Where would Russia be today if Zyuganov had won in '96?

[Karpatsky]

Title. A lot of people in the West were worried about the return of communist rule, but the CPRF was never really the same organization as the CPSU. Could an early defeat for the anticommunist coalition have laid the groundwork for a real democracy in Russia?

[UnselfconsciousTeff]

I think it would me more like the PRC today (But without the tolitarianism and the one party system)

[smoltchanov]

Title. A lot of people in the West were worried about the return of communist rule, but the CPRF was never really the same organization as the CPSU. Could an early defeat for the anticommunist coalition have laid the groundwork for a real democracy in Russia?

No. A system like in China was far more likely... At THAT moment an anticommunist rule was the only feasible alternative..

[Lechasseur]

Title. A lot of people in the West were worried about the return of communist rule, but the CPRF was never really the same organization as the CPSU. Could an early defeat for the anticommunist coalition have laid the groundwork for a real democracy in Russia?

No. A system like in China was far more likely... At THAT moment an anticommunist rule was the only feasible alternative..

This

[Kingpoleon]

Title. A lot of people in the West were worried about the return of communist rule, but the CPRF was never really the same organization as the CPSU. Could an early defeat for the anticommunist coalition have laid the groundwork for a real democracy in Russia?

No. A system like in China was far more likely... At THAT moment an anticommunist rule was the only feasible alternative..

I don’t know... Can you see Alexander Lebed, Vladimir Semyonov, Yury Luzhkov, and Anatoly Kulikov letting the Communists take back over?

[smoltchanov]

Title. A lot of people in the West were worried about the return of communist rule, but the CPRF was never really the same organization as the CPSU. Could an early defeat for the anticommunist coalition have laid the groundwork for a real democracy in Russia?

No. A system like in China was far more likely... At THAT moment an anticommunist rule was the only feasible alternative..

I don’t know... Can you see Alexander Lebed, Vladimir Semyonov, Yury Luzhkov, and Anatoly Kulikov letting the Communists take back over?

All are former Communists, so, theoretically - yes. But - not with Zyuganov as leader.

[Kingpoleon]

Sure, “former communists”. But when the reformists toppled the Soviets, these made it quite clear that they were no longer supportive of communism. The Federal Security Service, the Security Council, the Russian Ground Forces, and the 80,000-man Moscow Police could easily arrest Zyuganov and present evidence of “mass fraud”.

[Beet]

The communists would have been destroyed in the 1998 crisis anyways. Not that much would have been different.

[brucejoel99]

If Zyuganov sticks with China-style communism rather than a full-blown return to the centrally planned economy, then he'd step onto the toes of the oligarchs &, as a result, would have to crush them. In doing so, however, he'd be able to prevent the near-total collapse of the Russian economy. He won't magically be able to bring about economic growth in the late '90s, but instead of collapse, Russia would just get stagnation, which is still better than a collapse. Assuming he's decently competent, Russia would become an economy that isn't just reliant on oil & gas exports.

The next questions/issues are:
1. Will Zyuganov return Russia to a one-party state, or will he allow other political parties to exist (even if only for show, a-la Putin).
2. The most glaring internal issue is Chechnya. The Chechens will be lucky if the restored Communists are as 'nice' as Putin. The embarrassment caused by the First Chechen War would require a redress to restore Russia's reputation ASAP.
3. How would he respond to the major foreign policy challenges of the mid-to-late '90s & early 2000s, such as, for example, the former country of Yugoslavia & 9/11 (assuming bin Laden continues on schedule)?
4. Would he seek a USSR 2.0? If so, how would he go about it?

In any event, Russia has every potential to become as confrontational as it is today, if not more, but at least a decade earlier than it did in real life. That would have a serious impact as to how the Cold War is viewed today. In Russia, the period between the end of Communism in 1991 & its restoration in 1996 could very well be seen as a brief interregnum, with the Communists painting all the the non-Communist parties & figures as fascists, bourgeois capitalists, & nationalist separatists. That story would do particularly well if the Communists put an end to the chaos of the early '90s. In the West, the '89-'96 period would likely be seen as the Cold War's halftime. The final great irony could be that Putin, as head of the KGB, still winds up in charge of Russia somehow.



Of course, it's also just as (if not more) likely that Zyuganov would be unable to solve the crisis &/or take control of the media quickly enough so as to keep his popularity from falling. He might even be impeached, & even if he were to survive, a "right-wing" candidate would surely win in 2000.