TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11

[TomC]

Wait wtf, why is this sample only 5% black? The black population in TN is 17%, so I'd expect the electorate to at least be 15% black.

I'd say 12%-14% is likely.

[TomC]

Considering the fact that Republicans routinely romp in Tennessee by anywhere from 20-50 points, an 11 point win would actually be excellent evidence of a Democratic wave.

But yes, this race is safe R, unless it turns out that Blackburn is a pedophile.

No serious Democrat has run since 2006 so 20-50% is the floor. Bredesen is far from a nobody and Blackburn is not the moderate patrician TN GOP is used to electing.

Bredesen will be within 9.69%

[TomC]

Wait wtf, why is this sample only 5% black? The black population in TN is 17%, so I'd expect the electorate to at least be 15% black.

And why is the sample 46% republican? Surely there are less Republicans in TN than that (although I bet indies here are pretty titanium R anyways).

No that partisan breakdown is fairly accurate. As of 2014 at least TN party registration was 47% Republican 35% Democrat. Parties have a fair bit of strength down there.

We do not register by party in Tennessee.