South Australian state election - 17th March 2018

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Playford

Named for Thomas Playford IV, who's 26 year reign as premier makes him the longest serving government leader in the history of the Westminster system. The seat however is ironically a safe Labor seat. The seat has been radically redrawn from being based on the angle between Grand Junction and Main North to the angle between Main North and Port Wakefield. In the process the seat has lost three quarters of it's current territory. Despite all this, however, the seats margin barely changes, remaining safe for Labor.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Florey

Named for the pharmacologist Howard Florey, who jointly won the 1945 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine for the discovery of penicillin. The seat of Florey has long been centred on Modbury, however the EDBC's redrawing of the northern suburbs has changed that, losing most of the current seat including Modbury itself and taking on the core of Playford. Although this dramatically boosted the Labor margin from 2.5 to 9.2 (at the expense of Newland), this has resulted in an ugly preselection fight. This arose because both faction agreed to secure Playford for former Labor state secretary Michael Brown, leaving the current Playford MP Jack Snelling and current Florey MP Frances Bedford "double-bunked" as you Americans call it. Jack Snelling ultimately prevailed leading to Bedford leaving Labor to run as an Independent, though promising to continue to support Weatherhill and to always vote Labor party line (and if I remember correctly, to continue to take the Labor whip). Jack Snelling later withdrew as the Labor candidate but Frances Bedford declined the invitation to rejoin Labor and become the official Labor candidate, so instead Labor is running senior public servant Rik Morris. Xenophon anounced tacit support for Frances Bedford and withdrew the SA Best candidate. Although this electorate won't affect who's premier, as both contenders will support Labor, it most certainly remains one of the key seats to watch.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Port Adelaide

Named for the Port integral to the electorate's economy, Port Adelaide is one of the safest Labor seats in the state. In 1970 the seat was abolished and became part of neighbouring Semaphore, which was later renamed Hart in 1993, then in 2002 reverted back to its historical name. Throughout all its incarnations, however, the seat remained one of the safest Labor seats in the state, with the only non-Labor member being the Independent Labor member between '79 and '93. The redistribution stripped it of Mawson Lakes in the east, recentering it back on its namesake and the Lefevre Peninsula, remaining safely Labor the entire time.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Loving all of your seat profiles! Are you saving Hartley for last?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Loving all of your seat profiles! Are you saving Hartley for last?

No, I'm doing it in a roughly geographic manner, Hartley is currently 6th on the list.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Anyone got any predictions/thoughts on what might happen on Saturday? I'll post my final predictions on Friday.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Anyone got any predictions/thoughts on what might happen on Saturday? I'll post my final predictions on Friday.

Well firstly I need to get around to doing the other 20ish seat guides, but after that, if I have time, I'll try and do an assessment of, firstly, which seats are definitely safe for each party, then after that an assessment of the marginals of the competitive parties in each and maybe a rating for some of them.
However, if there's one piece of advice I could give it would be this: WATCH HARTLEY. There's been two or three ReachTEL seat polls there and they're all over the place. Hartley will be important in deciding NXT's influence, because, in my mind, if Xenophon isn't in parliament the party will probably fall apart a la Palmer United.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Prediction time!

Firstly, the numbers:

Liberal - 21
Labor - 18
SA Best - 5
Independent - 3 (Troy Bell, Geoff Brock and Frances Bedford)

LIKELY GOVERNMENT - ALP/SA-BEST/Brock/Bedford, then LIB/SA-BEST/Bell.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Adelaide - Liberal hold, if only because Labor aren’t popular anymore, and this key seat has an incumbent Liberal MP.
Badcoe - Likely Labor hold.
Black - Likely Liberal hold.
Bragg - Easy Liberal hold, the day this leaves Liberal hands is the day I sprout a tail.
Chaffey - Easy Liberal hold.
Cheltenham - Premier Weatherill will hold this easily.
Colton - Voting with the state since 1970, Colton shouldn’t break this record, although, like with everything in life, there’s a first time for everything. Liberal, because why not?
Croydon - One of the worst ever MPs to have ever served in an Australian parliament is finally leaving... GOOD RIDDANCE! Oh, and easy Labor hold.
Davenport - Liberal hold, although don’t be surprised of an outside chance of SA Best picking this up.
Dunstan - Likely Liberal hold, although expect this to remain a key marginal for the forseeable future. Should Marshall retire from Parliament if he doesn’t become Premier, this could be a Labor gain at a by-election – Labor held Norwood (Dunstan’s name pre-2014) more often than not prior to 2010, and was held for many years by Premier Don Dunstan (1967/68, 1970-79).
Elder - Ugh… another contest where SA Best have made it hard… Given the sitting ALP member, she has an advantage, although the east of the seat is good Liberal territory. Liberal gain/notional hold, but could go either way.
Elizabeth - Labor hold.
Enfield - Likely Labor hold, unless SA Best do really well and soak up a lot of Green/Liberal preferences.
Finniss - Possible SA Best gain, especially with the outgoing Liberal MP.
Flinders - Easy Liberal hold.
Florey - Labor aren’t exactly popular at the moment, so I’ll give this one to Bedford, who’s represented some of this area since 1997.
Frome - Geoff Brock will win again, and like in 2014, will very likely be a key figure as to who forms the next Government of South Australia.
Gibson - The former member for Mitchell, and Marion mayor, ALP-GRN-IND-now-SABEST Kris Hanna, has a good chance, although on current numbers, I can see this being a re-run of 2014, where the Liberals win off his preferences. Maybe Hanna will join the Australian Conservatives next?
Giles - Labor aren’t mega popular anymore at the state level, so even this is an SA Best target decide their slip back in the polls. Possible SA Best gain.
Hammond - Given the state of the polls, Hammond is once again a key seat. Likely Liberal hold.
Hartley - Not a strong area for NXT/SA-Best, but Nick Xenophon will possibly win this seat, unless he belts someone on the main street of Campbelltown or Magill. The polls have tightened in the campaign, and this will be a nailbiter. Preferences are KEY.
Heysen - With former Liberal leader Isobel Redmond exiting Parliament, this will likely go to SA Best.
Hurtle Vale - Possible Labor hold, although don’t write off the Liberals and SA Best, given some of the area’s tilt that way (the old Fisher was a Liberal-leaning seat, although this has been diluted significantly) and love of former Liberal-turned-independent MP, the late Bob Such.
Kaurna - Labor hold.
Kavel - With the polls going more pro-Liberal/anti SA Best, and Kavel never being as pro-Democrat/NXT/SA Best as Heysen, I’ll put this as a possible Liberal hold.
King - With no SA Best or sitting MP, this will be a test of the old Red vs Blue fight… The Liberals could gain this easily, although word has it Labor has the upper hand.
Lee - SA Best are putting in the hard yards in here… 50/50 either way, slight edge to Labor given the receding of the SA-Best tide.
Light - Given the seat now hangs no further north than Gawler town itself, and into some northern parts of Elizabeth, this will likely stay with Labor.
MacKillop - Easy Liberal hold.
Mawson - Possible Liberal gain (notional win), especially with the addition of the territory from Finniss, while NXT polled really well here at the 2016 federal election, SA-BEST have slid in the polls a little. Don’t underestimate Leon Bignell (or ALP marginal seat holders in SA in general though).
Morialta - A key seat, Gardner has built a good vote since his election, but will it be enough to overcome SA Best? With Xenophon himself running in next-door Hartley, but current polls showing around 20% for SA Best, as opposed to 30%, and strong territory for the party to the south, I’m putting this in the Liberal column.
Morphett - Normally a safe Liberal seat, Morphett might be the hardest seat to predict in 2018 – a long serving member turned Independent, SA Best… this one’s doing my head in! Likely Liberal hold, unless McFeteridge’s preferences leak enough to help Labor. Bear in mind, Morphett was Liberal in 2006, when the Liberals were at their worst, so if Labor gain this, they will definitely win statewide with a majority.
Mount Gambier - Given what happened to Troy Bell, with his corruption scandal, this should be an easy Liberal re-gain. Keyword is SHOULD, as Bell is still apparently popular around here. Bell to hold.
Narungga - The Nick Xenophon Team did well here in 2016, implying SA Best could do well here, but I’ll call this a likely Liberal hold. The Liberal Movement, the predecessor to the Democrats, held the predecessor seat of Goyder between 1973-76, although the Democrats never made the top two in the 1990s.
Newland - Giving this to Labor given Keynon’s incumbency, and success in marginal seat campaigns.
Playford - Easy Labor hold.
Port Adelaide - Likely Labor hold, although expect Gary Johanson to give Susan Close a good run for her money.
Ramsay - Easy Labor hold.
Reynell - Labor hold.
Schubert - Liberal hold, would be an easy hold if it wasn’t for SA Best.
Stuart - Liberal hold, especially with SA Best not running here.
Taylor - Every election has its upsets, and with a retiring MP, I think this could be a smokey SA Best gain.
Torrens - Possible Labor hold.
Unley - Liberal hold.
Waite - Likely Liberal hold, especially with the Xenophon tide receding and Hamilton-Smith retiring.
West Torrens - Labor hold.
Wright - Likely Labor hold, unless the Liberals do really well in the north-eastern suburbs.

[Lachi]

Election morning, and it's still not clear who could win.

My question now is will the computers be able to survive the night, or crash our because of how hugely complex this election could be.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Election morning, and it's still not clear who could win.

My question now is will the computers be able to survive the night, or crash our because of how hugely complex this election could be.

I feel so sorry for Antony Green

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Lee

Named for leading South Australian suffragette Mary Lee, the seat of Lee, known as Albert Park before 1993, has been drastically altered by the Electoral Commission, shedding all the solidly Labor territory north of Bower Road and replacing it with marginal territory to the south, considerably weakening Labor's hold on the seat from 4.5 to 1.5 percent, making far closer to the state average than it has ever been. This change makes Lee into a key marginal for this election.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Cheltenham

Named for the suburb the seat is centred on, the seat of Cheltenham, known as Price before 2002, after the first Labor premier of South Australia Thomas Price, is one of the safest Labor seats in the state. Currently held by the Premier, Jay Weatherhill, the seat has a long Labor tradition, with Labor never being remotely threatened in the seat, and with no prospect of that changing.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Croydon

Named for it's central suburb of Croydon the seat of Croydon, known as Spence before 2002, is currently the safest Labor seat in the state, and has never elected a non-Labor member. The redistribution has shifted the seat northeast, increasing the Labor margin with it. The incumbent member, Michael Atkinson is retiring, and current member of the Legislative Council Peter Malinauskas has been pre-selected to replace him, and will have no trouble doing it.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Enfield

Named for the suburb contained within the seat the electorate of Enfield was, between 1970 and 2002, named Ross Smith, making it unique among Australian electoral districts in that its name incorporated the first name of the individual it was named after, groundbreaking Australian aviator Ross Macpherson Smith, the first person to fly from Australia to England. The redistribution has removed areas west of the railway, and replaced them with territory to the east, weakening the Labor by two points from 8.1 to 6.2. The sitting member, Deputy Premier John Rau, however, shouldn't have much trouble holding on given his high profile.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Torrens

Despite its location on the banks of Adelaide's river, the Torrens (Australian towns are obsessed with their rivers, with popular old-fashioned children's word games being naming a town and the other naming that towns river. Yes, we are obsessed with water.) the Electoral Commission is clear that the seat of Torrens is named not for the extraordinarily variable River Torrens, neither for the river's namesake, Robert Torrens, Colonel, Economist, newspaper owner, writer, Irish person and all-round multi tasker, but for his son, also unhelpfully named Robert Torrens, South Australia's third premier, known for the Torrens title system of land registration (woo-hoo, how exciting), which was later adopted as the universal land registration system of the Commonwealth, and thus is also known today as the English system. Isn't Property Law exciting (no, it isn't). The seat was divided between Gilles (not Giles) and Todd between 1985 and 1993. Under the Playmander the seat was one of the few Liberal Country League seats in Adelaide, however the seat has shifted leftwards over time, with the Liberals last winning it at their 1993 landslide, only to lose it a year later at a by-election triggered by the death of the sitting member, giving Labor enough members to field a cricket team. The seat remains semi-marginal, however the time doesn't seem right for the Liberals.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Hartley

Named for John Hartley, who led the South Australian education system for two decades the seat contains the centre of the Adelaide Italian community, with 11.1% fluent in Italian and a quarter claiming Italian heritage, both the highest in the state. This Italian heritage is clear when you look at the names of it's recent members, Tarzia, Portolesi and Scalzi. However the seats most famous politician-in-residence harks not from Italy but from Cyprus, yes Nick Xenophon. He changed his name from Xenophou to correct a translation error stemming from his father's emigration to Australia, and is contesting the seat he lives in, rather than the seats he is strongest in in the Adelaide Hills on principle. Not that he hasn't performed well in this seat, indeed this seat was his 14th best in 2016. The seat is a key marginal, indeed Labor is running Portolesi, who was defeated in 2014 after serving two terms. The seat takes in suburbs with starkly different voting habits, and thus has been the Electoral Commission's number one target over the years in their never-ending quest for fair electoral boundaries. The seat is the seat to watch this election. Full stop.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Dunstan

The seat is, now rather ironically, given the seats rightward lean, named for Radical Left-Wing Premier Don Dunstan, who represented the seat of Norwood, which was renamed only last election in 2014 to Dunstan in his honor. The seat is, even more ironically currently represented by Leader of the Opposition Steve Marshall (A British equivalent would be Jeremy Corbyn representing the seat of Thatcher). Unusually for a party leader the seat is still marginal, with Steve Marshall elected by gaining the seat from the Labor incumbent, the seat remains marginal, however Steve Marshall won't lose this year, given his high-profile. However once he retires this seat could easily fall back to Labor.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Adelaide

Covering the City Centre the seat of Adelaide was, before 1985, a safe Labor seat. However in 1985 the Electoral Commission drastically altered the boundaries, changing a 15.6 Labor margin into a 2.8 Liberal margin, despite this Labor barely held on in '85, however lost it in '89. Since then the seat has remained one of the most marginal seats in the state, flipping back to Labor in '02 then in '14 flipping back to the Liberals on the back of a 14.7% swing, the second largest in South Australian history. Despite this the seat remains marginal, and could go either way.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

West Torrens

Named for the City of West Torrens, of which the electorate lies within, the seat of West Torrens, known between 1938 and 1956 Thebarton, and between 1970 and 2002 as Peake, is one of the safest Labor seats in the state. Indeed since the transition to single-member electorates in 1938 the seat of West Torrens has, bar for a Left-Wing Independent from '38 to '42, been represented for all but one term by Labor members. That one term was, of course, after the '93 landslide. Other than that the seat has stayed true to its deep red roots, and there is no indication of any change this time.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Colton

Named for Mary Colton, a prominent suffragette, the seat of Colton, known as Henley Beach before 1993, is South Australia's bellwether, supporting the governing party at every single election. The Electoral Commission, in a time-honoured tradition, has radically altered Colton in the pursuit of Fairness, overturning a 1.5 Labor margin into a 3.7 Liberal margin. This change has been facilitated by a dramatic shift southwards, losing Labor-leaning Grange and Seaton in return for Liberal-leaning West Beach and Glenelg North. This will considerably help the Liberals here, but do not write Labor off as winning the unwindable is what SA Labor does best.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Morphett

Named for John Morphett, one of the first Speakers of the Legislative Council, Morphett has long leaned right. This lean was substantially increased when in 1985 the redistribution abolished Glenelg, the Liberals only safe seat inside Adelaide, as opposed to the outskirts. This substantially increased the Liberals margin in Morphett, however the Electoral Commission has this year removed North Glenelg and replaced it with far more marginal suburbs to the east. This has substantially reduced the Liberals margin from 12.9 to 7.7. In addition the incumbent member was defeated for de-selection and is re-contesting as an Independent, which will cause many problems with preferences. Despite this I can't see Labor coming out on top in this four-horse race. If they couldn't win it in their 2006 landslide I can't see them winning it now.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Badcoe

The electorate of Ashford, known as Hanson before 2002, has been renamed Badcoe in honour of Peter Badcoe, who was posthumously awarded the Victoria Cross in honour of his service in Vietnam. The seat has gradually moved eastwards over the years, and as such the Labor margin has likewise increased each year, taking what was a safe Liberal seat at its creation in 1970 to what is now a semi-marginal Labor seat. The retirement of the sitting member should give the Liberals a boost however it probably won't be enough.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Unley

Named for the suburb it is centred on the seat of Unley has existed continuously since the establishment of single-member districts in 1938. Trivia: In 1973 over unhappiness at the quality of the Labor and LCL candidates Susie Creamcheese of the Happy Birthday Party ran, and got 6% of the vote. In 1997 the seat was redistributed dramatically in the Liberals favour, and has, since then, remained a safe Liberal seat, not even falling in 2006, and is under no particular threat this time.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Bragg

Named for Nobel Prize for Physics winning Father-Son duo William and Lawrence Bragg, who won the Nobel Prize for their dramatic advancement of knowledge of X-Rays. The seat, and it's predecessor Burnside, are some of the safest Liberal seats in the state, always electing a Liberal Country League or Liberal member. The Liberals have never failed to win a majority on First Preferences, making it one of a select few Australian electorates to never have to go to preferences. Xenophon has never performed well here, taking out the only chance of a non-Liberal member here.