Why is Iowa a swing state?

[darklordoftech]

Who are the Republican voters, who are the Democrat voters, and who are the swing voters in Iowa?

[Ban my account ffs!]

in all three cases... old white people.  The eastern part of the state is part of the Upper Midwest pocket that has been friendly to Democrats.  NW Illinois, SW Wisconsin, NE Iowa, and SE Minnesota are the areas in this region.

Here is a map from the 2012 prez election that outlines the region


The article that map is connected to can't find any particular reason that region votes Democratic since it's rural, agricultural, and overwhelmingly white.

This region does have a distinct identity centered on the upper Mississippi River.  It draws tourists from bigger midwestern cities that like to go "antiquing" or stay in bed and breakfasts.

Places like Galena, IL


Redwing, MN




It's a well educated, relatively prosperous area with great scenery and general homogeneity.  I think those things equal a political liberalism or, at least, open mindedness.

[Hydera]

Eastern Iowa Along with the rest of the driftless area is more socially liberal in comparison to other areas in their respective states.




South eastern minnesota voted for a ban on gay marriage but there was a 40%+ vote against in those counties.



In 2006, Wisconsin voted for a return of capital punishment however the driftless area voted 40%+ for No.



Then you have Iowa. There was a referendum to either Retain(Green) or End(Red) the term of a Iowa Supreme Court Justice who voted that a ban on gay marriage in the state be unconstitutional. While he did win votes from people who disapproved of gay marriage. Most of his votes was probably from areas that supported gay marriage/against any ban.



Now compare with Kerry's 2004 map.

and Obama's 2012 map.





TLDR: Eastern Iowa is more socially and probably economic left-leaning which wouldnt be surprising since its closer to the great lakes and Western iowa more conservative because its nearer to the influence of Social conservatism in the Plains region.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Piggybacking on the other two comments: that NE area of Iowa (the Driftless Area) is a political anomaly in part because it has a higher concentration of Scandanavian voters (think rural DFL voters in Minnesota) than the rest of the state (which I am assuming is more German and/or Scots Irish).

[Oh Benjamin Harrison]

Who are the Republican voters, who are the Democrat voters, and who are the swing voters in Iowa?

For the same reason WA,OR,MA,VT are democrat its called liberal whites. However Trump did win the whole southeastern MN-IA and southwestern WI-IL.

[Joe McCarthy Was Right]

Cedar County has determined the winner of Iowa in every election since 1952. The most common religious group in that county are Methodists.