Day 18: Louisiana
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  Day 18: Louisiana
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #25 on: October 04, 2005, 03:01:41 PM »

In the short term, perhaps so.  But the city will rebuild.  It will probably take decades, but it needs to rebuild.  And when it does, we'll most likely see a return to the balance as before Katrina.

How are you so sure that New Orleans will return to what it was?  Galveston, Texas, to my knowledge, was once a thriving port city prior to the 1905 hurricane that destroyed it.  It is now only a bedroom community for vacationers.  It has never returned to its former greatness. 

With New Orleans below sea level, I doubt that it will ever be regarded again as being safe for human habitation on a massive scale.  If Hurricane Katrina -which didn't even hit the city directly- could wreak this much damage, imagine the impact another, much stronger hurricane could cause as it aims for the bull's-eye that is New Orleans. 

In 1900, Galveston was the largest city in Texas, larger than Dallas and Houston and also the major port for the Texas area.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #26 on: October 04, 2005, 03:11:48 PM »

Thing to remember about the population shifts is that the New Orleans suburbs (heavily white and Republican) got hit pretty bad as well; especially Jefferson county which has been crucial to statewide GOP candidates. Right now it's impossible to work out what the demographic and political impact of the hurricane will be.

Jefferson Parish actually got pretty lucky.  They were nowhere as badly hit as Slidell and New Orleans, or the coastal Parishes etc.  Many of the houses in the parish didn't flood at all.

The question is who returns, of course.  My guess is that those least likely to return will be the poorest ones, specifically those in the 9th Ward of the city, which is in the lowest part of New Orleans.  The most likely to return to New Orleans et al, will be the people with money (as it always is).

Read into that what you may.  My prediction would be that the Democrats end up in 2006 having a net loss in the New Orleans area by about 25,000-50,000 (meaning about 150,000-200,000 total lost votes).  This will have little impact in Congressional races until 2010 at the earliest, the real question in statewide races of 2007 is whether that 25,000-50,000 loss stays in Louisiana or goes elsewhere.

I guarantee that provided the Republicans don't nominate a minority candidate, Northern Louisiana will be gung-ho yet again to try and get rid of another Cajun out of the Governor's chair. (as they always are)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #27 on: October 04, 2005, 03:22:29 PM »

Jefferson Parish actually got pretty lucky.  They were nowhere as badly hit as Slidell and New Orleans, or the coastal Parishes etc.  Many of the houses in the parish didn't flood at all.

Interesting; seems as though the media gave the wrong impression/misreported *again*... Roll Eyes
Is Jefferson slightly higher above sea-level than the rest of the area then?

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That's the way these things usually end up, yes. Out of interest, what impact do you think all this'll have on Baton Rouge? I remember hearing that it's population has doubled.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #28 on: October 04, 2005, 10:29:37 PM »

Jefferson Parish actually got pretty lucky.  They were nowhere as badly hit as Slidell and New Orleans, or the coastal Parishes etc.  Many of the houses in the parish didn't flood at all.

Interesting; seems as though the media gave the wrong impression/misreported *again*... Roll Eyes
Is Jefferson slightly higher above sea-level than the rest of the area then?

Well, as you can tell by looking at the coast of Louisiana, Jefferson Parish is due south and to the west. 

Because of this rightward turn in Katrina right before impact, I'm pretty much convinced New Orleans never got more than 100 mph winds, and it therefore follows that Jefferson Parish never did either.  Once you get out of the inner eyewall of a hurricane on the west side, the force of damage falls off rapidly, as opposed to the east side.  Look at Baton Rouge versus Mobile for examples of that.

Plus, Jefferson Parish didn't have the same flooding problems New Orleans had because it's main levees are on the Mississippi River and didn't break.  The East Side of Jefferson Parish got it worse than the West Side, if that clarifies anything.

I don't know about elevation.  Elevation is a problem around those areas regardless of where you are, though it is certainly higher in elevation than the poorer parts of New Orleans.

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That's the way these things usually end up, yes. Out of interest, what impact do you think all this'll have on Baton Rouge? I remember hearing that it's population has doubled.
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Hard to tell right now, except that all the real estate in Baton Rouge has been bought up.

The political factor will be determined by how many residents of the New Orleans metropolitan area vote and where they do.

The Democratic party had and always had a very strong machine in New Orleans and the core of it was the aforementioned 9th Ward.  That's one of the main reasons why I'm predicting more of a negative Democratic effect than anything else, frankly, as I don't think most of those residents will return.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #29 on: October 05, 2005, 03:08:33 AM »

In 1900, Galveston was the largest city in Texas, larger than Dallas and Houston and also the major port for the Texas area.
In 1900, Galveston (37K) was the 4th largest city in Texas, behind San Antonio (53K), Houston (45K), and Dallas (38K) and was already beginning to lag behind. 

Congress in 1897 had authorized deepening of the Houston Ship Channel to 25 feet so that it could accomodate ocean-going vessels.  Before then, Houston had developed as a rail center, and cotton was compressed in the city before going by shallow-draft vessel to Galveston.

The Galveston Storm of 1900 did completely stall the growth of Galveston so by 1910 it was dwarfed by the other cities (San Antonio (98K), Dallas (92K), Houston (78K), Fort Worth (73K), El Paso (39K), Galveston (37K)).
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #30 on: October 05, 2005, 04:19:42 AM »

Well, as you can tell by looking at the coast of Louisiana, Jefferson Parish is due south and to the west. 

Because of this rightward turn in Katrina right before impact, I'm pretty much convinced New Orleans never got more than 100 mph winds, and it therefore follows that Jefferson Parish never did either.  Once you get out of the inner eyewall of a hurricane on the west side, the force of damage falls off rapidly, as opposed to the east side.  Look at Baton Rouge versus Mobile for examples of that.

Ah... interesting

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Makes sense

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Indeed it does

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Also interesting

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Was it by any chance the sort of machine that was able to count dead people? Roll Eyes
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jimrtex
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« Reply #31 on: October 05, 2005, 07:11:48 AM »

Jefferson Parish actually got pretty lucky.  They were nowhere as badly hit as Slidell and New Orleans, or the coastal Parishes etc.  Many of the houses in the parish didn't flood at all.

Interesting; seems as though the media gave the wrong impression/misreported *again*... Roll Eyes
Is Jefferson slightly higher above sea-level than the rest of the area then?


The Mississippi River flows primarily east to west (with loops) from south of Baton Rouge (blob on west edge of map) to just east of New Orleans where it turns southeast towards the birdfoot delta.

The main part of New Orleans (NO) is on the east bank (that is, north of the river).   The river surface is above sea level as are the banks (and the river levee).  This is where the original city is, including the French Quarter.
The ground slopes downward toward the north and Lake Pontchartrain - which is actually a bay.  Marshlands along the shoreline of the lake have been drained to permit development and a lake levee built.  Removing the water has caused the soil to compact and subside so that this area is quite a bit below sea level (I think 10 to 15 feet).

There is a small sliver of New Orleans (Orleans Parish is coterminous) on the west bank, southeast of the center of the city.  This is also on higher (above sea level) ground along the river.  This area, known as Algiers is the first part of the city that has been opened up for re-occupation and has electricity, water, and sewer.

Jefferson Parish (JE) is west and south of Orleans Parish.  The main area including Metairie, Kenner, and Louis Armstrong Airport is on the east bank, immediately west of New Orleans.

Metairie is immediately west of New Orleans, and has a similar elevation boundary.  The 17th Street Canal is on the parish boundary.  It breeched on the east side, and flooded New Orleans.  Had the west side breeched it would have flooded Metairie.  As it was, some water worked its way around the southern end of the canal and into Metairie, though this was blocked off fairly quickly, in part because it was toward the high end.  Jefferson Parish probably had less wind damage because it further west from the path of the hurricane.

The canal is not a navigation canal, but a drainage canal.  Water is pumped up to the canal, which ordinarily flows northward into Lake Pontchartrain.

Jefferson Parish also includes an area on the west bank (south of New Orleans), including suburbs of Westwego, Marrero, and Gretna.

Further south in Jefferson Parish is Lafitte (LA).  It received a storm surge during Hurricane Rita.  In the news this was reported as Jefferson Parish flooding, even though the area is at the head of a southward facing bay.  Wind flow around a northern hemisphere cyclone is counterclockwise, with the strongest winds usually on the northeast.  During Katrina, the winds here were mostly from the north, which tended to push or at least hold the storm surge out.  During Rita, this was on the northeast side of the storm track for several days, which pushed the storm surge up, even though it was 100+ miles from the storm center.

Grand Isle (GI) is a barrier island.  Its only connection to the rest of Jefferson Parish is by water.  The land route is from the west (follow the red lights toward the northwest).  It regularly recieves hurricane damage, and had lots of wind damage during Katrina.

Plaquemines Parish (PL) is southeast of New Orleans along the Missisissippi River to the birdfoot delta.  Settlement is right along the river, between two levees.  Storm surge animations basically show the parish disappearing except for this thin strip.  The levees overtopped during Katrina trapping water in between, until they were breached to permit draining.

St Bernard Parish (SB) is east of New Orleans.  It sustained a much more direct hit, plus a storm surge.

St Tammany Parish (ST) is north of Lake Pontchartrain.  There are two causeways, one connecting Metairie with Covington (lights in SW corner of parish), and another northeastward to Slidell (SL) in the southeast corridor.  This is a twin span carrying I-10 east to Mississippi, Mobile and into Florida.   It is about 20 feet above the water, and many of the segments were displaced or dislodged.  Temporary repairs are being made now to open one span.

St Tammany had lots of wind damage (many pine trees), and Slidell had flooding due to a mainly direct hit.  There was also some flooding along the shoreline.

Mississippi is east of St Tammany, and took a direct hit from the storm surge which was directly on shore.   Gulfport (GU) and Biloxi (BI) are along the coast.  Mobile Bay (Alabama) is the inlet in the extreme NE corner of the map.  There was also a lot of wind damage that extended inland.

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During the 1990s, New Orleans was one of the slowest growing metropolitan areas (slower than Detroit and Philadelphia, faster than Pittsburgh and Cleveland), extremely atypical for the south.

Orleans had a 5.5% decline, Jefferson and St Bernard were about even, and St Tammany a 44% increase (to 200K+).

Baton Rouge has the advantage of being large enough to be able to house lots of people on a temporary basis, and close enough (80 miles) to commute from on a temporary basis.  I don't know that long term it will have the jobs.  If oil companies move offices from New Orleans, it will be to Houston.  The port can't move, nor can the cultural activities.   People without jobs will move to Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, and Florida.

The rental market in Jefferson Parish and on the west bank should be really tight, as well as in St Tammany, especially after the I-10 causeway is repaired.  I'd expect St Tammany to continue to grow, and also attract people who are more flood wary.  There might be some smaller regional companies that move some operations to Baton Rouge.

East Baton Rouge Parish could become the most populous in the state, but it might have happened without the hurricane.  Now it might occur by 2010 instead of 2020.

1990 to 2003 population in 1000s.
EBR   380  412
Orleans  496   469
Jefferson   448   452
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jimrtex
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« Reply #32 on: October 05, 2005, 07:48:58 AM »

I don't know about elevation.  Elevation is a problem around those areas regardless of where you are, though it is certainly higher in elevation than the poorer parts of New Orleans.

New Orleans elevation cross-section.


New Orleans elevations.


The thin lines in Lake Pontchartrain are the parish boundaries that extend into the center of the lake.  The original city is in the U-shaped loop in the river (below where I-10 makes it jog across - I-610 is a shortcut across the jog).

The Jefferson-Orleans parish line is just west of where I-610 and I-10 split (eastbound).  The 17th Street Canal is on the boundary.

The next boundary is St Charles-Jefferson.  St Charles does not appear to have a lake levee, so it shows more of the natural appearance.

Pretty interesting article about the west bank of Jefferson Parish, south of the river It appears to be from 2000.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #33 on: October 05, 2005, 07:55:35 AM »

Great stuff, thanks Smiley
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #34 on: October 05, 2005, 10:07:32 AM »

I'd just like to add that the danger of multiple breaches was fairly small - as soon as water was flowing freely into New Orleans, the pressure on levees further west must have decreased substantially.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #35 on: October 05, 2005, 01:00:39 PM »

Thanks jimrtex, for the excellent maps and also for pointing out I was slightly wrong on the Galveston population thing.  Smiley
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