European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Tirnam]

France - BVA

LREM: 25% (+5 since december)
RN: 19% (-1)
LR: 10% (=)
EELV: 9% (+2)
FI: 7.5% (-2.5)
DLF: 6% (-1)
PS: 5% (=)
Other lists under 5% (with a Yellow Vests list at 4%)

Turnout index: between 47% and 52%
52% can change their mind
62% are interested by the election.

[Mike88]

Portugal: André Ventura's Enough! party and several other right-wing parties, are negotiating an "anti-system" coalition for the EP elections:


André Ventura's Enough! party campaign poster in Porto city.

André Ventura's new party, Enough!, isn't legalized yet but it is already making contacts with several smaller right-wing parties to form an "anti-system" coalition. Until now, he has forged deals with Democracy 21, a movement that is collecting signatures to become a party and PPV/CDC - Portugal Pro Life/Christian Democracy Citizens. Adding to the list, seems to be PPM - People's Monarchist Party. The party has confirmed they have been talking with Ventura, but a deal with him is still on the works.

This coalition, if gathers Enough!, PPV/CDC and PPM, could get, with my math and looking to past election results of PPM and PPV/CDC, almost 2% of the votes in the EP elections, not enough to win a seat, but still, a respectable account.

[bigic]

2%? I think this is rather pessimistic, as the Spanish "Vox" party was too a marginal party until the Andalusian election. Unfortunately most estimates of the results of populist parties are pessimistic.

[Mike88]

2%? I think this is rather pessimistic, as the Spanish "Vox" party was too a marginal party until the Andalusian election. Unfortunately most estimates of the results of populist parties are pessimistic.

That's just my hunch. There's a big protest party also on the ballot, PAN, that can steal votes from the left and right, but Ventura may be underestimated, no doubt. He's most known to be a football commentator, pro-Benfica, that infuriates Porto and Sporting fans. However, as a politician he became famous because of his remarks about gypsies and, currently, for his support of castration of pedophiles and the implementation of life imprisonment.

He could appeal to some voters, particularly elderly votes who are viewers of CMTV, the fourth largest TV channel in Portugal with a viewing share of around 5-6%, somedays it ties with RTP1. The channel, like the newspaper, is very, very dramatic, reports killing sprees across Portugal, stabbings, robberies, corruption scandals and other stories that can create a sense of insecurity, which in the majority of times are completely false and over the top. Ventura is a football commentator in CMTV and also writes an op-ed about politics once a week. He could appeal to voters that feel a sense of insecurity, impunity and that things are out of control. We'll see, but i am sticking with my hunch of around 2%.

[Tirnam]

A few polls for France

Ifop
82% say it is important to vote at the European election, but Ifop estimates the turnout at 42%.

Ipsos
LREM: 23%
RN: 22%
LR: 12%
EELV: 8.5%
LFI: 9.5%
DLF: 6.5%
PS: 5.5%
Générations: 5.5%

Interested by the election: 74%
Turnout: 40-44%

Harris Interactive
LREM: 22%
RN: 20%
LR: 12%
EELV: 8%
LFI: 8%
DLF: 6%
PS: 6%

[Tender Branson]

Austria EU poll (Market for the "Standard" newspaper, Feb. 18-20, n=804):

30% ÖVP (+3% compared with 2014)
25% SPÖ (+1%)
21% FPÖ (+1.5%)
11% NEOS (+3%)
  8% Greens (-6.5%)
  2% NOW/I1E (+2%)
  3% Others (-4%)

Turnout: ~50% (+5%)

The poll also shows that Austrians are strongly pro-EU and €, possibly a result of the toxic Brexit talks.

https://derstandard.at/2000098517532/Einstellung-zur-EU-deutlich-positiver-als-vor-fuenf-Jahren

[Tender Branson]

If the FPÖ miraculously becomes the strongest party in the election, they would likely get 6 seats.

The FPÖ presented their list today and they would have a 50% women share (3/3) in that scenario.

With 5 seats, it would be 2 women and 3 men and with 4 seats it would be just 1 woman (Steger).

[Former President tack50]

PSOE has announced that they will be running the current foreign affairs minister, former speaker of the European Parliament (2004-2007) and briefly PSOE leader (1998-1999), Josep Borrell, as their number 1 candidate

https://guardian.ng/news/world/spains-foreign-minister-to-stand-for-european-elections/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josep_Borrell



It is said that he will probably try to get a high ranking job in the European Commission, probably Commission Vice President.

I personally don't like this because:

1: He has done an amazing job as foreign affairs minister, and I'd rather have him stay on his post than go (back) to the EU

2: In a way this feels like a concession to the Catalan secessionists, who hate Borrell with a passion as he shows a very different kind of unionist; he is a clearly left wing unionist. In a way he is one of the politicians most hated by the secessionists. I am open to concessions to the secessionists, but Borrell should stay.

Either way he will also do a great job in the EU.

[Umengus]

France -Elabe poll

LRem 22 -1,5
RN 22 +1,5
LR 13 +0,5
Green 10 +1
FI 8 -1,5
DLF 5,5 +0,5
PS 5 -1
Generations 3 +1
communist 2,5 +0,5
UDI 2,5 -1

Turnout= 41 % (2014: 42 %)

[FredLindq]

The first opinionpoll for the EP-election in Sweden. Source: Europaportalen/Sifo

Party    Sifo 2019   EP-election 2014
Moderaterna (EPP)   16,40  (4)    13,65 (3)
Centerpartiet (ALDE)   5,80 (1)   6,49 (1)
Liberalerna (ALDE)   3,80 (0)   9,91 (2)
Kristdemokraterna (EPP)    8,60 (2)   5,93 (1)
Socialdemokraterna (S&D)   27,50 (6)   24,19 (5)
Vänsterpartiet (GUE)   10,00 (2)   6,30. (1)
Miljöpartiet de gröna (Green)   6,40 (2)   15,41 (4)
Sverigedemokraterna  (ECR)   18,00 (4)   9,67 (2)
Feministiskt intiativ (S&D)   1,2 (0)   5,49 (1)
Övriga partier   2,4   2,96

I would say that S and M will not get this many seats especially not S.

[DavidB.]

FVD have applied for membership in ACRE and its parliamentary group ECR. Dutch CU and SGP are also in ECR. SGP probably won't have a problem sitting with FVD, but CU leader Gert-Jan Segers said he intends to block FVD's application to ECR since supporting Nexit would be incompatible with ECR's mission to reform the European Union. An interesting statement given that the biggest party in the ECR parliamentary group explicitly campaigned on leaving the European Union in the last general election, and the Sweden Democrats still supported Swexit when they joined ECR too.

But it is unclear whether CU can actually block FVD from joining. CU are not in the overarching European ACRE party, and supposedly ECR, French Debout La France and FVD are signing a joint declaration on Europe's future today - which would seem like a first step towards FVD joining ECR. FVD will bring 2-3 seats to the table and CU only one, so I can imagine CU would just be told to shove it. Once the Tories leave, ECR seems too right-wing for them anyway (though their European MP Peter van Dalen is very much on the conservative side of the party, unlike Segers). To be continued.

[DavidB.]

FVD seem likely to join ECR now: ECR leading candidate Jan Zahradil (ODS, Czechia) and PiS prominent Ryszard Legutko are sharing the stage with Thierry Baudet in Paris today, and CU don't actually seem to have a veto. According to NRC Handelsblad, an ECR meeting on FVD joining escalated: CU MEP Peter van Dalen attempted to block FVD's attempt to join, but there was little understanding for his position and Sweden Democrats MEP Peter Lundgren made it clear to him that CU only has one seat and FVD has much more potential, upon which Van Dalen would have left the meeting with slamming doors. NRC note that CU may be on the way out, to EPP.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

FVD seem likely to join ECR now: ECR leading candidate Jan Zahradil (ODS, Czechia) and PiS prominent Ryszard Legutko are sharing the stage with Thierry Baudet in Paris today, and CU don't actually seem to have a veto. According to NRC Handelsblad, an ECR meeting on FVD joining escalated: CU MEP Peter van Dalen attempted to block FVD's attempt to join, but there was little understanding for his position and Sweden Democrats MEP Peter Lundgren made it clear to him that CU only has one seat and FVD has much more potential, upon which Van Dalen would have left the meeting with slamming doors. NRC note that CU may be on the way out, to EPP.

Not the most important thing, but:
Wouldnt' call Legutko PiS prominent, he is indeed important person in PiS PE representation (and as a person compared to typical PiS goon he is very inteligent) but in the party and in Poland usually people who are in PE means nothing.

[Mike88]

Portugal: PS list (PES) presented:

1. Pedro Marques, former minister of infrastructures
2. Maria Manuel Leitão Marques, former minister of modernization
3. Pedro Silva Pereira, current MEP; former minister in Sócrates cabinets
4. Margarida Marques, former secretary of European affairs
5. André Bradford, nominated by PS-Azores
6. Sara Cerdas, nominated by PS-Madeira
7. Carlos Zorrinho, current MEP
8. Isabel Santos, current of MP from Porto district
9. Manuel Pizarro, leader of PS-Porto
10. Isabel Estrada
11. João Albuquerque, leader of the Young European Socialists
12. Selene Martinho

The first 12 candidates are 50% male and 50% female. The rest, until number 21, has 0% of being elected.

Out of the lists:

Francisco Assis, current MEP
Ana Gomes, current MEP
Maria João Rodrigues, current MEP
Liliana Rodrigues, current MEP
Ricardo Serrão Santos, current MEP

To add also, the PSD (EPP) will present and approve their lists on March 13th.

[DavidB.]

Following the Swedish Moderates' call on the EPP to sever ties with Fidesz, which was more or less supported by the Finnish NCP (KOK) who want "next steps" to be considered to "evaluate Fidesz' membership in EPP", four parties have now introduced a motion to expel Fidesz from the parliamentary group. The four parties are Belgian CD&V and cdH, Luxembourgish CSV, and Portuguese CDS-PP - the latter have written their own letter separate from the former three. The Dutch CDA support the motion introduced by their Benelux EPP partners. But it remains to be seen whether this will go anywhere in an increasingly right-wing EPP with parties such as PP, GERB, HDZ, Les Republicains and the ÖVP. Ultimately, as is often the case, CDU-CSU will probably have the biggest say on this question.

[bigic]

Do the non-EU parties have the right to vote on this? Because parties such as SNS (Serbia) and VMRO-DPMNE (North Macedonia) are pro-Fidesz

[DavidB.]

Do the non-EU parties have the right to vote on this? Because parties such as SNS (Serbia) and VMRO-DPMNE (North Macedonia) are pro-Fidesz

No, they don't - otherwise it would indeed undoubtedly be easier for Fidesz.

[Andrea]

Italy
Poll by Istituto Piepoli. Fieldwork: 25/2/2019

Lega 31.5%
5 Starts 25%
PD 18.5%
Forza Italia 11%
FdI 4.5%
+Europa 3.5%

[DavidB.]

CD&V, cdH, CSV, CDA, CDS-PP, KOK and M now officially support a vote on the expulsion of Fidesz from EPP, which means it's happening: the threshold of seven parties from five countries has been reached.

[Umengus]

Italy
Poll by Istituto Piepoli. Fieldwork: 25/2/2019

Lega 31.5%
5 Starts 25%
PD 18.5%
Forza Italia 11%
FdI 4.5%
+Europa 3.5%

Ipsos

Lega: 32,9
M5: 23,1
PD: 18,5
FI: 10,4
FDL : 4,7
+EU: 3,3
ex-LEU: 2,4
PAP: 1,7

[Omega21]

CD&V, cdH, CSV, CDA, CDS-PP, KOK and M now officially support a vote on the expulsion of Fidesz from EPP, which means it's happening: the threshold of seven parties from five countries has been reached.

Hope the other members are sensible and shut down this nonsense.

Also, funny that the parties who started the initiative don't even get 1/3 of the support Fidesz gets in Hungary, so I guess they're just a bit butthurt over it.

[DavidB.]

CD&V, cdH, CSV, CDA, CDS-PP, KOK and M now officially support a vote on the expulsion of Fidesz from EPP, which means it's happening: the threshold of seven parties from five countries has been reached.

Hope the other members are sensible and shut down this nonsense.

Hope not. Fidesz are too good for the EPP, which mostly consists of parties that until this day carry out policies that are wrecking our continent. Their expulsion should be the catalyst to form one big right-wing Euroskeptic group, uniting ENF, EFD and ECR, that would even have a shot at coming first. Probably won't happen because of silly egos, but it should.

[Umengus]

CD&V, cdH, CSV, CDA, CDS-PP, KOK and M now officially support a vote on the expulsion of Fidesz from EPP, which means it's happening: the threshold of seven parties from five countries has been reached.

Hope the other members are sensible and shut down this nonsense.

Also, funny that the parties who started the initiative don't even get 1/3 of the support Fidesz gets in Hungary, so I guess they're just a bit butthurt over it.

Rumors is that cdh (just one guy, in the best case) is going to quit to ALDE. So a good pretext...

[bigic]

The Greek "New Democracy" party also supports expulsion of Fidesz from EPP.

https://twitter.com/kmitsotakis/status/1101543005016739840

In my opinion somewhat surprising of them, because just a few days earlier they met with Russian government officials and representatives of United Russia, which is even more authoritarian than Fidesz.

https://twitter.com/kmitsotakis/status/1101139940354732033

[Diouf]

Konservative lead candidate for the EP19 elections, Pernille Weiss, has said that she supports at least a suspension, and perhaps even exclusion, of Fidesz. However, she has said the party's final decision will be taken by the leadership; party leader Søren Pape hasn't commented yet.