|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 12, 2020, 05:08:41 pm
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, afleitch, Hash)
  Polish 2020 Presidential Election (28 June) (previously 2019 Elections)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 14 15 16 17 18 [19] 20 21 22 23 24 ... 27
Author Topic: Polish 2020 Presidential Election (28 June) (previously 2019 Elections)  (Read 38069 times)
swl
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 582
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #450 on: June 29, 2020, 04:26:10 am »

Yea.. not bad for Duda. It will be tight but I expect him to win with 51% or 52%. Many people say that Bosak voters will split between the PIS and PO but at least Bosak's Facebook page they are overwhelmingly pro Duda.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,454
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #451 on: June 29, 2020, 04:33:08 am »

Yea.. not bad for Duda. It will be tight but I expect him to win with 51% or 52%. Many people say that Bosak voters will split between the PIS and PO but at least Bosak's Facebook page they are overwhelmingly pro Duda.

I think the result will depend on how much the Hołownia vote turnout in the second round.  Some of them are most likely protest voters that will sit it out in the second round but it is not clear how much.  The rest of them will for sure vote Trzaskowski.
Logged
Uncle Ruckus, No Relation.
Kalwejt
Global Moderator
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,098


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #452 on: June 29, 2020, 08:36:00 am »


It's always funny to see candidates who managed to collect 100,000 signatures required to be on the ballot ending up with a negligible number of votes.
Logged
Uncle Ruckus, No Relation.
Kalwejt
Global Moderator
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,098


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #453 on: June 29, 2020, 08:45:42 am »

It's the lowest (percentage wise) point for the main left-wing candidate in history of direct elections.

1990: Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz (SdRP): 9.2%
1995: Aleksander Kwaśniewski (SLD): 35.1 (1st round), 51.7 (2nd round)
2000: Aleksander Kwaśniewski (SLD): 53.9%
2005: Marek Borowski (SDPL): 10.3%
2010: Grzegorz Napieralski (SLD): 13.68%
2015: Magdalena Ogórek (SLD): 2.38%
2020: Robert Biedroń (Left): 2.21%
Logged
bigic
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 418
Serbia and Montenegro


Political Matrix
E: 2.32, S: -7.30


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #454 on: June 29, 2020, 09:16:44 am »


It's always funny to see candidates who managed to collect 100,000 signatures required to be on the ballot ending up with a negligible number of votes.
But how do they manage to collect so many signatures? Paying money for them? Getting help from a bigger party (in Serbia it's often alleged that the dominant party SNS collects signatures for smaller allied and/or spoiler parties)?
Logged
CumbrianLeftie
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,752
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #455 on: June 29, 2020, 09:25:00 am »

It's the lowest (percentage wise) point for the main left-wing candidate in history of direct elections.

1990: Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz (SdRP): 9.2%
1995: Aleksander Kwaśniewski (SLD): 35.1 (1st round), 51.7 (2nd round)
2000: Aleksander Kwaśniewski (SLD): 53.9%
2005: Marek Borowski (SDPL): 10.3%
2010: Grzegorz Napieralski (SLD): 13.68%
2015: Magdalena Ogórek (SLD): 2.38%
2020: Robert Biedroń (Left): 2.21%

Given that the left polled double digits in the most recent parliamentary elections, it is clear many of those votes went elsewhere - to the second and third placed candidates presumably?
Logged
Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
tack50
Atlas Politician
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,687
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #456 on: June 29, 2020, 11:40:51 am »

My prediction for round 2 is Duda wins 52-48
Logged
7sergi9
Rookie
**
Posts: 190


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #457 on: June 29, 2020, 03:29:23 pm »


X2
Logged
Heat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 301
Poland


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #458 on: June 29, 2020, 05:46:55 pm »
« Edited: June 29, 2020, 05:50:16 pm by Heat »

It's the lowest (percentage wise) point for the main left-wing candidate in history of direct elections.

1990: Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz (SdRP): 9.2%
1995: Aleksander Kwaśniewski (SLD): 35.1 (1st round), 51.7 (2nd round)
2000: Aleksander Kwaśniewski (SLD): 53.9%
2005: Marek Borowski (SDPL): 10.3%
2010: Grzegorz Napieralski (SLD): 13.68%
2015: Magdalena Ogórek (SLD): 2.38%
2020: Robert Biedroń (Left): 2.21%

Given that the left polled double digits in the most recent parliamentary elections, it is clear many of those votes went elsewhere - to the second and third placed candidates presumably?
If you believe the exit poll, 46% went for Trzaskowski and 22% went for Holownia. Which seems plausible.

I posted this elsewhere as well, but I'll repost it here as it may be informative for some:

Quote
2001 was now almost twenty years ago and many of the people who voted for SLD-UP/Samoobrona/PSL then are dead and their children and grandchildren do not necessarily share their worldview (which was not necessarily compatible with what would be understood as social democracy in the West). Others have likely emigrated. The failure to understand this is one of the most common analytical mistakes in recent Polish political commentary.

The last three presidential elections have fallen into the same pattern of three relevant candidates: one PiS candidate, one anti-PiS candidate, and one candidate who gathers an unstable coalition by claiming to challenge the duopoly and offer vague change. Since 2015, the far-right has also begun to make some semi-respectable showings. The second role is filled by the PO candidate by default (though this may not have occurred this time if Kidawa-Blonska hadn't been replaced) while the third has been filled by Napieralski, Kukiz, and now Holownia. Biedron was a flawed and, above all, reluctant candidate whose campaign was managed by morons up until late May (by which point there was nothing left to salvage), and the Left miscalculated by not realising that its voters were the most scared of coronavirus and the most concerned about PiS rigging a May postal election. The last month of Biedron's campaign was probably the best (because the mentally subnormal and lazy Łódź MPs who'd unaccountably been put in charge were sidelined in favour of Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk), it was just that the electorate had lost interest since there was no real prospect of toggling into either slot #2 or #3.

In so far as there is any conclusion on the long-term fate of the Polish Left to be drawn from this, it's that the Left need to commission some proper research into who voted for them in 2019 and why, and what groups of voters they could attract and under which circumstances now, because it's clear they don't actually know and spent this election flying blind.
Logged
kireev
Rookie
**
Posts: 80


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #459 on: June 29, 2020, 07:11:07 pm »



See other maps here https://wbdata.pl/mapy-wyborcze-wybory-prezydenta-2020-i-tura/
Logged
rob in cal
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,874
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #460 on: June 30, 2020, 12:37:28 am »

How much of the Biedron and WKK electorate is winnable for Duda?  Would some left leaning voters who supported them be from the lower less educated classes and might like Duda over Trzaskowski?
Logged
Heat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 301
Poland


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #461 on: June 30, 2020, 01:11:46 am »
« Edited: June 30, 2020, 01:15:01 am by Heat »

How much of the Biedron and WKK electorate is winnable for Duda?  Would some left leaning voters who supported them be from the lower less educated classes and might like Duda over Trzaskowski?
According to present polling, >90% of Biedron voters will go for Trzaskowski. There are no reserves for Duda to be found there, the 2019 Left electorate does not appear to be demographically distinct enough from the PO electorate for that. The picture is less clear with WKK but it is currently believed that a supermajority of his voters will also vote for Trzaskowski. The caveat is that Polish polling is crap, but both those conclusions seem intuitive.
Logged
PSOL
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,293


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #462 on: June 30, 2020, 01:27:19 am »

So, from the pathetic showing we’ve seen so far, is Biedroń’s career at national politics over?
Logged
urutzizu
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 805
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #463 on: June 30, 2020, 02:04:46 am »

Diaspora results have now finalized:

TRZASKOWSKI Rafał: 48,13%
DUDA Andrzej: 20,86%
HOŁOWNIA Szymon: 15,68%
BOSAK Krzysztof: 8,78%

Only about 311 thousand total votes

UK: TRZASKOWSKI Rafał: 48,37%
Germany: TRZASKOWSKI Rafał: 52,54%
Ireland: TRZASKOWSKI Rafał: 48,85%
USA: DUDA Andrzej: 50,67%

I know that Diaspora turnout was adversely impacted by Coronavirus this year, but it still seems like (and it's something just anecdotally I have noticed with many Poles I know in Germany as well) that the Polish Diaspora seems to have much less strong opinions on Polish Politics, than other countries with similar societal polarisation and Issues with democratic backsliding (Turkey comes to mind, practically every Turk in the diaspora has some sort of strong opinion on Erdogan). Is this perception accurate? What are the reasons for it?
Logged
Heat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 301
Poland


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #464 on: June 30, 2020, 02:14:41 am »

Diaspora results have now finalized:

TRZASKOWSKI Rafał: 48,13%
DUDA Andrzej: 20,86%
HOŁOWNIA Szymon: 15,68%
BOSAK Krzysztof: 8,78%

Only about 311 thousand total votes

UK: TRZASKOWSKI Rafał: 48,37%
Germany: TRZASKOWSKI Rafał: 52,54%
Ireland: TRZASKOWSKI Rafał: 48,85%
USA: DUDA Andrzej: 50,67%

I know that Diaspora turnout was adversely impacted by Coronavirus this year, but it still seems like (and it's something just anecdotally I have noticed with many Poles I know in Germany as well) that the Polish Diaspora seems to have much less strong opinions on Polish Politics, than other countries with similar societal polarisation and Issues with democratic backsliding (Turkey comes to mind, practically every Turk in the diaspora has some sort of strong opinion on Erdogan). Is this perception accurate? What are the reasons for it?
Compare the typical turnouts in Turkish elections with Polish elections pre-2018.
Logged
Uncle Ruckus, No Relation.
Kalwejt
Global Moderator
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,098


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #465 on: June 30, 2020, 04:19:01 am »
« Edited: June 30, 2020, 11:03:59 am by Mr. Kleks »

So, from the pathetic showing we’ve seen so far, is Biedroń’s career at national politics over?

It's really seems that at some point Biedroń and the Left simply stopped caring, and a lot of Left's voters, myself including, decided it'd be better to vote Trzaskowski in the first round already (I wouldn't have voted for Kidawa, unless there was a runoff).

WKK's situation is interesting, given he was riding high before the May election was canceled, even beating Duda in some hypothetical second round polls. While his result is PSL's best presidential since 2006 (when Jarosław Kalinowski got 6%, which was considered a huge success, given 5% is a threshold in Sejm elections), it's still very disappointing. His position as party leader doesn't seem to be in jeopardy, though.  
Logged
Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
tack50
Atlas Politician
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,687
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #466 on: June 30, 2020, 05:26:24 am »


Looks like Poland is realigning in a way from the usual West vs East alignment to a more "traditional" rural areas vs urban areas alignment or is the map misleading in that way?

Tbf I do think Trzaskowski will win in the rural west in the runoff.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,543


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #467 on: June 30, 2020, 08:43:11 am »


Looks like Poland is realigning in a way from the usual West vs East alignment to a more "traditional" rural areas vs urban areas alignment or is the map misleading in that way?

Tbf I do think Trzaskowski will win in the rural west in the runoff.

I mean part of the reason the East-West divide is a thing in Poland is thanks to the comparatively high urbanization and historic development of the West. When PO loses by 10 points than the western rurals are going to slide away leaving the committed cities. However, if we look at where Trzaskowski over and underperformed his national result, the East-West divide still is apparent - albeit with a few gaps such as the rural parts of the old Polish Corridor being better for PiS than their neighbors.

Logged
palandio
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 663


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #468 on: June 30, 2020, 10:13:23 am »


Looks like Poland is realigning in a way from the usual West vs East alignment to a more "traditional" rural areas vs urban areas alignment or is the map misleading in that way?

Tbf I do think Trzaskowski will win in the rural west in the runoff.

I mean part of the reason the East-West divide is a thing in Poland is thanks to the comparatively high urbanization and historic development of the West. When PO loses by 10 points than the western rurals are going to slide away leaving the committed cities. However, if we look at where Trzaskowski over and underperformed his national result, the East-West divide still is apparent - albeit with a few gaps such as the rural parts of the old Polish Corridor being better for PiS than their neighbors.

[...]
I think that the map is misleading although at this point it is difficult to say to which degree. The "orange islands in a sea of blue" optic is certainly problematic. What counts is the scale in between.

The best approach is probably to look at the second round maps from 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 (when available of course) and then to do some classic swing/trend analysis. Using the first round maps is probably misleading as well because of third party candidates distorting the picture. Hołownia for example despite being from Białystok was strongest in the West and North-West. His results in the big Eastern cities (Warsaw, Lodz, Krakow) were only average.
Logged
Heat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 301
Poland


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #469 on: June 30, 2020, 10:56:13 am »
« Edited: June 30, 2020, 11:15:52 am by Heat »

If you look at the broad strokes (I'm not insane enough to do proposography of the individual municipalities), the Holownia map looks like a map of areas that had lots of resettlement from now-Western Belarus and areas with high concentrations of ethnic and religious minorities. Peak 'that would be an ecumenical matter', so actually a fairly logical coalition for someone like him to end up with.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,454
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #470 on: June 30, 2020, 11:17:52 am »

Holownia seems to have indicated that he is  "voting against" Duda but will not officially endorse any candidate for the runoff.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 63,155
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #471 on: June 30, 2020, 11:31:32 am »

If you look at the broad strokes (I'm not insane enough to do proposography of the individual municipalities), the Holownia map looks like a map of areas that had lots of resettlement from now-Western Belarus and areas with high concentrations of ethnic and religious minorities. Peak 'that would be an ecumenical matter', so actually a fairly logical coalition for someone like him to end up with.

E.g. clear signs of strong support from Silesian Germans and so on.
Logged
Heat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 301
Poland


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #472 on: June 30, 2020, 11:39:39 am »

If you look at the broad strokes (I'm not insane enough to do proposography of the individual municipalities), the Holownia map looks like a map of areas that had lots of resettlement from now-Western Belarus and areas with high concentrations of ethnic and religious minorities. Peak 'that would be an ecumenical matter', so actually a fairly logical coalition for someone like him to end up with.

E.g. clear signs of strong support from Silesian Germans and so on.
Yes, very logical for a candidate who radiates ecumenical, non-offensive Catholicism. The resettlement thing gets funnier the more I think about it - it's been 75 years and, on one level or another, these people still seem to recognise a semi-homeboy when they see one.
Logged
Uncle Ruckus, No Relation.
Kalwejt
Global Moderator
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,098


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #473 on: June 30, 2020, 11:47:39 am »

By the way, this year's #bazarek (supposed leaked exit polls disguised as market prices) really sucked.

Duda was, predictably, mostly denoted as "Budyń" (pudding, reflecting his insipidness), or the "Pencil" (because he's signing everything Kaczyński tells him to sign). Trzaskowski was "Dżem" (jam, don't really know why).
Logged
Heat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 301
Poland


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #474 on: June 30, 2020, 11:50:09 am »
« Edited: June 30, 2020, 12:14:12 pm by Heat »

By the way, this year's #bazarek (supposed leaked exit polls disguised as market prices) really sucked.
As soon as I noticed that 'lewitujacy umysl' prick getting big numbers for obvious disinformation I decided to just completely ignore anyone who wasn't Palade. I think in so far as anyone other than him on Twitter actually has access to legitimate exit polls before they're made public, they're all on locked accounts these days.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 14 15 16 17 18 [19] 20 21 22 23 24 ... 27  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.199 seconds with 14 queries.