KY-GOV 2019: Is Matt Bevin in big trouble?

[MT Treasurer]

Mason-Dixon had him at 45/41 (+4) approval in December, which is not that strong for an incumbent Republican governor (his numbers were a lot better than McConnell’s, though). In an off-off-year with a very motivated Democratic base, he is likely to be in big trouble. His campaign in 2015 was pretty awful as well.

I’d rate it Tilt R for now, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Democrats swept KY, LA and MS in 2019 simply because it’s an off-off-year.

[BuckeyeNut]

Implementing Medicaid work requirements seems like an awful idea, but it all depends on how well people can be mobilized. He'd be the first two-term Republican Governor to serve Kentucky ever(!?) if he wins, so it should definitely be competitive.

[Former Kentuckian]

Mason-Dixon had him at 45/41 (+4) approval in December, which is not that strong for an incumbent Republican governor (his numbers were a lot better than McConnell’s, though). In an off-off-year with a very motivated Democratic base, he is likely to be in big trouble. His campaign in 2015 was pretty awful as well.

I’d rate it Tilt R for now, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Democrats swept KY, LA and MS in 2019 simply because it’s an off-off-year.

That Mason-Dixon rating is in line with his February Morning Consult approval rating: 41/41/17.

I wouldn't say Bevin is in BIG trouble, but he's not in good shape. The dislike of him here is almost palpable. He's made a lot of big mistakes: messing with board of trustees, messing with teacher pensions, budget cuts all over the place freaking with peoples' lives, threatening healthcare, etc. He's seen as immature and irrational. If the KDP can recruit someone the exact opposite of Conway, they stand a chance of winning. Bevin's win in '15 is still kind of seen as a fluke because James Comer was supposed to be the Republican nominee until Hal Heiner came in with his deep pockets, blind ambition, and freaked everything over, giving Bevin a surprise win. And Bevin was disastrous in the general election (screaming at people on camera, refusing to answer simple questions, etc) but Conway (the Dem) was such a bland, stuck-up richboy that Bevin's irrationality won over the WWC who would vote for Trump exactly a year later. Conway also hated doing retail politics while Bevin thrives on that (much like Trump). Conway's Lt. Gov. pick, Sannie Overly, had to do a lot of the retail politicking for him (and, honestly, would have made a much better Gov. nominee).

[Skye]

Based on how he performed back when everyone thought he was going to lose (or at least that Conway would keep it close), I wouldn't say he's in big trouble, but he probably isn't cruising to reelection.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I'm calling it Lean R for now. KY's redness has really started to bleed down the ballot to the state level, but the question is if that will continue with a governor who isn't exactly popular, and a potentially depressed GOP base.

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

TnVol's recent shtick of being as pessimistic as possible about Republicans is quite funny to read. But anyways, this race is Likely R because Kentucky is well... Kentucky. There's a very small slate of Democrats who may still be able to win statewide, but Dems are toast if they have to settle for anything outside of their best two or three prospects.

[KingSweden]

I’d say he’s favored, but lightly vulnerable

[LimoLiberal]

Queen Linda Belcher will take him on and win.

[Pandaguineapig]

Too controversial to be out of the woods but moderate democrats are a dying breed and the two best recruits (ALG and Beshear) probably would rather seek Yarmuths seat( seen as a likely bet to retire in 2020) than face an uphill race in a state where the democratic brand is becoming more toxic every day

[Hollywood756]

The democratic brand isn't fading, I don't think. but Kentucky- at least the rural parts- is exactly the kind of state to get swept into trumpism. Also, McConnell wasn't up in 2016, so all that money- about 7m from at least the specific PAC I looked into- went to flipping the house republican. It wasn't as easy or as foregone a conclusion as it seemed.

That said, the governors mansion is probably lean R right now, because the snake oil Bevin peddles is exactly what the majority- by land mass- of kentuckians are buying.   

Beshear and ALG are probably going to run, and both have served the commonwealth well, but it's just really tough out here for a democrat.

[Former Kentuckian]

Too controversial to be out of the woods but moderate democrats are a dying breed and the two best recruits (ALG and Beshear) probably would rather seek Yarmuths seat( seen as a likely bet to retire in 2020) than face an uphill race in a state where the democratic brand is becoming more toxic every day

Alison lives in Lexington. Beshear might live in Louisville now, I'm not sure. He was born there, but he was raised in Central Kentucky (the 6th district). If Yarmuth retires, I can see an all-out brawl to be his successor. There are a lot of state legislators in the area and city/county officials who will try to succeed him.

[Hollywood756]

Too controversial to be out of the woods but moderate democrats are a dying breed and the two best recruits (ALG and Beshear) probably would rather seek Yarmuths seat( seen as a likely bet to retire in 2020) than face an uphill race in a state where the democratic brand is becoming more toxic every day

Alison lives in Lexington. Beshear might live in Louisville now, I'm not sure. He was born there, but he was raised in Central Kentucky (the 6th district). If Yarmuth retires, I can see an all-out brawl to be his successor. There are a lot of state legislators in the area and city/county officials who will try to succeed him.

Off the top of my head, likely contenders are Bevin, Fischer, maybe Tandy?, and any number of metro council members, plus Gil Holland.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

At this point, I just can't imagine him winning a second term. In addition to the daily scandals and gaffes, he has the unpopular pension "reform" and the gutting of Medicaid.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I wonder if he'll have a primary.

Mitch McConnell won't cry if he loses.  Rand Paul . . . well . . .

[Skill and Chance]

Mason-Dixon had him at 45/41 (+4) approval in December, which is not that strong for an incumbent Republican governor (his numbers were a lot better than McConnell’s, though). In an off-off-year with a very motivated Democratic base, he is likely to be in big trouble. His campaign in 2015 was pretty awful as well.

I’d rate it Tilt R for now, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Democrats swept KY, LA and MS in 2019 simply because it’s an off-off-year.

That's the key.  JBE should be reelected in a cakewalk, but the only reason the other 2 could even be close is because this is basically a special election level turnout pattern, which should be very pro-Dem.

For the same reason, I expect an absolute wipeout of the GOP majorities in the VA legislature in 2019, especially now with the Dems knowing they can win it.

[Skill and Chance]

Mason-Dixon had him at 45/41 (+4) approval in December, which is not that strong for an incumbent Republican governor (his numbers were a lot better than McConnell’s, though). In an off-off-year with a very motivated Democratic base, he is likely to be in big trouble. His campaign in 2015 was pretty awful as well.

I’d rate it Tilt R for now, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Democrats swept KY, LA and MS in 2019 simply because it’s an off-off-year.

That's the key.  JBE should be reelected in a cakewalk, but the only reason the other 2 could even be close is because this is basically a special election level turnout pattern, which should be very pro-Dem.

For the same reason, I expect an absolute wipeout of the GOP majorities in the VA legislature in 2019, especially now with the Dems knowing they can win it.

Yep and then we’ll have a beautiful 8D-3R congressional map of Virginia

I don't think that will fly anymore after SCOTUS rules on the redistricting cases this summer.  I'm sure 6D/5R would, though.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Mason-Dixon had him at 45/41 (+4) approval in December, which is not that strong for an incumbent Republican governor (his numbers were a lot better than McConnell’s, though). In an off-off-year with a very motivated Democratic base, he is likely to be in big trouble. His campaign in 2015 was pretty awful as well.

I’d rate it Tilt R for now, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Democrats swept KY, LA and MS in 2019 simply because it’s an off-off-year.

That's the key.  JBE should be reelected in a cakewalk, but the only reason the other 2 could even be close is because this is basically a special election level turnout pattern, which should be very pro-Dem.

For the same reason, I expect an absolute wipeout of the GOP majorities in the VA legislature in 2019, especially now with the Dems knowing they can win it.

Yep and then we’ll have a beautiful 8D-3R congressional map of Virginia

I don't think that will fly anymore after SCOTUS rules on the redistricting cases this summer.  I'm sure 6D/5R would, though.

No, if there is indeed restrictions on redistricting after SCOTUS, a clean 7D-4R map is very much possible. Well, more like 6D-4R-1 swing (that's about D+1 PVI and trending blue).

Depends - you can nest almost exactly 2 CDs in Fairfax. And that would be Dem packing.

[Xing]

I think it's a matter of who runs against him in 2019

[IceSpear]

No.

[Former Kentuckian]

Another day, another dumb Bevin decision. Kentucky could become the only state in the country to not have a poison control center/hotline because of Bevin's budget cuts: http://www.wdrb.com/story/37576546/budget-cuts-mean-kentucky-could-become-only-state-without-a-poison-control-center

I become convinced more and more everyday that Alison Lundergan Grimes is interested in running for Governor. She's been intensely involved in the special elections. She campaigned up in Bullitt County for Linda Belcher and spoke at a rally for Kelly Smith in Madison County tonight.

[libertpaulian]

I think it's a matter of who runs against him in 2019

Bingo.  If Allison Grimes or Andy Beshear run, the Dems stand a chance.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Another day, another dumb Bevin decision. Kentucky could become the only state in the country to not have a poison control center/hotline because of Bevin's budget cuts: http://www.wdrb.com/story/37576546/budget-cuts-mean-kentucky-could-become-only-state-without-a-poison-control-center

I become convinced more and more everyday that Alison Lundergan Grimes is interested in running for Governor. She's been intensely involved in the special elections. She campaigned up in Bullitt County for Linda Belcher and spoke at a rally for Kelly Smith in Madison County tonight.

She's probably the most electable Dem here, although I'm not so sure myself whether she'll run or not.

[UWS]

I think Bevin is favored to win since he can campaign on coal, the number one energy industry in Kentucky.

[un]

It honestly depends as to who runs against him in 2019. If it's a center-right Blue Dog Democrat, then no. If they really wanted to vote for a Republican, they would vote for Bevin. Why vote for the one with   a D next to it's name? If it's a left wing progressive like Paula Jean (D-WV) is, well then it may be competitive. That Democrat, however, is still in a state Trump won by 25 points or so. So that Democrat has to hammer the message that they don't take PAC or billionaire money, support Medicare for all, open opposition to NAFTA and TPP, and other left wing ideas. Because polls show that a state like Kentucky or West Virginia, which both went to Trump overwhelming, they support left wing ideas, even the Tea Party ones. So yeah, you could flip that seat, but the Democrats have to be smart and run an actual anti establishment liberal.

[RINO Tom]

It honestly depends as to who runs against him in 2019. If it's a center-right Blue Dog Democrat, then no. If they really wanted to vote for a Republican, they would vote for Bevin. Why vote for the one with   a D next to it's name? If it's a left wing progressive like Paula Jean (D-WV) is, well then it may be competitive. That Democrat, however, is still in a state Trump won by 25 points or so. So that Democrat has to hammer the message that they don't take PAC or billionaire money, support Medicare for all, open opposition to NAFTA and TPP, and other left wing ideas. Because polls show that a state like Kentucky or West Virginia, which both went to Trump overwhelming, they support left wing ideas, even the Tea Party ones. So yeah, you could flip that seat, but the Democrats have to be smart and run an actual anti establishment liberal.

1) A Blue Dog Democrat is not a Republican with a D next to his/her name.  Otherwise, that person would be a Republican.

2) A Blue Dog Democrat is just as likely to be a socially moderate/conservative "populist" with some left-of-center economic policies (which has historically played well in Kentucky) as he/she is to be a socially liberal, economically moderate/conservative technocrat (which would play horribly).