Summit County, OH

[bagelman]

2012:


2016:

Swing:



Akron, a dreary gray city, has been hit by the heroin plague and I have no trouble imagining white voters giving Trump a chance. Coventry is a poor WWC town south of Akron. Hudson, the largest so named city in the country, is a New England style bourgeois clocktower city that went from the most Republican city in the county to having the largest Democratic swing.

Peninsula is the home of the Cuyahoga Falls National Park. It always struck me as an old fashioned little country town, which is why I'm surprised that it voted easily to the left of Cuyahoga Falls in 2012. Maybe it's the Vermont to Hudson's Connecticut. Twinsburg also surprises me as I've been told it's conservative and religious, although it does have a black community. I know little about the west part of the county and Northfield is vaguely poor.

Barberton's swing is quite brutal and shows Trump winning over WWC voters. It voted further right than Stow (a normal suburb), which is quite something.

[bagelman]

2020. For some reason I was given inaccurate information leading me to think Barberton had miraculously flipped back to Biden. Nope. Only flips are Macedonia, Stow, and Hudson, the latter being Romney's best performance county wide 8 years ago. Silver Lake very close, 922-916 for Trump.

In addition to the irony of being the most R town in the county in 2012, Hudson (D+4.4) voted to the left of Munroe Falls (D+4.2), Stow (D+4), and Macedonia (D+3.05). Barberton meanwhile seems to have swung rightward, from Trump <50% to Trump +6.6.

All this just confirms that there's no turning back from the Trends. There are more places like Barberton in Ohio than Stow or Hudson, and to think that with Trump gone it'll all just revert back to the way things were is wishful thinking.

https://i.ibb.co/r23BJvL/summit-county-20.png

Swing map to confirm my suspicions. Also partial trend map: areas swinging D but trending R are in grey.

https://i.ibb.co/sVLRMWq/summit-county-swing-1620.png