuse voters. The Court has given two weeks in order to change the name. Ventura is quite upset by this ruling and, like the coalition, is considering dropping out.
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Diouf
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« Reply #622 on: April 03, 2019, 04:16:23 PM »

The Vestager effect is seemingly becoming evident in Danish EU polls.
In the below Norstat poll for Altinget & Jyllands-Posten, the party is at 11.7% and 2 seats.
Also worth noting that the People's Movement against the EU is also in a very tight place here. They just win the 14th and last seat ahead of Social Democrats here.

Social Democrats 23.4% 3 seats
SPP 6.1% 1 seat

Liberals 19.2% 3 seats
Conservatives 4,8% 1 seat
Liberal Alliance 2,7% 0 seats

DPP 15,3% 2 seats

Social Liberals 11,7% 2 seats
Alternative 3,3% 0 seats

Red-Green Alliance 6,4% 1 seat
People's Movement against the EU 5,5% 1 seat
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #623 on: April 05, 2019, 02:11:52 AM »

1st SPÖ campaign video (click on German subtitles, translated to English):

https://youtu.be/x4ZdPDzwoTQ

"A Europe for the people, not big business."
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #624 on: April 05, 2019, 10:30:16 AM »
« Edited: April 25, 2019, 10:40:42 AM by Tender Branson »

The SPÖ's 124-page election platform and some of their new posters:

 

 

https://europa.spoe.at/unser-wahlprogramm
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