Texas

[jimrtex]

Texas has counties that have voted for the Republican candidate 90% of the time and other counties that have voted Democratic 90% of the time.

[memphis]

There are several things producing the results in your map. First and most significant is the monolith of the Southern white vote. Once Democratic, but now Republicans nearly all Southern whites vote the same way. Next is the large Hispanic population, especially in South Texas which gives the Dems a boost. Finally, is the tradional high plains, libertarian Republican in West Texas. Same kind of people that live in Kansas and the Dakotas. They're an entirely different breed than the religious right Southern Republican, but they are just as partisan and have been in the party far longer.

[MissCatholic]

While the hispanic voting block continues to grow it can only help the democrats. The only way the dems can win is if a strong independent runs and takes away votes form a republican. The dems should just focus on certain counties. They barely lost in Dallas(can't remember what the county is) so if the dems just focus on winning cities then they can start a more reliable base.Elected dems have a big role to play in Texas as you can never give up on a state that carries so many electoral votes.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Finally, is the tradional high plains, libertarian Republican in West Texas. Same kind of people that live in Kansas and the Dakotas. They're an entirely different breed than the religious right Southern Republican, but they are just as partisan and have been in the party far longer.

It would be incorrect to view the high plains as non-religious-right when contrasted with the deep south.  Both are deeply religious veins of political tradition that have converged in the aftermath of the Civil Rights movement.

The high plains Republicans are the political descendents of the radical abolitionists of the Civil War era.  They have always been pro-equality and pro-justice, but from a Christian perspective.  They helped lead the charge both in women's suffrage AND in prohibition.  There was a time in which this group diverged from the Republicans and dabbled in progressive/radical issues like Free Silver and Socialism, but on the whole this group has been the heart of the GOP since the beginning.

The deep south Whites are the political descendents of Southern Christians, who diverged with the North on the subject of slavery and knitted bigotry and racism into their religion.  Nixon's Southern Strategy made them unlikely allies with the great plains, but as these abhorrent religious ideas are weeded out of the religion and culture of the South, they are becoming more and more indistinguishable (you probably can't tell the difference between a megachurch in Birmingham and one in Omaha).

The libertarian Republicans you speak of are more characteristic of the mountain and coastal west, not of the great plains.  However, as the GOP in general has been propagandizing right-wing economics among their grassroots for some time now, the distictions between all three groups are growing smaller, save for the mountain- and coastal-west Republicans' moderation on moral issues.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

While the hispanic voting block continues to grow it can only help the democrats.

Unless those Hispanics start converting to Evangelical and Pentacostal Christianity, which they are.

The Democrats need to work to break the GOP stranglehold on Evangelicals.  That is how they can start winning back states like Texas.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In another thread Gabu posted this map:



Shows fall in Democratic vote in TX between 1996 and 2004

[jokerman]

The fact is that the hispanic vote isn't much different than the rural white vote that caused our collapse in Texas and most of the South.  It can be certainly described as populist, and it certainly isn't a shoe-in for a party that I am sad to say is wasting too much time blocking judicial nominees and catering to the special interest groups rather than setting a progressive alternative agenda on social security, healthcare, education, etc...

[jimrtex]

There are several things producing the results in your map. First and most significant is the monolith of the Southern white vote. Once Democratic, but now Republicans nearly all Southern whites vote the same way. Next is the large Hispanic population, especially in South Texas which gives the Dems a boost. Finally, is the tradional high plains, libertarian Republican in West Texas. Same kind of people that live in Kansas and the Dakotas. They're an entirely different breed than the religious right Southern Republican, but they are just as partisan and have been in the party far longer.

You missed the German vote around San Antonio and into the Hill Country.  Kendall County voted Democrat in 1912 and 1932.

[jimrtex]

In another thread Gabu posted this map:



Shows fall in Democratic vote in TX between 1996 and 2004

The pink counties are:

Dallas (continued growth of minorities in Dallas as whites migrate to neighboring counties.

Fort Bend.  Black suburban growth particularly in Houston and Missouri City.  The boundary between Harris and Fort Bend Counties is at an oblique angle, so SE portion of boundary is closer to downtown Houston than NE portion where growth is just now starting to occur.

Travis.  Austin, capital, and University of Texas.  There may be some reaction to redistricting all along I-35 as these areas were split up.

Loving.  Too few votes to be statistically significant.

Republican growth areas are in many cases areas where Democrats had retained support.  For example the area in West Texas SE of the panhandle.  Knox County (3rd county south of SW corner of Oklahoma) has only voted Republican 5 times (the panhandle counties have voted Republican since Eisenhower); and NE Texas.  The growth along the Rio Grande is in counties that are 90% Hispanic.  Some of this may be personal support for Bush.

Democrat holds are mainly in suburban areas that may have reached GOP saturation.  Of course, if you are holding at 30% while adding 50,000 voters per election, it doesn't do much for your statewide prospects. 

An exception is Jefferson County in extreme SE Texas, site of Spindletop, Beaumont, and Port Arthur.   Much refineries and heavily unionized.  Continues to vote Democrat.  Hardin County (blue county to its north) is somewhat of a suburban area.

[Sam Spade]

While the hispanic voting block continues to grow it can only help the democrats.

Unless those Hispanics start converting to Evangelical and Pentacostal Christianity, which they are.

The Democrats need to work to break the GOP stranglehold on Evangelicals.  That is how they can start winning back states like Texas.

40% (and growing fast) of the Hispanic population in the US is Protestant and most of these voters are Evangelicals (Pentecostals).  In 2004, this group (Hispanic protestants) provided Bush the biggest ethnic and religious gains of any group; in contrast, Hispanic Catholics did not provided any gains, perhaps even a slight loss.

In Texas, one might say that some of this gain is because of Bush and some of it probably is.  However, in statewide races the trend in 1998-2002 from Hispanic Protestants to voting Republican in statewide Texas races was also there, perhaps slightly less.  This was even with an Hispanic Democrat running for Governor.

This trend does not occur, of course, in CD races or local State House or Senate races (no Republican party local strength there).

The question that continues to remain is whether this trend will continue or whether it won't in 2006.  Unless the Democrats can gain back the Hispanic vote in super-majority numbers, they will not win statewide for a long time. 

All Republicans know that in order to win as a Republican statewide in Texas is to win 35% of the Hispanic vote in Texas.  Since 1998, they have won at least 40%, including considerable gains in East Texas.  This explains the Republican domination.

For Preston:  In Texas, the east Texas rural white Democrats lean populist, however, in west Texas the rural white Democrats tend to be total Blue Dogs (conservative economically and socially)

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

40% (and growing fast) of the Hispanic population in the US is Protestant and most of these voters are Evangelicals (Pentecostals). 

Not to split hairs or anything, but there is a big difference between "Evangelicals" and "Pentacostals."

Evangelicals: These are essentially mainline and Baptist Protestants who emphasize the following:
1. The need for a "personal relationship" with Jesus, and the emotional experience of faith
2. The infallibility of the Bible as God's word
3. The importance of bringing others into the faith

Really, doctrinally, there is no difference between Evangelical Protestants and other Protestants.  Recently Evangelicals have been moving towards a more relaxed worship style, free of liturgy and featuring contemporary music rather than organs and hymns, but as far as what is actually believed, there isn't much of a difference between an Evangelical and, say, a Presbyterian.

Pentecostals (Charismatics): These are Christains who believe that the spiritual "gifts" are still endowed to believers through the Holy Spirit, just as they were in the New Testament.  These gifts include speaking in and understanding strange languages (tongues), healing, prophecy, and the power to cast away demons, among others.  I don't know a whole lot about Pentecostals, but I understand they actually originated in the Catholic church.  They have a lot of beliefs that mainline and evangelical Protestants would be very uncomfortable with.  It wasn't long ago that evangelicals and Baptists had a deep hatred for Pentecostals, and there is still a lot of animosity between the two groups.

One of the biggest Penteconstal demominations is the Assemblies of God, of which John Ashcroft is a member.

In Latin America many people are being converted form the Catholic church to Pentecostalism.  In the United States, where Evangelical megachurches have been highly successful in recruiting Catholics (this is especially true where I live), I think both Evangelicals and Pentecostals have been successfully recruiting Hispanics for the past few years.