Fair redistricting: California

[Sol]

update I guess, I've been thinking about muon2's argument against IRV, and average deviation will instead be used in cases of ties. this means muon2's map is actually the winner for NM. not really a significant change since Sol's map is nearly identical

( )

sorry!!! your maps are awesome, you did win KY. for most states there's no truly single best map. most of the "winners" in this thing are just one best map, not the best map.

'Twas in jest

[cvparty]

update I guess, I've been thinking about muon2's argument against IRV, and average deviation will instead be used in cases of ties. this means muon2's map is actually the winner for NM. not really a significant change since Sol's map is nearly identical

( )

sorry!!! your maps are awesome, you did win KY. for most states there's no truly single best map. most of the "winners" in this thing are just one best map, not the best map.

'Twas in jest

yeah i know, just wanted to say

[jimrtex]

Colorado has 12 RCOG's. Weld, Larimer, and Pueblo are not in RCOG's, but we will treat Larimer+Weld as one, and Pueblo as one.




The four Western Slope regions have a population of 0.769. Add in the San Luis Valley and Upper Arkansas to reach 0.939. Add in Park and Teller to reach 0.994.

The three eastern regions and South Central have a population of 0.254, and should be kept together to provide at least some voice for ranching and farming interests on the Plains. Add in Larimer+Weld which have the strongest agricultural interests along the Front Range to get to 1.023. Subtract out Elbert, because most of the population is residential near Elizabeth, to reach 0.994.

El Paso and Pueblo equals 1.088.

Denver plus Elbert is 3.928 and will form four districts.

The Coloardo Springs and Denver areas have enough population for 5.016 districts, which will require moving around 60,000 persons from El Paso to the North. Keeping the number of El Paso residents shifting north was a consideration in configuring the other districts.




The larger Denver Metro counties are too small for districts of their own, and too large to be paired with each others. Denver will be kept whole based on a century-old practice, and to avoid chopping the coterminous city of Denver. In addition, the smaller more peripheral counties of Douglas and Boulder were kept whole. An attempt was made keep Adams, Arapahoe, and Jefferson in as large a chunk as possible was a consideration.



CO-1 (Western - Grand Junction, Montrose, Cañon City, Durango, Alamosa, Aspen) 0.994 + Jefferson 0.006. Jefferson was chosen based on continuous residential settlement from Park.

CO-2 (Northern, Eastern - Fort Collins, Greeley, Loveland, Fort Morgan, Lamar, Burlington, Walsenburg) 0.991 + Elbert 0.009 in the rural eastern part of the county.

CO-3 (South Central - Colorado Springs, Pueblo) 1.088 - 0.088 El Paso, north of Colorado Springs.

CO-4 (Denver - Denver, Westminster, Commerce City) 0.835 + 0.010 Arapahoe enclaves (Glendale, Holly Hills) + 0.155 Adams (Westminster, Commerce City). The major portion of Adams (Northglenn, Thornton, Brighton, Aurora) 0.460 will be in CO-6

CO-5 (West Metro - Lakewood, Arvada, Boulder, Longmont, Wheat Ridge) Jefferson 0.498, Boulder, Broomfield, Clear Creek, Gilpin. The southern part of Jefferson 0.246 will be in CO-7.

CO-6 (North, East Metro, Aurora, Thornton, Northglenn, Brighton) Adams 0.460, Arapahoe 0.540.

CO-7 (South - Centennial, Highlands Ranch CDP, Castle Rock, Parker, Littleton) Douglas, Arapahoe 0.246, Jefferson 0.246, El Paso 0.088, Elbert 0.023.


This is the division of El Paso, the area shifted north is close to the Palmer Divide, and includes Monument, Palmer Lake, Air Force Academy CDP, Gleneagle CDP, Woodmoor CDP, and Black Forest CDP. I've tried to follow the northern city limits of Colorado Springs.



El Paso:

CO-3 0.778
CO-7 0.088


This is the division of Jefferson. I have shifted Broomfield to be with Adams in CO-6. This permits almost all of Lakewood to be in CO-5 (there is a discontiguous portion of Lakewood that is in a precinct with disjoint parts that is excluded.

CO-5 includes Westminster, Arvada, Wheat Ridge, Lakewood, Golden and Evergreen CDP. CO-7 includes unincorporated areas in the southern part of the county. Three precincts along US 285 were added to CO-1. There is one precinct that is formed of enclaves of Denver that is placed in CO-4.

Jefferson:

CO-1: 0.007
CO-4: 0.000
CO-5: 0.570
CO-7: 0.167




This is the division of Adams and Arapahoe.

In Adams County, CO-4 includes Commerce City, and Berkley, North Washington, Twin Lakes, Sherrelwood, Welby, and Derby CDP's. CO-6 includes Federal Heights, Westminster, Northglenn, Thornton, Brighton, Aurora and the eastern part of the county. Going further north is problematic since Westminster and Thornton extend north to the Weld county line. The Commerce City areas north of the Rocky Mountain Arsenal provide a thickening of the Denver boundary to the airport.

Adams:

CO-4 0.155
CO-6 0.459

In Arapahoe County, CO-4 includes the Denver enclaves of Glendale and Holly Hills, as well as a couple of small enclaves near Lowry. CO-6 includes Aurora and the eastern ends of the county. CO-7 includes Centennial, Littleton, Englewood, Greenwood Village, Cherry Hills Village, and Sheridan.

Arapahoe:

CO-4 0.009
CO-6 0.462
CO-7 0.325




This is the division of Elbert. The rural part of the county, is stripped off to top off the population of CO-2. While it includes most of the county, including the towns of Elbert, Kiowa, and Simla, it only has about 1/4 of the county population. The area around Elizabeth remains in CO-7.

Elbert:

CO-2: 0.009
CO-7: 0.023




This is the final map.



Divided counties along the front range.



Divided counties in Denver Metro.




Statistics:

CO-1 (Western - Grand Junction, Montrose, Cañon City, Durango, Alamosa, Aspen) 33 whole counties 0.994, Jefferson(part) 0.006. +0.11% R+8.45, A 82, H 14, AI 1, O 1, B 1, As 1.

CO-2 (Northern, Eastern - Fort Collins, Greeley, Loveland, Fort Morgan, Lamar, Burlington, Walsenburg) 19 whole counties 0.991, Elbert(part) 0.009. -0.02%,R+7.06, A 78, H 17, As 1, B 1, O 1, AI 1.

CO-3 (South Central - Colorado Springs, Pueblo) El Paso(part) 0.778, Pueblo 0.221, -0.01%, R+8.03, A71, H19, B5, As 3, O 2, AI 1.

CO-4 (Cenral Metro Denver - Denver, Commerce City) Denver 0.835, Adams(part) 0.155, Arapahoe(part) 0.009, Jefferosn(part) 0.000. +0.01%, D+24.27, A 57, H 29, B 8, As 3, O 2, AI 1.

CO-5 (West Metro Denver - Lakewood, Arvada, Boulder, Longmont, Westmister(part)) Jefferson(part), Boulder 0.410, Clear Creek 0.13, Gilpin 0.008. +0.01%, D+11.84, A 82, H 12, As 3, O 1, B 1.

CO-6 (North, East Metro Denver - Aurora, Thornton, Westminster(part), Broomfield, Northglenn) Arapahoe(part) 0.462, Adams(part) 0.459, Broomfield 0.078. -.07%, D+5.84, A 61, H 23, B 8, As 5, O 2, AI 1.

CO-7 (South Metro Denver - Centennial, Castle Rock, Parker, Littleton, Highlands Ranch CDP) Douglas 0.397, Arapahoe(part) 0.325, Jefferson(part) 0.167, El Paso(Part) 0.088, Elbert(Part) 0.023. -0.03%, R+9.17, A 86, H 7, As 4, B 2, O 1.

[muon2]

Here's the current muon2 edition. AZ has only one UCC: Maricopa and Pinal with 5.9 CDs out of 9. This plan nests 5 CDs in the UCC but has an extra cover CD. It avoids any city chops except Phoenix. Phoenix has what it calls urban villages, and only one is chopped in this plan.

Like NM this uses the muon rule that reservations count as independent counties, meaning that a chop into a county that only includes the whole part of the reservation into that county does not count as chop.





CD 1: R+11
CD 2: D+7.7; HVAP 31.6%
CD 3: R+6.7; HVAP 29.6%
CD 4: R+8.3; HVAP 33.2%
CD 5: R+4.7
CD 6: R+14
CD 7: D+22; HVAP 56.8%
CD 8: R+9.1; HVAP 20.1%
CD 9: R+8.1

[Strudelcutie4427]

1. R+10 (-469)
2. R+9 (-399)
3. D+10 (-834) 45% W, 45% H
4. R+12 (602) 56% W, 34% H
5. R+10 (-790)
6. R+11 (-1044)
7. D+16 (1356) 29% W, 58% H
8. R+13 (1662)
9. D+9 (-84) 47% W, 36% H

[WMS]

WMS is a long time poster from Albuquerque (I met him there in 2008). After the 2011 Census numbers came out he suggested a similar idea for the Albuquerque metro. His suggestion took Albuquerque, Los Ranchos de Albuquerque, and North Valley in Bernallilo along with Rio Rancho, Corrales, and Bernalillo in Sandoval county into CD 1. The 2010 populations add up to 673,678 and with the other unincorporated pockets it's exactly the population needed for a CD.

The voting districts don't quite line up, but shows how his idea chops no munis. As drawn in DRA this version is +308 in population. CD 3 is 19.1% Native VAP. CD 2 (as drawn by Sol) has 47.8% HVAP, which is a plurality of the VAP.



Of course the muon2 rules would prefer chopping only one of Bernalillo, Sandoval or Valencia while nesting a CD in two of those three counties.

It is of course too late but obviously this plan was the best one

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Arizona Non-Partisan Plan.

My non-partisan redistricting plan for Arizona. The plan increases the number of Hispanic Majority VRA districts from two to three.

District 1 R+09.71 - 43.6 - 55.0
District 2 R+02.90 - 47.1 - 51.7
District 3 D+07.58 - 55.9 - 42.9 - 50.5 Hispanic
District 4 D+08.86 - 54.3 - 44.7 - 58.2 Hispanic
District 5 R+15.97 - 35.7 - 63.2
District 6 R+09.19 - 41.5 - 57.5
District 7 D+11.89 - 55.4 - 43.3 - 54.4 Hispanic
District 8 R+15.89 - 36.6 - 62.2
District 9 D+00.78 - 49.1 - 49.7

[Dr. MB]

AZ-01: R+6
AZ-02: R+1
AZ-03: D+2
AZ-04: R+17
AZ-05: D+8
AZ-06: R+14
AZ-07: D+10
AZ-08: R+15
AZ-09: R+1

[cvparty]

1: R+5
2: R+4
3: D+9
4: R+20
5: R+13
6: R+2
7: D+14
8: R+12
9: D+6

[Sol]

Why do y'all keep on splitting reservations?!?

[cvparty]

Why do y'all keep on splitting reservations?!?

wait where’d I split em

[muon2]

Why do y'all keep on splitting reservations?!?

Not me. I treated reservations like counties, much as I scored them in NM.

[Sol]

I was referring to MB, Singtx, and AustralianSwingVoter's maps.

[muon2]

Arizona Non-Partisan Plan.

My non-partisan redistricting plan for Arizona. The plan increases the number of Hispanic Majority VRA districts from two to three.

District 1 R+09.71 - 43.6 - 55.0
District 2 R+02.90 - 47.1 - 51.7
District 3 D+07.58 - 55.9 - 42.9 - 50.5 Hispanic
District 4 D+08.86 - 54.3 - 44.7 - 58.2 Hispanic
District 5 R+15.97 - 35.7 - 63.2
District 6 R+09.19 - 41.5 - 57.5
District 7 D+11.89 - 55.4 - 43.3 - 54.4 Hispanic
District 8 R+15.89 - 36.6 - 62.2
District 9 D+00.78 - 49.1 - 49.7

Are you quoting Hispanic or Hispanic Voting Age population? It's the HVAP that matters (actually the citizen VAP) when it comes to the VRA. Since there's a large non-citizen Hispanic population, a mere 50% won't be enough for the VRA. It's not clear that 54% would be enough either.

[muon2]

I don't have access to IE and DRA for a couple of weeks, but I ran this plan with updated numbers before I lost access. Whole counties were maintained as much as possible (2 county chops, 1 city chop) and connectivity used one local connection to accommodate areas with few roads and to avoid additional chops.




Data with 2012/16 PVI
CD 1: +367; R+26
CD 2: +722; R+3.1
CD 3: -2097; R+33
CD 4: +1006; R+22

[muon2]

1: R+26
2: R+32
3: R+26
4: D+5

Your inclusion of part of Box Elder and Rich county in CD 2 is equivalent to hopping the Chesapeake Bay in MD where the is no bridge or Ferry. The area north of the Great Salt Lake in Box Elder is separated on the west side by salt flats. Rich county is cut off to the south by mountains and you basically have to get to it from Logan or from another state. (It's the main reason that I've never been to Rich despite a number of trips on I80.)

[Dr. MB]

District 1: Red
District 2: Yellow
District 3: Green
District 4: Blue

1: R+26
2: D+5
3: R+25
4: R+31

[Sol]

District 1: Red
District 2: Yellow
District 3: Green
District 4: Blue

1: R+26
2: D+5
3: R+25
4: R+31

What are the deviations on that?

[cvparty]

I was just about to post one pretty much identical to MB's, he didn't put the populations tho and our districts are prob a little different so I'll put mine out there

1: R+26
2: R+31
3: R+26
4: D+5

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Utah Non-Partisan plan.

My non-partisan redistricting plan for Utah. Only two counties are split

District 1 R+13.03 - 40.3 - 57.0
District 2 R+30.31 - 26.3 - 70.4
District 3 R+32.16 - 22.0 - 74.8
District 4 R+03.54 - 48.2 - 49.0

[Strudelcutie4427]

1. R+34 (476)
2. R+27 (-167)
3. R+23 (-238)
4. D+5 (-71)

[muon2]

1. R+34 (476)
2. R+27 (-167)
3. R+23 (-238)
4. D+5 (-71)

I'd make the same comment here as before. Going around the west side of the Great Salt Lake over salt flats is no different than connecting over the lake itself. it's mostly impassible except perhaps in an ATV.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Plan 2 better designed for roads

1. R+26 (-583)
2. D+4 (452)
3. R+26 (776)
4. R+31 (-647)

[windjammer]

Wooow interesting, so a non partisan map would mean a dem seat?

[Strudelcutie4427]

Wooow interesting, so a non partisan map would mean a dem seat?

If we’re going for compactness yes, it’s judt easy to pack every dem in Utah into a Salt Lake City district