Day 20: Maryland

[Beet]

Actually, only about a quarter of Maryland's votes comes from the D.C. suburbs (Montgomery and PG counties) and less than a tenth comes from Baltimore City. These places alone do not form a majority, as we saw in 2002. Thus, the basis for the Democratic majority in Maryland is actually somewhat more complicated than it first appears.

The state's counties can be broadly divided between metropolitan and rural; the rural counties because of their tiny size are largely insignificant individually but important only when taken as a whole.

The metropolitan counties can further be divided between ones falling in the D.C. metropoltian area or the Baltimore metropolitan area; and they are classified as either medium sized or large. Again, the medium sized counties are largely insignificant individually but important when aggregated and combined with others.

The large counties are each individually important to the balance of power in the state and are divided between strongly Democratic (Montgomery, Prince George's, Baltimore City), Strong Republican (Anne Arundel), and the decisive swing county (Baltimore County), which ordinarily delivers a small margin.

The main GOP coalition consists of Anne Arundel County, Harford and Carroll Counties, which are medium-size counties which are strong GOP, and the rural counties. All of these counties except the rural ones fall within the Baltimore metropolitan area.

Against these are balanced the Democrats' "Big Three", listed above.

These are generally the stable political coalitions in the state. The wild card is Baltimore County, which generally delivers a small margin. It is this small margin that explains the Democratic majorities in Maryland. The Democrats' stable coalition outvotes the Republicans' stable coalition; as long as Baltimore County delivers a small margin, the Democrats win "the battle of the stable majorities". However, if Baltimore County delivers a strong GOP majority, the state becomes majority GOP. Therefore, the state's main battleground is and will for the foreseeable future be the Baltimore metropolitan area.

Trends: As of now, the Baltimore metro is trending slightly Republican (partly due to exurban growth which is enlarging Harford and Carroll), but this trend is being cancelled out because the D.C. metro is trending slightly Democratic just enough so that the state percentages look stable. These trends do not mean anything so long as Baltimore County remains stable...

[Beet]

Another thing, the D.C. suburbs taken as a whole are unique from both northern and southern suburbs. The percentage of blacks is higher than in northern suburbs, while Catholics are a plurality among whites unlike southern suburbs. The entire area is highly affected by government agencies and their subsidiaries; professional work constitutes most of the higher level economy and there is virtually no manufacturing.