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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  538: Texas Dislikes Trump, But That Doesn’t Mean It Will Go Blue In 2018
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Author Topic: 538: Texas Dislikes Trump, But That Doesn’t Mean It Will Go Blue In 2018  (Read 705 times)
Virginiá
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« on: February 04, 2018, 11:05:13 pm »

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/texas-dislikes-trump-but-that-doesnt-mean-it-will-go-blue-in-2018/

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mathstatman
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« Reply #1 on: February 05, 2018, 11:32:14 am »

A lot of votes in TX would have to flip in 2020 for TX to go blue in 2020. A lot.
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Admiral Florida Man
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« Reply #2 on: February 05, 2018, 12:35:30 pm »

The belief that Texas could go Democrat in 2020 is ridiculous. 2024 is more of a possibility, but Trump would literally need to eat a baby on live TV for Democrats to win a plurality in Texas in 2020.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #3 on: February 05, 2018, 01:22:56 pm »

The belief that Texas could go Democrat in 2020 is ridiculous. 2024 is more of a possibility, but Trump would literally need to eat a baby on live TV for Democrats to win a plurality in Texas in 2020.

That's preposterous. A basket of puppies would probably do it.
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TexArkana
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« Reply #4 on: February 05, 2018, 02:37:00 pm »

Yeah, barring a Reagan '80 style landslide in 2020, Texas isn't going blue. Maybe in 2024 if Trump serves two terms or a popular Democrat wins in 2020 and then runs for reelection in 2024.
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cvparty
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« Reply #5 on: February 05, 2018, 02:55:21 pm »

A lot of votes in TX would have to flip in 2020 for TX to go blue in 2020. A lot.
actually, its population is growing so fast...it’s not like the democrat literally needs to flip 400,000 votes from trump
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wxtransit
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« Reply #6 on: February 05, 2018, 03:50:07 pm »

A lot of votes in TX would have to flip in 2020 for TX to go blue in 2020. A lot.
actually, its population is growing so fast...it’s not like the democrat literally needs to flip 400,000 votes from trump
Actual Texan here, and yes, the Democrat does need to flip 400,000 votes. It will be very hard to flip Texas in 2020, if not near impossible. They may get close, but 2024 is far more likely.

The Texas population is growing fast, but it's not all liberal that's growing fast. It's everywhere.
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cvparty
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« Reply #7 on: February 05, 2018, 06:01:48 pm »
« Edited: February 05, 2018, 06:04:35 pm by cvparty »

A lot of votes in TX would have to flip in 2020 for TX to go blue in 2020. A lot.
actually, its population is growing so fast...it’s not like the democrat literally needs to flip 400,000 votes from trump
Actual Texan here, and yes, the Democrat does need to flip 400,000 votes. It will be very hard to flip Texas in 2020, if not near impossible. They may get close, but 2024 is far more likely.

The Texas population is growing fast, but it's not all liberal that's growing fast. It's everywhere.
okay "actual texan," fake texan is pointing out that texas's growth is not everywhere, it's concentrated around the major metro areas: houston, dallas, austin, san antonio, and midland-odessa, ALL of which swung heavily against trump. my point is that considering texas's demography which is changing by the second, it is definitely helpful but not literally necessary to flip an entire 400,000 of trump's voters from 2016.
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MarkD
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« Reply #8 on: February 05, 2018, 06:28:17 pm »

You guys are talking about what might happen in the presidential election of 2020 whereas the OP is talking about what might to the Senate election this year.

I've often pointed out that adult population in Texas, Arizona, and California is not commensurate to potential voters, because so much of the population in those three states is Hispanics who are not U.S. citizens and are not eligible to vote. Congressional districts in those states that have high percentage of Hispanic population have much lower voter turnout than the other districts.
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