Yes, I expected about a 51/47 PV breakdown and a 338-200 EV breakdown (with McCain winning IN, NE-2, NC). The "Bradley effect" turned out to be less than I expected, and certainly less than for Tom Bradley (after whom the effect is named) in '82 or Doug Wilder in '89.
The Wilder effect in 1989 was WAY overblown. The only poll that had that race a blowout for Wilder was the Washington Post poll which almost always has a Dem bias. Almost all other polls had the race very close, with Wilder below 50% and only up a couple of points. I believe Marshall Coleman (Wilder's GOP opponent) actually led some polls earlier in October.
