Fair redistricting: New York

[cvparty]

Hello, Atlas, and welcome to our fair redistricting project! We will be creating fair and representative congressional districts through a bipartisan panel of me (I), Singletxguyforfun (R), Sol (R), OPEN (D), and TimTurner (D). It is essential that you read the rules at the bottom of this post.

Status

Submissions are OPEN until 6/20, 8:00 AM EST! Feel free to submit up to TWO maps maximum, add a narrative/explanation to your map, and give feedback on other people's maps!

State order and directory
ME - NH - RI - CT - MA - NJ - MD - VA - WV - PA - NY
*You have the entire order here, so try to stay ahead and have maps in advance.






Map selection
1) Submissions are open usually 3 days for each state (may be extended for populous states, and shortened for small ones); anyone can post a map proposal

• Two proposals allowed per person—DO NOT POST MORE THAN TWO MAPS. If you do, only the first two you post will be eligible.

2) After submissions close, each panelist chooses 2 maps - at least one of the choices must be a map that is not their own. (They are free to not submit a map at all and to select 2 others' plans.)

• Open discussion of plans is encouraged, but panelists must cast their actual votes by PMing me their choices

3) First round: The committee votes whether to approve each of the maps

• 3/5 votes needed for a pass; there must be at least one D and one R vote
• If not one map can pass here somehow, a simple 3/5 will be sufficient

4) Second round: The remaining maps are ranked by Condorcet method and the most popular map wins

• Stages 2 and 3 may be skipped if the number of submissions is low enough

Criteria for maps
★ REQUIRED ★
1) All maps are to be made with DRA
2) PVI data must be provided, and you must have your drf file ready to verify
3) Districts must be contiguous (water contiguity is allowed, but the areas should be connected by something like a bridge or ferry)
4) Populations must be provided; maximum allowed deviation is 0.5%
★ FACTORS IN EVALUATION ★
1) Each district's constituents are generally similar geographically, demographically, and politically (i.e. rural vs. urban, race, metro areas, voting)
2) The districts are generally representative of the state's partisan composition in a neutral election cycle, where reasonably possible (proportions need not be exact; states like Massachusetts and Oklahoma are understandable—just don't pull an NCGOP)
3) Districts are reasonably compact

• It is understood that compactness is not the best measure of fairness or gerrymandering; just no strange and unfair slivers and branches

4) County and especially town splits are kept small and reasonable

• Special cases are small states with large populations [e.g. there is much leeway for NJ, which has 9,000,000 people in only 21 counties vs. MS, which has 3,000,000 in 82)
• and large counties/towns [e.g. in Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh and Delaware County])

[cvparty]

★RESULTS SPREADSHEET★

~maps to come~

[cvparty]

Existing Maine maps
TimTurner's map

ME-01: D+6.94, -195
ME-02: R+0.94, +196

Singletxguyforfun's map

Torie's map

LimoLiberal's map

Kevinstat's map
Kevinstat's other map

jimrtex's map

[muon2]

This is my initial submission (copied from the other thread).

I checked the town maps and there is only one county chop, no town chops and does not chop a UCC.

Stats for the districts:
CD 1 (blue): deviation +75; PVI D+6.66
CD 2 (gree): deviation -74; PVI R+0.51

The compact districts have an erosity = 3 by the muon rules using counties as the primary unit and towns as the subunit.

[Starpaul20]

Here's mine:

One county split (Oxford); splits at about Route 2.

Stats:
CD 1 (blue): Pop. 663,786 (deviation -394) PVI D+6.83
CD 2 (green): Pop. 664,575 (deviation +395) PVI R+0.75

[Strudelcutie4427]

Just bumping this up. Anyone who wants to submit their version of Maine has until 8 am tomorrow morning to do so. If you would like to vote on previous submissions, please PM cvparty. You can vote for your 2 favorites

[cvparty]

Just bumping this up. Anyone who wants to submit their version of Maine has until 8 am tomorrow morning to do so. If you would like to vote on previous submissions, please PM cvparty. You can vote for your 2 favorites

clarification—panelists will PM me their choices for their two favorite maps after map submissions close tomorrow (08:00 EST)

[Strudelcutie4427]

The submission deadline has passed. However, now is the time to vote on your favorite 2 maps

[muon2]

I'll provide some analysis of the submissions to help the panel. Did anyone convert solid4096's submission into DRA?

Analysis terms (low scores are better):

SKEW measures the lean of the delegation compared to the statewide expectation based on PVI. CDs with a PVI of 0 or 1 (tossup) don't count. For ME the expected lean is 0.25 seats for the Dems. A plan with 1 D and 1 tossup (most of the plans) with score a SKEW of 1.

POLARIZATION measure how well the CDs will respond to changes in the electorate. Competitive seats with PVI of 2 to 5 count 1 and uncompetitive seats of 6 or more count 2.

INEQUALITY is a relative measure of the population range.

CHOP sums the number of chops of counties, towns, and urban clusters. Chops that create multiple fragments larger than 5% of a CD add to erosity.

EROSITY measures the irregularity of district borders in terms of the number of broken connections between counties and towns within counties.

Map scores:
TimTurner - S 1; P 2; I 3; C 1; E 7
Singletxguyforfun - S 1; P 2; I 5; C 1; E 14
Torie - S 1; P 2; I 7; C 1; E 7
LimoLiberal - S 1; P 1; I 7; C 3; E 26
Kevinstat 1 - S 1; P 2; I 2; C 4; E 4
Kevivstat 2 - S 1; P 2; I 2; C 1; E 4
jimrtex - S 1; P 2; I 3; C 1; E 7
muon2 - S 1; P 2; I 3; C 1; E 3
starpaul20 - S 1; P 2; I 4; C 1; E 4
solid4096 - S 1; P 2; I 3; C 1; E 7

[Strudelcutie4427]

I'll provide some analysis of the submissions to help the panel. Did anyone convert solid4096's submission into DRA?

THIS IS SOLID4096'S MAP. Its D+7/R+1 and the deviation is 195

[cvparty]

THIS IS SOLID4096'S MAP. Its D+7/R+1 and the deviation is 195

hmm it's the exact same as TimTurner's map so let's just lump them together
also there's only like 2 ways to draw Maine so this state won't be very exciting

[Strudelcutie4427]

THIS IS SOLID4096'S MAP. Its D+7/R+1 and the deviation is 195

hmm it's the exact same as TimTurner's map so let's just lump them together
also there's only like 2 ways to draw Maine so this state won't be very exciting

Yeah looking at all the submissions most of them look the exact same more or less. So if there isn’t approval of one for some reason, we know what the compromise map should look like. But that’s what happens when you have half the population of a large state crammed into a small wedge

[muon2]

I finished scoring the plans, and there are some easy reductions to make for the panel. Basically there are these 6 plans.

TimTurner, jimrtex, and Solid4096 have identical plans that chop Kennebec and have scores of 1, 2, 3, 1, 7 on the SPICE metrics.



Singletxguyforfun also only chops Kennebec but leaves off Lincoln into CD 2. This results in a deep macrochop of Kennebec and significantly increases erosity. The SPICE scores are 1, 2, 5, 1, 14



Kevinstat 2 and Starpaul20 both chop Oxford and put Lincoln in CD 2. Kevinstat 2 splits a voting district to move the town of Gilead into CD 1, but is otherwise the same. That shift creates SPICES scores of 1, 2, 2, 1, 4



Torie puts Lincoln in CD 1 and uses less of Oxford to balance population. This stretches out the district and increases the erosity. The SPICE scores are 1, 2, 7, 1, 7.



muon2 puts Lincoln and Sagdahoc in CD 2 and the chop goes in Franklin. Though the boundary is stretched to the north it goes through unpopulated areas that reduces erosity. The SPICE scores are 1, 2, 3, 1, 3.



LimoLiberal chops the Portland UCC and makes a high-erosity border to make CD 1 more competitive which shows up in the reduced polarization. The SPICE scores are 1, 1, 7, 3, 26.

[Nyvin]

LimoLiberal's map looks ridiculous honestly.   Any Maine map should by default be York+Cumberland+"Other" for ME-1, and then ME-2 just gets whatever is left.

I don't even think there's a main road going through ME-2 from York to Banger...

[muon2]

LimoLiberal's map looks ridiculous honestly.   Any Maine map should by default be York+Cumberland+"Other" for ME-1, and then ME-2 just gets whatever is left.

I don't even think there's a main road going through ME-2 from York to Banger...

I checked, and there is a pathway of state and federal highways that can get you from York to Bangor entirely within LimoLiberal's CD 2. That only means they're connected, not that the path is direct.

[Strudelcutie4427]

LimoLiberal's map looks ridiculous honestly.   Any Maine map should by default be York+Cumberland+"Other" for ME-1, and then ME-2 just gets whatever is left.

I don't even think there's a main road going through ME-2 from York to Banger...

Luckily nobody drew it but I’ve seen some that connect Knox to Hancock. They only look connected on DRA because of some islands that I’m not sure people live on. The only road between the two goes through sears port in Waldo county. Maine’s fjords make it a bit tricky to do coastal contiguity

[jimrtex]

I misread the deadline as 8 pm.

Maine 1 (whole counties)

ME-1 +1.19%
ME-2 -1.19%
Standard Deviation 1.19%

ME-1 1.00R
ME-2 6.94D

Narrative:

Uses whole counties, and keeps Portland UCC (Cumberland+York) whole. Adds in Androscoggin (Lewiston-Auburn), plus Sagahadoc and Lincoln for population. Most of northern district is connected by I-95, from Augusta through Bangor and places north.

The SCOTUS has never defined what "equal as practicable" means, but has required justification from the state. In 'Kirkpatrick v. Preisler' and 'Karcher v Daggett', there were other factors. For example in 'Kirpatrick v. Preisler' it was pointed out that St.Louis City and County had a population equivalent to 3 districts, but had been divided in four, in other places, simple swaps might have improved the equality (the analysis is confusing, because it appears that improving one district might have made another worse). The state also used the wrong data, and made claims they were accounting for future population changes, but had not made any systematic analysis. They did not claim that at a tiger ate their map.

In 'Karcher v Daggett' the Democrats had hurriedly put together a second map. As in Missouri, swapping towns could improve equality. The state claimed the equality was within the MOE for the census population. But that simply does not matter. if the two estimates are within say 2%, and the MOE for each is 3%, then that causes the possibility of even greater inequality. It is better to assume the census data is 100% correct. Justice Stephens in his concurrence suggests that the map was a partisan gerrymander. He was the decisive vote in a 5:4 decision.

It appears that map-drawers interpreted 'Karcher v Doggett' as meaning, "there is no way that you can satisfy the SCOTUS". The district judge cited Bob Dylan as forming the basis for her reasoning.
The SCOTUS categorically rejected that viewpoiint in "Tennant v Jefferson County", where they did not even bother with oral arguments.

There is no evidence that the map drawer deviated from the lodestar of practicable equality. After placing Cumberland and York in one district, other combinations of counties were tried, and no other combination approached the level of equality, unless there are bizarre combinations that would bypass both Androscoggin and Kennebec. The 1.19% deviation is less than half the population of the least populous county of Piscataquis. There is no evidence that political factors influenced the boundary, It was only in transcribing the map into DRA that I even knew what the result would be.

The commission should approve this map. There is always the pandermander solution of moving Monmouth and Litchfield if necessary to dupe the SCOTUS.

[cvparty]

aw jimrtex ma dude I’m sorry it was 08:00 military time...all the Maine maps are basically the same anyway...

LIMO AND TED GODDAMN WHERE ARE THEE
they may have to be replaced if they‘re not responsive. let me know if you would consider being a D or R panelist

[Mike Thick]

Sorry. I’ll be able to keep up now that I’m on a semi-normal schedule again/know which thread to follow. My two favorite maps are Torie’s and Muon’s.

[cvparty]

The panelists have made their choices...! Now's our first round of voting; six maps made it.

Panelists, copy the list as follows and vote YES or NO to moving the maps to the final round. Do add comments for explanation if possible. Consider compactness, representativeness, constituent similarity, and to a lesser extent, splits (really just towns for this state; please do not be fanatical about counties). A "no" vote is not necessarily saying the map in question is bad, just that in context of the goal and the other maps you wouldn't recommend it for the final round. Hyperlinks are provided for reference. I vote:

Starpaul20 - Y
Torie - Y
Singletxguyforfun - Y
TimTurner et al. - Y
muon - N
LimoLiberal - N

LimoLiberal's is just kinda funky in its shape. muon's is fine, but imo Sagadahoc is better suited for ME-01 than Franklin and Oxford (particularly their northern, sparsely populated areas)

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

For like 80% or so states, I will attempt to submit a fair map, but some for a few states, I am going to submit gerrymanders.

[cvparty]

For like 80% or so states, I will attempt to submit a fair map, but some for a few states, I am going to submit gerrymanders.

umm please don’t...it’s kinda discourteous considering the explicitly stated purpose of this thread. sort of like king lear trolling in a predictions thread...why not make a new topic

[muon2]

The panelists have made their choices...! Now's our first round of voting; six maps made it.

Panelists, copy the list as follows and vote YES or NO to moving the maps to the final round. Do add comments for explanation if possible. Consider compactness, representativeness, constituent similarity, and to a lesser extent, splits (really just towns for this state; please do not be fanatical about counties). A "no" vote is not necessarily saying the map in question is bad, just that in context of the goal and the other maps you wouldn't recommend it for the final round. Hyperlinks are provided for reference. I vote:

Starpaul20 - Y
Torie - Y
Singletxguyforfun - Y
TimTurner et al. - Y
muon - N
LimoLiberal: N

LimoLiberal's is just kinda funky in its shape. muon's is fine, but imo Sagadahoc is better suited for ME-01 than Franklin and Oxford (particularly their northern, sparsely populated areas)

\

As someone who spent some time there (including getting an engagement stone), the bulk of the population of Oxford county is much more connected to SW ME (and NH) than it is to Bangor and the lumber country of northern ME. OTOH, Bath comes across more like the coastal communities to its east than it does the coastal towns SW of Portland.

[LimoLiberal]

Starpaul20 - Y
Torie - N
Singletxguyforfun - N
TimTurner et al. - Y
muon - Y
LimoLiberal: Y

Honestly, they're all very good. But I don't like the big splits of Oxford and Kennebec counties in Torie and singletxguyforfun's maps.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Starpaul20 - Y
Torie - Y
Singletxguyforfun - Y
TimTurner et al. - Y
muon - Y
LimoLiberal - N

All the yes ones all look more or less the same and Uon is right about southern oxford and southern franklin