UK local elections, May 2018

[jaichind]

Its early but looking not bad for CON.

[vileplume]

Seems like the clear majority of the losses are because of Conservatives gaining virtually all the UKIP vote.

For example, the seat of Arbury had the Conservatives gain 23% from their last election, and UKIP got 24% in that seat.

Well in 2014 Labour beat the Tories 72-28 in a straight fight the Poplar ward (Nuneaton & Bedworth) but the Tories just gained that, so the UKIP collapse is not the whole story. Though tbf Bedworth is an area that Labour has been doing especially badly of late.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Labour incumbent in Sedgley was re-elected by miles. Odd detail here is that Labour lost Sedgley but held Kersal back in 2016.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A rather less than glorious night for Labour in general so far. It's not a simple matter of THE REFERENDUM or whatever either so ignore all such #analysis - results seem to be pretty underwhelming across the board, to the extent that one can generalise about local elections.

[Oryxslayer]

Anything in from London yet? I suspect these might like the 2017 locals, where labor gets pummeled in rurals/smalltown and does better in the urban areas. Of course with polling as it is, better probably means gains in the city.

Also looks like 2017 in the way that looks like there is a near universal UKIP -> Con.

SF holds the by-election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A small LibDem resurgence in the more middle class parts of Liverpool, I note.

[jaichind]

The London 2014 local elections were very favorable to LAB.  I find it hard to believe they can gain that much beyond what they achieved in 2014 especially with the 2014 UKIP vote most likely going CON and Greens eating away at the 2017 UK general election LAB vote.

[jaichind]

UKIP finally wins a seat

[Lachi]

Apparent 10%+ swings in Trafford. It's falling to Labour, no doubt.

[Lachi]

LD, on anecdotal evidence, "Seems to be on track to gain Richmond"

[Torrain]

UKIP finally wins a seat

They’ll be an independent before their term is up.

[Oryxslayer]

Lab finally up overall on the night - though every big party is. More rumors buzzing around about how Lodon is more divided rather then a Labslide,

West midlands overall just flashed on BBC:

Lab -8
Con +26
Lib dem 0
GReen +1
UKIP/other - 19

[ON Progressive]

Labour look on track to take control of Plymouth. Picked off 2 Conservative seats there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Indications from wards in so far are that Labour will fall short in Wandsworth - given the GE results there and the fact that the special factors that led to its very distinctive local results in the 90s no longer apply, this would be a rather poor result.

[Oryxslayer]

Labour look on track to take control of Plymouth. Picked off 2 Conservative seats there.

Speak of the devil, confirmed now. First Lab gain. Apparently this is a rather unique situation due to the lack of direct government military funding (lack of missiles on ships for example) to an area that is very military invested.

[ON Progressive]

Looking very sure that Lib Dems will gain Richmond. Half the seats are declared, and the Lib Dems only need 4 of the next 27 to go their way to gain control.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Indications from wards in so far are that Labour will fall short in Wandsworth - given the GE results there and the fact that the special factors that led to its very distinctive local results in the 90s no longer apply, this would be a rather poor result.

Though - critically - it is rather tight and it's not impossible that things might fall the right way.

[ON Progressive]

Lib Dems have officially taken control of Richmond-upon-Thames.

33/54 seats declared, Lib Dems have 28 of them. Greens are actually doing really well, they have three seats so far. Cons with just two.

[Oryxslayer]

Indications from wards in so far are that Labour will fall short in Wandsworth - given the GE results there and the fact that the special factors that led to its very distinctive local results in the 90s no longer apply, this would be a rather poor result.

Though - critically - it is rather tight and it's not impossible that things might fall the right way.

Indications from wards in so far are that Labour will fall short in Wandsworth - given the GE results there and the fact that the special factors that led to its very distinctive local results in the 90s no longer apply, this would be a rather poor result.

Though - critically - it is rather tight and it's not impossible that things might fall the right way.

As BBC just said, and I retweeted, the results appear very very correlated to 2016 and not 2017. lab and Lib are wiping out the Tories in London, I believe someone said Con will probably end up with 3ish councils in the city. Outside London, Tories are mainly making gains at expense of UKIP and LAB, with the exceptions of a few areas like Plymouth.

[Oryxslayer]

Labor goes 4 seats backwards in Hillingdon.

[Tintrlvr]

If you look only at results outside of London, it looks like a strong night for the Tories. If you look only at results in London, it looks like a disaster for the Tories. Inverse for Labour, of course. Will be an interesting post mortem. Lib Dems are doing reasonably well for themselves overall in the circumstances, persistently refusing to roll over and die. And UKIP of course is in a state of complete collapse.

[Pericles]

Labour has had an underwhelming night it seems. Especially compared to expectations which they puffed up far too much. May is slightly safer and Corbyn slightly weaker(probably won't have a dramatic impact though).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If you look only at results outside of London, it looks like a strong night for the Tories. If you look only at results in London, it looks like a disaster for the Tories. Inverse for Labour, of course.

I don't see how that's true at all? The results in London are much better for the Tories than even more sensible briefings suggested - o/c they were defending poor results in much of the city from 2014.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It’s an absolute monstering for Labour in the very Jewish ward of Garden Suburb. Huge increase in the Conservative vote.

Not much doubt that a loss of Jewish support in Barnet has wrecked any chance of a Labour majority there, but this is a silly example: Garden Suburb ward is Hampstead Garden Suburb one of the richest neighbourhoods in the country and historically one of Labour's worst wards in the capital - not because of its Jewishness, but its wealth. Used to be that Labour did well to break 15% there - the 23% in 2014 was an unusually good result. Was once a big Liberal vote there as well, though miles behind the Tories o/c.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

very surprising result for the lib dems in Hull

The administration is always unpopular no matter the party (it's presently Labour) and the LibDems are an established municipal protest vote in the city - one that doesn't transfer over into national politics.