UK local elections, May 2018

[Blair]

It seems the recent national polling has CON opening a small lead over LAB over the last couple of months.  Given the fact these seats were last fought back in 2014 would we not expect the CON to gain seats this time around?  I guess it really depends on how the 2014 UKIP vote will flow.  2017 UK national elections taught us that a UKIP collapse does not automatically help CON.

Mostly urban areas, especially London, which swung heavily towards Labour in 2017. That's the thing to be thinking about more than headline polling figures

So the assertion here is the lean of places like London and other urban areas that are voting in 2018 has trended more LAB since 2014 as to make up for the relative decline of LAB in 2018 when compared to 2014 in national polls?

Pretty much. Also I think by 2014 Labour's national polling had dropped to around 35%

[parochial boy]

Random thought, considering the Windrush scandal, and how this showed up how a large number of legal residents and UK citizens would regularly have no proof of citizenship/ID or whatever; and considering the governments drive to introduce ID requirements for voting, which is being trialled in a few local authorities today.

This is going to be a major problem isn't it?

[cp]

Random thought, considering the Windrush scandal, and how this showed up how a large number of legal residents and UK citizens would regularly have no proof of citizenship/ID or whatever; and considering the governments drive to introduce ID requirements for voting, which is being trialled in a few local authorities today.

This is going to be a major problem isn't it?

I'm not too concerned about that. As you mention, the voter ID requirement is only being used in a few jurisdictions. More importantly, voting is organized via the electoral register which is operated by each council. Once you sign up the first time you're on for good (except in NI) and they send you a polling card in the post weeks before the election. Between that and the fact that I'm pretty sure it's possible to register on the day with only a few simple forms of ID (bank statements/gas bill to prove address; driver's license to prove identity), it's unlikely to deter or prevent any would-be voters.  

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'm pretty sure my grandma would be disenfranchised under voter ID system: she has never learnt how to drive and her passport has expired.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's no way this kind of thing can be remotely equitable unless you have a uniform and comprehensive system of identification. Perhaps in the form of a card.

[Tintrlvr]

Are some councils expected to report results tonight? If so, any idea which ones might the first to come out (and what time - I'm assuming starting around 11pm or so in the UK?)?

[vileplume]

Are some councils expected to report results tonight? If so, any idea which ones might the first to come out (and what time - I'm assuming starting around 11pm or so in the UK?)?

These are estimated times of declaration:

http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/all_2018_by_time.php

The first 2 at ~00:30 are Broxbourne and Sunderland, neither of which are likely to be particularly interesting.

The first really interesting one is Swindon at 01:00. The Tories will very likely regain overall control of Basildon at this time too which means that if they also hold Swindon it will perhaps set the early tone of the evening off as 'Tories doing better than expected' (that is until London starts to come in).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Things to note briefly:

1. Most early rumours are lies. Please don't report them as facts.

2. 2014 was an odd set of locals in that both main parties performed poorly outside the capital due to UKIP (the elections were held on the same day as the European Election in which UKIP topped the poll nationally). The extent to which people will remember this will depend on whether doing so suits whatever bullsh!t talking point they're trying to advance.

3. Although the Tories did badly in most of London in 2014 they held up quite well in the inner West, apart from Hammersmith & Fulham where a very right-wing (in inner London Tory terms) was ousted in a wave of anti-gentrification protest. Subsequently, of course, we have had the whole Brexit issue.

3. Particularly dramatic results are usually the product of local scandals and so on. You must always be aware of this when looking at local polls.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/992163547915399168

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I would suggest not posting every single ward result in this or any other thread

[LimoLiberal]

I would suggest not posting every single ward result in this or any other thread

Oh, I should've been more clear. Just wanted to note that results were coming in and that that was the first of the night.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It will be slow for a while, but in a few hours you'll be deluged.

[AelroseB]

Any ideas on what caused the immense LibDem swing in Pallion (Sunderland)?

[ObserverIE]

Any ideas on what caused the immense LibDem swing in Pallion (Sunderland)?

They picked up a seat in the ward in a by-election last year so it may be a Local Surge for Local People.

[AelroseB]

Any ideas on what caused the immense LibDem swing in Pallion (Sunderland)?

They picked up a seat in the ward in a by-election last year so it may be a Local Surge for Local People.

Intriguing!  The LibDems have tended to wield good appeal in local elections, so I guess this result shouldn't be too shocking.

[vileplume]

Any ideas on what caused the immense LibDem swing in Pallion (Sunderland)?

They picked up a seat in the ward in a by-election last year so it may be a Local Surge for Local People.

They're doing very poorly against the Tories as well though. They've jost lost Barnes and came very close to losing Doxford.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Do you guys think the whole Amber Rudd debacle affected anything?

[Pericles]

It'll be interesting to see how this goes. Problem is expectations are through the roof for Labour and conventional wisdom is that it'll be a Tory disaster, so a good result for Labour may end up being seen as underwhelming.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any ideas on what caused the immense LibDem swing in Pallion (Sunderland)?

They picked up a seat in the ward in a by-election last year so it may be a Local Surge for Local People.

They're doing very poorly against the Tories as well though. They've jost lost Barnes and came very close to losing Doxford.

The administration is not very popular for various reasons. Barnes o/c used to be a fairly solid Tory ward and Doxford can be very swingy (capable of big Labour leads - esp. when there's a high turnout - but also losable).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

awful results for Labour in Nuneaton

If you remember last year the results from that borough for the Warwickshire County Council elections were so utterly awful that they led to an inaccurate narrative of the national picture 'cos they were also amongst the very first divisions to declare anywhere. As it turns out they were pretty much the very worst set of results anywhere as well...

[Cassius]

Wouldn’t read much into these results - they’re few in number and are from areas where Labour performed fairly underwhelmingly (vis a vis its national result in terms of its vote increase) in the general election last year. They’re certainly not representative of the type of areas that Labour might hope to make impressive gains in tonight, given that they’re older, whiter and saw large UKIP votes in 2014.

[ON Progressive]

Seems like the clear majority of the losses are because of Conservatives gaining virtually all the UKIP vote.

For example, the seat of Arbury had the Conservatives gain 23% from their last election, and UKIP got 24% in that seat.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Does anyone know where I can find live results?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Liberal Dems got a pretty decent 7.9 swing in Sunderland. In fact, every party in Sunderland got a positive swing, thanks to UKIP's implosion.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Important thing to note for people who are not British: turnout in local elections isn't far off half that of a GE.