South Australian state election - 17th March 2018

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Stuart

Named for the famous explorer John McDouall Stuart, one of the most accomplished Australian explorers. Stuart led the first expedition to traverse Australia's interior, and his expedition is famed for not losing a single man. The route he established would later be used for the path of the Overland Telegraph and later the Ghan. Stuart is centred on Port Augusta, the midpoint of the Iron Triangle. Before 1993 Northern SA was divided between Eyre, which covered the rural areas, and Stuart, which covered Port Augusta and Port Pirie, however after 1993 the seats were realigned with Stuart now covering both Port Augusta and most of the rural areas, with Port Pirie getting it's own seat. The new Stuart became a safe Liberal seat, and since then has only grew more so, with Labor-voting Port Augusta being outvoted by the increasingly conservative bent of the rural communities. Normally a safe seat Xenophon performed very well here in 2016, so SA Best could pose a threat.

[Mazda]

Flinders, of course, being the only seat ever won by the Single Tax kooks back in the day, with Edward Craigie being elected in 1930, '33 and '38 before being defeated in 1941 when the electorate realised that for the previous decade he'd spoken about nothing but the theory that replacing all taxes with a tax on the unimproved value of land would be a good idea. His speeches were reportedly quite boring.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Frome

Named after Edward Charles Frome, the third surveyor-general of South Australia the seat was created in 1993. Frome is centred on Port Pirie, the eastern point of the Iron Triangle, combining the city with rural area to the southeast. Although theoretically marginal the Liberals have always over-performed here. After Premier Rob Kerin resigned in 2008 the ensuing by-election was a three-way nail-biter, ultimately won by Independent Port Pirie mayor Geoff Brock. Geoff Brock has easily won re-election both times since. After the 2014 election resulted in a hung parliament Brock ultimately supported Labor for a record fourth term. Despite his pitiful vote in the rural areas his unsurmontable advantage in Port Pirie (in 2014 he got 68% of the first preference vote in Port Pirie) means he is a shoo-in for re-election.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Flinders, of course, being the only seat ever won by the Single Tax kooks back in the day, with Edward Craigie being elected in 1930, '33 and '38 before being defeated in 1941 when the electorate realised that for the previous decade he'd spoken about nothing but the theory that replacing all taxes with a tax on the unimproved value of land would be a good idea. His speeches were reportedly quite boring.

The Eyre peninsula has a thing for third parties, be it the Single Tax League, or the SA Nationals (near-nonexistent in SA). It's just one of the many aspects that make SA politics so...... unique.

[Lachi]

SA Best don't have a candidate in Stuart, just fyi.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Narungga

Goyder has been renamed for the Narungga people, the traditional owners of most of the Yorke Peninsula. Goyder itself was a renamed Yorke Peninsula. Compromising entirely of the reliably conservative rural Yorke Peninsula the seat has never been held by Labor in any of its three incarnations, however Xenophon recorded a strong performance in 2016, so SA Best could pose a threat.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

SA Best don't have a candidate in Stuart, just fyi.

I keep forgetting about that, that Xenophon isn't putting up a candidate in their eighth best seat where they got 25.8% of the FPV senate vote.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Schubert

Named for Max Schubert, the winemaker who created Penfolds Grange, Schubert appropriately covers the picturesque Barossa Valley, Australia's premier wine-producing area. The seat loses rural territory in the east, replacing it with rural territory to the north and west of Gawler. In 1965 Barossa and Glenelg were the two seats which flipped to finally hand government to Labor, overcoming the Playmander. However since the establishment of Custance in 1985, renamed to Schubert in 1997, the seat has always been on of the safest Liberal seats. Although Xenophon performed reasonably well here in 2016 this seat shall remain a safe Liberal seat.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Chaffey

Named for the Chaffey brothers, who brought the innovation of large-scale irrigation to the Murray-Darling basin, The seat covers the fertile Riverlands the Chaffey brothers greatly helped. Extremely marginal through the 1960s the end of rural malapportionment and the introduction of one-person one-vote the seat gained significant, conservative, territory. The Nationals won it in 1997 and Karlene Maywald only lost in 2010 due to supporting the Labor government, earning her a swing of 20% against her. Although extremely safe for the Liberals on previous performance this was Xenophon's second best seat, getting more than 30% of the vote.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Hammond

Named for Ruby Hammond, the first indigenous women to stand for South Australian parliament. The seat is centred on Murray Bridge, stretching east to incorporate the Mallee. It, and it's predecessors Ridley and Murray-Mallee were represented between 1979 and 2006 by loose cannon Peter Lewis, who was finally expelled from the Liberals in 2000, although he was re-elected in 2002 in 2006 he realised the writing was on the wall and attempted, and failed miserably, to be elected into the Legislative Council. Although previously safe for the Liberals Xenophon performed well here in 2016, and is a definite threat.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Mackillop

Named for Mary MacKillop, or if you want to be proper Saint Mary of the Cross MacKillop, the first Australian to be canonised as a Catholic saint, who founded the Sisters of St Joseph at Penola. The seat covers the South East of South Australia, stretching from the mouth of the Murray to the outskirts of Mount Gambier, named Victoria before 1993. The seat has been held by the Liberals since 1956, and is one of the safest in the state. Unusually, unlike all other rural electorates Nick Xenophon has never recorded a significant vote in Mackillop, meaning that the seat is completely safe for the Liberals, in contrast to all other rural electorates.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Mount Gambier

Named after the city it represents, Mount Gambier, which gets it's name from the extinct volcano on the slopes of which the city is located, it was called Gordon between 1993 and 2002. Last won by Labor in 1973 since then the seat has moved increasingly to the right, however the seat is known for its strong independent streak, since 1975 it has been represented by Independents for almost as long as it has been represented by Liberals. The seat looks to be a wildcard, while on paper the Liberals should pick it up with ease, they have a string candidate against a former Liberal who was elected for the first time in 2014 and was expelled over accusations of missapropriation of more than 2$ million dollars in taxpayer's money. However a ReachTEL poll showed him holding his seat with ease, and alternatively this is fertile ground for Nick Xenophon and SA Best could easily come though the middle taking advantage of a divided conservative vote.

[Lachi]

Here is SAB's state policies, by the way. Apparently they think that having less parliamentary representation is a good thing. They want to reduce the size of the Assembly from 47 to 34, and the Council from 22 to 17.

https://sabest.org.au/state-policies/

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Finiss

Named after B. T. Finniss, South Australia's first premier the seat was called Alexandra before 1993. Finiss and Alexandra have always compromised of the Fleurieu Peninsula and Kangaroo Island (bar 1993 when it was put in Flinders for "equality" purposes). However this round of redistricting has done away with this decades long practice, with Finiss now compromising solely of Victoria Harbour-Goolwa. The seat and it's predecessor have never elected a Labor member and have long been the most reliably Liberal seat in the state, however things look set to change this year, as Finiss recorded Xenophon's third best performance, and with the Liberals position weakened yet further by the retirement of the sitting MP this seat would be one of the most likely SA Best seats.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Mawson

Named for legendary Australian Antarctic explorer Douglas Mawson, the seat of Mawson is the South Australian Bellwether. Since it's establishment in 1970 it has missed the winner only once, in 2002. However the seat contested in 2018 is better described as a totally new seat, as the redrawn seat contains only a third of the current seat, with tow thirds of the seat coming from other seats. These changes flip the Labor margin of 5.6 to a Liberal margin of 3.2. The current seat is a classic outer suburban (or as you Americans say, exurban) electorate, centered on McLaren Vale, the new seat loses all the suburban territory in the north in Noarlunga, and in exchange takes the rural Fleurieu Peninsula and Kangaroo Island. This redrawing completely changes the character of the seat, turning it from a key marginal to a seat which strongly leans Liberal. This seat was one of Xenophon's best, so SA Best should be a strong challenger to both Labor and Liberal. Despite the dramatic shift to the Liberals however, do not underestimate Labor here as SA Labor should never be underestimated in it's ability to defy harmful redistributions ('10, '14 etc).

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Heysen

Named for Hans Heysen, a prominent Australian watercolour landscape artist, the seat is centred on the leafy outer suburbs of the Adelaide Hills. Known as Stirling before 1970 the seat Has never been won by Labor, and bar it's first two elections in '38 and '41 in which it elected an Independent the seat has always voted Liberal or Liberal Country League. The seat is a haven for third parties, with the Democrats almost winning it twice in '97 and '02, and last time the Greens beat Labor for second. Xenophon's only House of Reps seat of Mayo is likewise centred on the Adelaide Hills (though also containing the Fleurieu Peninsula and Kangaroo Island) and which the Democrats likewise almost winning in 1998 and the Greens almost winning in the 2008 by-election.  The seat had Xenophon's best performance, getting a third of the vote before preferences, and SA Best probably has their best or second best chance here.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Kavel

Named for Lutheran pastor August Kavel who established the Lutheran Church of Australia the seat of Kavel is centred Mount Barker, the Adelaide Hills' main town, and the rural areas which lie to the east of the Adelaide Hills. Kavel was one of the Democrats best seats, beating out Labor twice, in the '92 by-election and in '97. Despite this since it's establishment in 1970 the seat has always been a safe blue ribbon Liberal seat, never finding itself under threat. However this seems certain to change as the seat was one of Xenophon's best seats, and with the sitting member retiring it is one of SA Best's best targets.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Morialta

Deriving its name from the Kaurna (the traditional owners of the Adelaide region) word mariyatala, meaning east flowing river. Known as Coles before 2002 over time the seat has moved increasingly rightwards, with the trend continuing this election as the seat itself moves eastward, increasing the Liberal margin. When established Coles was a Labor leaning seat, however since 1973 Labor won it once, only in their 2006 landslide. Xenophon performed well here, his fifth best performance in the state, so if they can beat Labor they have a good chance here.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Newland

Named for pioneer pastoralist Simpson Newland, the seat of Newland is one of four seats the Electoral Commission has flipped on notionals from Labor to Liberal, with the Labor margin of 1.4 flipped to a Liberal margin of 0.1. This is caused by losing suburban Labor territory around Modbury and replacing it with more conservative rural territory to the east. Known as Tea Tree Gully before 1977 the seat has long been a key marginal. The seat is exceptionally close and could go either way, with it being further complicated by the large Xenophon vote.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

King

Named for Len King, former South Australian Attorney General and Chief Justice of the South Australian Supreme Court is a new seat, which although being treated by the ECSA as the successor to Napier actually draws a majority of its electors from Little Para (renamed Elizabeth) and Wright. The seat is extremely marginal, and without any incumbent member contesting this seat is one of the Liberals best chances of a pickup.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Light

Named for William Light, the first Surveyor-General of South Australia, the seat of Light has long been centred on the town of Gawler. The redistribution has stripped Light of its rural areas in the north of the seat, replacing it with parts of Munno Parra to the south, thus boosting Labor's margin. Before 2002 the seat was a safe Liberal seat having only once been represented by a Labor member in the '40s. However in 2002, when parts of the deprived and overwhelming Labor suburb of Munno Para, making the formerly safe seat marginal. The seat has continued to move left since then, and with the loss of the remaining rural areas in exchange for more of Munno Parra that trend shall continue. The seat remains marginal, though a Liberal gain is unlikely unless the swing is truly on.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Elizabeth

Little Para has been renamed Elizabeth, it's name before 2006, drawing its name form the suburb of Elizabeth. The name change is required as the redistribution stripped Little Para of its more rural areas to the east, and with it Little Para reservoir, of which it drew its name, replacing it with suburbs to the north from Napier. This has strengthened the Labor margin from 7.4 to 9.9. Thus the new seat returns to being fairly safe for Labor.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Taylor

Named for Doris Taylor, the founder of Australian Meals on Wheels, Taylor covers Adelaide's northern fringe on the outskirts of Salisbury. The redistribution has simply swapped which suburbs it takes to the south. The seat has always been a safe Labor seat, and there is no indication of that changing.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Ramsay

Named for Alexander Ramsay, the longtime General Manager of the South Australian Housing Trust, the seat of Ramsay has long been one of the safest in the state, with two of its three members serving as Premier (Arnold and Rann). Known as Salisbury before 1985 the seat is, appropriately, centred on Salisbury, and has never elected a Liberal member. The second safest in the state on 2014 Labor is as safe as houses here.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Wright

Named for Edmund Wright, the prominent Adelaide architect who designed Adelaide Town Hall, Wright has long been a semi-marginal Labor seat centred on the outer northeastern suburbs. Created in 1993 taking in much of Briggs the seat was won by the Liberals in its first election in '93, however Labor has won every time since. The redistribution has reorientated the seat to a more east-west arrangement, boosting Labor's margin. Despite the boost to the margin the sitting mp is retiring, which will hurt Labor's chances.