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Author Topic: Polish Politics and Elections  (Read 104409 times)
Umengus
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« Reply #425 on: June 28, 2020, 02:10:49 PM »

Exit polls

Duda           41.8
Trzaskowski  30.4
 

Mostly match pre-election polls

Not bad for duda.
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jaichind
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« Reply #426 on: June 28, 2020, 02:22:08 PM »

Duda has to consolidate the Bosak vote and hope that the Hołownia vote does not turn out in the second round.  Overall Duda matching pre-election polls despite an unfavorable turnout pattern for him bodes well for him on the second round.
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jaichind
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« Reply #427 on: June 28, 2020, 02:22:26 PM »

Any links to real results ?
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Keep Calm and ...
OldEurope
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« Reply #428 on: June 28, 2020, 02:32:10 PM »

I think this is right

https://wybory.gov.pl/prezydent20200628/en
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President Johnson
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« Reply #429 on: June 28, 2020, 02:41:21 PM »
« Edited: June 28, 2020, 03:11:58 PM by President Johnson »

Would be interesting to see a map. I assume there is a major east/west divide.
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jaichind
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« Reply #430 on: June 28, 2020, 02:42:38 PM »

Would be interesting to see map. I assume there is a major east/west divide.

Other than Warsaw I assume the split will be along 1914 borders.
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andjey
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« Reply #431 on: June 28, 2020, 02:54:11 PM »

Hope Trzaskowski wins in second round. It would be good for Ukraine. And Trzaskowski is excellent, in my opinion
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President Johnson
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« Reply #432 on: June 28, 2020, 03:13:03 PM »

Hope Trzaskowski wins in second round. It would be good for Ukraine. And Trzaskowski is excellent, in my opinion

He would be good for the European Union as well, though the PiS is still in government and will remain so at least to 2023.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #433 on: June 28, 2020, 03:45:13 PM »


There will be no results in next hours, so relax. First partial results on Monday (not Monday night but day).


There you have details from exit poll by IPSOS, in Polish
https://tvn24.pl/wybory-prezydenckie-2020/wyniki-sondazowe-pierwsza-tura
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Storr
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« Reply #434 on: June 28, 2020, 03:57:34 PM »


There will be no results in next hours, so relax. First partial results on Monday (not Monday night but day).


There you have details from exit poll by IPSOS, in Polish
https://tvn24.pl/wybory-prezydenckie-2020/wyniki-sondazowe-pierwsza-tura
According to the exit poll map, Trzaskowski is leading in regions that were formerly part of German Silesa (but not Upper Silesia) and Pomerania.
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #435 on: June 28, 2020, 04:03:38 PM »

It's pretty good given Trzaskowski entered very late as a replacement candidate for Kidawa (a complete failure). PiS and Duda made some mistakes during the campaign (including the infamous "LGBT ideology" comments), and this coupled with the government's mishandling of the pandemic (it's a f**king mess) makes them vulnerable.

Of course Duda can still very much win, but a couple of months ago his reelection seemed almost a foregone conclusion, so I'm moderately hopeful.

This was the first time I voted for a PO candidate in the first round. In 2010 I voted for Napieralski and in 2015 I cast a blank ballot*, before voting for Komorowski in the runoff on both occasions. This year my utter contemp for the Pencil Man, combined with the utter failure of Biedroń's campaign, convinced me it'd be better to help Traskowski get stronger position before the next round.

* Technically wrote in Anna Grodzka, but it still counted as invalid
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #436 on: June 28, 2020, 04:07:12 PM »

So a slight sign that the Orbanisation of Poland might not be unstoppable?
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #437 on: June 28, 2020, 04:24:42 PM »

So a slight sign that the Orbanisation of Poland might not be unstoppable?

Well, PiS never had as much power as Orban to begin with. Their majority is a slender and precarious one, as evident when Gowin and his boys killed the idea of mail voting PiS was pushing for in order not to lose their previous momentum when the virus hit (PiS' parliamentary caucus is not technically one party, but a coalition, with the tiny parties, one led by Gowin and the other by Ziobro, sitting together with PiS itself, as they ran on the latter's ticket, but remain more or less distinct formations). And PiS never had such levels of public support as Fidesz.

Plus, they don't control the Senate, which is barely in the opposition's hands. The Senate powers are pretty weak ones. It can't kill the legislations voted by Sejm, only to propose amendments which Sejm can then reject and send their version to the Pencil Man. But it still can delay things and has some exclusive prerogatives, like appointing some members of various governmental institutions or approving the President's proposal to hold a referendum.

I mean, I don't want to sound too confident, but I'm pretty happy with PiS not being able to completely do as they please, like Orban can.
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #438 on: June 28, 2020, 04:46:36 PM »

Would be interesting to see a map. I assume there is a major east/west divide.

Based on the IPSOS exit poll:




From Gazeta.pl
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #439 on: June 28, 2020, 04:49:58 PM »

We have a second round poll (conducted on Friday, the last day before the "electoral silence", so it doesn't take actual results into account):

Trzaskowski: 48,1%
Duda: 45,6%
Undecided: 6,1%

Source.
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #440 on: June 28, 2020, 04:52:19 PM »

Turnout (based on IPSOS exit poll):

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jaichind
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« Reply #441 on: June 28, 2020, 05:01:39 PM »

Kantar poll done right after exit polls has it at

Duda 50.4 Trzaskowski 49.6
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BigSerg
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« Reply #442 on: June 28, 2020, 06:57:49 PM »

We have a second round poll (conducted on Friday, the last day before the "electoral silence", so it doesn't take actual results into account):

Trzaskowski: 48,1%
Duda: 45,6%
Undecided: 6,1%

Source.

He'll win, you shouldn't have too much hope.
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Storr
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« Reply #443 on: June 28, 2020, 09:58:34 PM »

https://fakty.interia.pl/raporty/raport-wybory-prezydenckie-2020/aktualnosci/news-wybory-prezydenckie-2020-kto-wygral-wyniki-late-poll,nId,4580582

The most recent Ipsos exit poll I found has it at:

Andrzej Duda: 42.5 percent

Rafał Trzaskowski: 30.3 percent

Szymon Hołownia:   13.5 percent

Krzysztof Bosak:  7.1 percent

Robert Biedroń: 2.5 percent

Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz: 2.5 percent
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Mr. Illini
liberty142
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« Reply #444 on: June 28, 2020, 10:33:10 PM »

Results and initial second round polls seem encouraging. Would be wonderful if it also represents a larger trend downward for the far right in Europe.
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PSOL
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« Reply #445 on: June 28, 2020, 11:19:05 PM »

So, from the pathetic showing we’ve seen so far, is Biedroń’s career at national politics over?
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #446 on: June 28, 2020, 11:59:10 PM »

Looks good for Trzaskowski. He'll probably gather an overwhelming majority of Hołownia, Biedroń, & Kosiniak voters, which would put him on at least 48%. At the same time, Duda can only count on no more than half of Bosak voters (not much more than Trzaskowski will gather, & maybe even less), & maybe a few Kosiniak voters. This would put him on ~45%.

It seems that late voters (not included in the exit poll) were mostly urban ones, so they helped Duda the least. Duda is also expected to fare below-average in abroad votes, so the difference might end up being smaller in the final official results, but not rather significantly.

Of course, those voters who abstained today but will vote in 2 weeks are a complete mystery. Plus, a lot can happen in these 2 weeks.
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bigic
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« Reply #447 on: June 29, 2020, 04:07:00 AM »


Of course, those voters who abstained today but will vote in 2 weeks are a complete mystery. Plus, a lot can happen in these 2 weeks.
According to exit polls, people over 65 had the lowest turnout. Maybe more of them will vote in the second round?
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jaichind
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« Reply #448 on: June 29, 2020, 04:10:44 AM »

With almost all the votes counted it is

Duda           43.7
Trzaskowski  30.3
Hołownia      13.8
Bosak            6.8

With Duda outperforming exit poll and pre-election polls a bit
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
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« Reply #449 on: June 29, 2020, 04:16:08 AM »

https://wybory.gov.pl/prezydent20200628/pl/wyniki/pl


Almost all results in. Pretty fast, I am surprised.
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