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Author Topic: Polish Politics and Elections  (Read 104429 times)
Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #775 on: January 20, 2023, 01:21:50 PM »

There are still some unknowns, which are kinda crucial:

1) what will be the configuration of oposition electoral lists, as there are still some talks, negotiations etc., if there will be two major lists or separate etc. - and that might be pretty important issue.

Update:

according to the semi-official informations from the PO circles, joint oposition idea is dead.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #776 on: July 14, 2023, 05:54:03 PM »

This thread has been kind of dead but there will be an election this fall, which will be very consequential for Poland's future. It looks like Konfederacja is surging and they will be the kingmakers after the election. My question is: will they actually be willing to make anyone the king? Because neither a PO-Kon nor a PiS-Kon alliance seems particularly likely to me. What happens if they don't make any agreement?
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M0096
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« Reply #777 on: July 14, 2023, 08:09:12 PM »

PO-Konfederacja alliance is almost impossible. Konfederacja is too far-right on social issues and PO abandoned economic paleo-liberalism and became more moderate on economic issues (than 15 years ago).
If PiS didn't have majority, they would try to divide Konfederacja and create coalition with more nationalist wing of that party. Libertarians led by Korwin and Mentzen aren't reliable allies for PiS.
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jaichind
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« Reply #778 on: July 15, 2023, 04:58:30 AM »

Konfederacja  seems to be surging in the polls last couple of months
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #779 on: July 15, 2023, 02:08:17 PM »
« Edited: July 15, 2023, 02:20:52 PM by Que la mentira vuelva »

PO-Konfederacja alliance is almost impossible. Konfederacja is too far-right on social issues and PO abandoned economic paleo-liberalism and became more moderate on economic issues (than 15 years ago).
If PiS didn't have majority, they would try to divide Konfederacja and create coalition with more nationalist wing of that party. Libertarians led by Korwin and Mentzen aren't reliable allies for PiS.
Ideology doesn't matter that much IMHO, you should look at it from their perspective. The people now running Konfederacja are in their 30s-early 40s but can see that, say, Kaczynski is 74 and isn't going anywhere. They've spent their adult lives trying to break into politics, and they can remember what PiS did to Samoobrona and LPR. They can also read the polls that are telling them a lot of their voters are people who see PiS as a nanny-state socialist party that's giving their tax money to poor people and Ukrainians, and that the only time their support really dropped was when they supported the abortion ban.

PiS would be easier to work with in a lot of ways, no question, they have nationalism in common and they'll be desperate to stay in power. But the fact that they'll so obviously try to split them means they're not reliable, and if Konfederacja really do as well as it looks like they could at the moment, neither PO or PiS will be in a strong position to say no to them. Mentzen and Bosak could see the appeal of propping up a PO-PSL-PL2050 minority government for a while, banking the goodwill they'd get from a lot of anti-PiS voters for that, taking credit for some tax cuts or something, and then seeing who wins the presidential election.
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M0096
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« Reply #780 on: July 15, 2023, 02:54:41 PM »

PO-PSL-PL2050 with confidence and supply from Konfederacja will be suicide for "democratic opposition". This government wouldn't pass anything important and would be force to adapt unpopular right-wing economic decisions. If that happend, I would expect snap election in 2 years and subsequent PiS government later.
If Konfederacja decided to cooperate with PO, I expect nonpartisan, temporary government until presidential election in 2025.
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Storr
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« Reply #781 on: July 15, 2023, 03:03:21 PM »

An interesting scenario poll with a united opposition alliance:

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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #782 on: July 15, 2023, 03:58:28 PM »

PO-PSL-PL2050 with confidence and supply from Konfederacja will be suicide for "democratic opposition". This government wouldn't pass anything important and would be force to adapt unpopular right-wing economic decisions.

The only issue in that statement is that taking into consideration PO or PL2050 electorate economic views they are not that much different from the Konfederacja ones. Any sort of policies which would be an effect of Konfederacja-PO talks would not be unpopular per se.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #783 on: July 29, 2023, 06:18:28 PM »

So Polish political scene has entered its traditional pre-election period of transfers, consolidations and other various shenanigans which mainly shows how spineless is Polish political class:

- Konfederacja "stole" from the PiS camp one MP, Anna Siarkowska. Although she was not a member of PiS, and rather satellite party member (in 2022 she joined Ziobro's party, Solidarna Polska) it is still first defection on parliamentary level from PiS to Konfederacja. Some of the most Korwinist sympathizers were very unhappy due to the history of voting for most the the pro-social legislation of current government, but she fits well to the nationalist component of Konfederacja, so dissent wasn't that strong.

- Also, after pretty long hiatus in Polish politics all Konfederacja necromancers, who apparently had something better to do than providing life support to Korwin, were able to summon Przemysław Wipler, former pre-Konfederacja times rising star of the Korwinist right. Mainly known for his legendary photos after drunk fight with the police and some financial frauds, but still symptom of spectacular returns due to the huge popularity of the right.

- Former main PiS satellite party, center-right conservative-liberal Porozumienie, after long road of very exotic alliances (the weirdest being the one with Agrounia, new emanation of anti-establishment rural/farmer party, which had some weird romances with left-wing economists, which are in Poland not that common) ended up in the alliance with PSL
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #784 on: July 31, 2023, 01:11:27 PM »

So Polish political scene has entered its traditional pre-election period of transfers, consolidations and other various shenanigans which mainly shows how spineless is Polish political class:

- Konfederacja "stole" from the PiS camp one MP, Anna Siarkowska. Although she was not a member of PiS, and rather satellite party member (in 2022 she joined Ziobro's party, Solidarna Polska) it is still first defection on parliamentary level from PiS to Konfederacja. Some of the most Korwinist sympathizers were very unhappy due to the history of voting for most the the pro-social legislation of current government, but she fits well to the nationalist component of Konfederacja, so dissent wasn't that strong.

- Also, after pretty long hiatus in Polish politics all Konfederacja necromancers, who apparently had something better to do than providing life support to Korwin, were able to summon Przemysław Wipler, former pre-Konfederacja times rising star of the Korwinist right. Mainly known for his legendary photos after drunk fight with the police and some financial frauds, but still symptom of spectacular returns due to the huge popularity of the right.
They also announced the son of Marian Banaś, the head of the National Audit Office who's been at odds with PiS for years because right after he was elected he turned out to be have ties to organised crime, as a candidate. The son also has tax fraud charges against him, because of course he does.

The narrative everyone's trying to push now is that these people are jumping off the PiS sinking ship and going to Konfederacja, but I think it's actually worse than that. Banaś senior was an LPR candidate in 2005, Siarkowska was a Ruch Narodowy footsoldier, and of course Wipler was supposed to be Korwin's successor until he ruined his own career. All the nationalists and Korwinistas who tried to use PiS as a flag of convenience are going home now that their natural party's doing well.

Quote
- Former main PiS satellite party, center-right conservative-liberal Porozumienie, after long road of very exotic alliances (the weirdest being the one with Agrounia, new emanation of anti-establishment rural/farmer party, which had some weird romances with left-wing economists, which are in Poland not that common) ended up in the alliance with PSL
And now PSL are trying to form an alliance with Agrounia as well, and PL2050 are threatening to end the whole Third Way coalition over it.

I just don't get Kosiniak-Kamysz, like, as an entity. I don't think there's ever been a Polish party leader who was so in thrall to journalists. He let them convince him he was presidential material and run his whole campaign for him, and it got him 2%. He keeps bringing irrelevant 'intellectual' conservatives who have no constituency but are liked by the media onto PSL's lists. Agrounia have no support but they generate good clickbait so the media loves them? Bring them on too! Third Way is polling in double digits but the journalists are bored of it already? Guess we'd better break it up then!
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #785 on: July 31, 2023, 02:53:06 PM »

The narrative everyone's trying to push now is that these people are jumping off the PiS sinking ship and going to Konfederacja, but I think it's actually worse than that. Banaś senior was an LPR candidate in 2005, Siarkowska was a Ruch Narodowy footsoldier, and of course Wipler was supposed to be Korwin's successor until he ruined his own career. All the nationalists and Korwinistas who tried to use PiS as a flag of convenience are going home now that their natural party's doing well.

This is an actually important take - people in Poland are often forgetting that up until the great duopol era (PiS-PO rivalry), that more nationalistic, right wing component of Polish political scene was always there. ZChN, LPR and dozens of different parties, organizations etc. - always got noticeable following and support. PiS in the aftermath of their first govt and PO electoral victory in 2007 was able to basically siphon out any sort of other political right-wing movements electoral and political potential outside PiS (and Korwinism, which back then as an oddity) - they got the electorate, but also they've got most of the activists, local politicians etc. Now with Konfederacja strong poll results some of those people just trying to get more comfortable position.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #786 on: August 08, 2023, 10:33:19 AM »

The president has called the election for October 15. Let's go.

At literally the same time as that announcement was being made, PM Morawiecki sacked the minister of health, Adam Niedzielski, for leaking information about what sort of medicine a doctor who had criticised him had prescribed for himself. Patryk Jaki, MEP for PiS' coalition partner Sovereign Poland and raging asshole, celebrated on Twitter (!).



When your campaign is going well...
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #787 on: August 09, 2023, 07:46:59 AM »

Just to note as non-Polish forum members might find it funny:


PM Morawiecki just invited Manfred Weber to the debate before Polish elections, as the narrative is that he is the boss of Tusk and Morawiecki do not want to debate the "intermediaries". Weber rejected the invitation.
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crals
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« Reply #788 on: August 09, 2023, 04:48:58 PM »

But isn't Morawiecki himself just an intermediate for Kaczynski?
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
Heat
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« Reply #789 on: August 09, 2023, 05:13:54 PM »

But isn't Morawiecki himself just an intermediate for Kaczynski?
Yes! It's amazing, isn't it?

But then, we had a PiS minister claim today that women shouldn't vote Konfederacja because they're for a complete abortion ban, so I guess the plan is to just lie, constantly, about anything and everything.
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Storr
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« Reply #790 on: August 09, 2023, 05:18:02 PM »

Just to note as non-Polish forum members might find it funny:


PM Morawiecki just invited Manfred Weber to the debate before Polish elections, as the narrative is that he is the boss of Tusk and Morawiecki do not want to debate the "intermediaries". Weber rejected the invitation.

I was thinking Tusk could have responded by inviting the chair of European Conservatives and Reformists Party. But then I looked it up, and found out a PiS member is one of the ECR co-chairs.
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Storr
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« Reply #791 on: August 09, 2023, 05:31:15 PM »
« Edited: August 09, 2023, 05:40:26 PM by Storr »

There's probably personal disputes between party leaders preventing this idea. But with how close Third Way has been flirting with missing the 8% seat threshold for alliances in recent polls, would they ever consider an alliance with Tusk?

I'm assuming they wouldn't, with Tusk being such a divisive (at best) figure.


Edit: I just remembered Polish Coalition barely reached the threshold in 2019 with 8.55%. Good luck this time, lol.

Here's a better question. Who even is Polish Coalition/Third Way's constituency? People that would otherwise support Civic Coalition but don't like Tusk?
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #792 on: August 09, 2023, 05:36:54 PM »

There's probably personal disputes between party leaders preventing this idea. But with how close Third Way has been flirting with missing the 8% seat threshold for alliances in recent polls, would they ever consider an alliance with Tusk?

I'm assuming they wouldn't, with Tusk being such a divisive (at best) figure.

Edit: I just remembered Polish Coalition barely reached the threshold in 2019 with 8.55%. Good luck losers. lol
Too late now anyway, PO has already filed its paperwork to run. Third Way said they were going to do it today but didn't, for whatever reason.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
Heat
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« Reply #793 on: August 09, 2023, 05:40:46 PM »

Personally, at this point I think they'll be fine - PSL have their local machines all over the place and Hołownia still has fans - but nothing more than 'fine'.
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MRCVzla
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« Reply #794 on: August 09, 2023, 11:13:25 PM »

Edit: I just remembered Polish Coalition barely reached the threshold in 2019 with 8.55%. Good luck this time, lol.

Actually, the Polish Coalition ran under the PSL party committee in case their result was below the 8% coalition threshold (Lewica did the same under the SLD symbol to avoid what happened to them in 2015), only KO (Civic Coalition) ran under a coalition committee in 2019. Just to clarify.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #795 on: August 10, 2023, 06:27:57 PM »

Here's a better question. Who even is Polish Coalition/Third Way's constituency? People that would otherwise support Civic Coalition but don't like Tusk?


Well, there are to be honest two separate bases - one, really well rooted as Heat already wrote with dozens of smaller, local political machines based around local government politicians, firefighters (important rural institution), some people who are members of all those farmers organizations. PSL is also still the biggest political party in terms of members, since probably 00s dwarfing all political parties (as for now something ca. 85k members, just for comparison PO has something close to 25k).

Hołownia base is pretty fresh and volatile, mainly based on the popularity of Hołownia, some sort of centrist sentiment both against PiS, and to lesser extend also against the POPiS eternal struggle. Rather centrist, I would say younger part of middle-aged electorate from smaller towns and suburbs (of the Western Poland) is the core of Hołownia electorate. Although he is is pretty strongly connected to the Catholicism and generally associated with that (well, mainly with the fact that he was a host in the Polish version of Got Talent) I noticed that his electorate is usually not really that religious.  

There are also some other, minor components like those few conservative liberals, who pretty much always had been torn between PiS and PO, not able to find place for themselves (part of the so called "AWS orphans") but no one but media (they got some recognizable professional politicians) really cares about them.  
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MaxQue
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« Reply #796 on: August 11, 2023, 05:04:06 PM »

So, who is Tadeusz Rydzyk?

There is allegations in Canadian news the Polish government is spying on Canadian citizens (including a former deputy Premier of Alberta) from Polish origin criticizng him.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #797 on: August 11, 2023, 05:53:33 PM »

So, who is Tadeusz Rydzyk?

There is allegations in Canadian news the Polish government is spying on Canadian citizens (including a former deputy Premier of Alberta) from Polish origin criticizng him.

LOL Jesus what

Tadeusz Rydzyk probably is no longer as influential as he used to be, but basically he is National Catholic media mogul priest (think of a variant of Charles Coughlin) with his own businesses, schools, radio, TV etc. due to whose support PiS is basically unbeatable in that 5-10% of devout elderly Catholic part of society. I think there are Wikipedia articles and a lot of media coverage about Tadeusz Rydzyk and his Radio Maryja. He is basically a symbol for: a) involvement of clergy into politics b) involvement of clergy into worldly matters, like sh**tloads of money.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #798 on: August 11, 2023, 08:58:36 PM »

So, who is Tadeusz Rydzyk?

There is allegations in Canadian news the Polish government is spying on Canadian citizens (including a former deputy Premier of Alberta) from Polish origin criticizng him.

LOL Jesus what

Tadeusz Rydzyk probably is no longer as influential as he used to be, but basically he is National Catholic media mogul priest (think of a variant of Charles Coughlin) with his own businesses, schools, radio, TV etc. due to whose support PiS is basically unbeatable in that 5-10% of devout elderly Catholic part of society. I think there are Wikipedia articles and a lot of media coverage about Tadeusz Rydzyk and his Radio Maryja. He is basically a symbol for: a) involvement of clergy into politics b) involvement of clergy into worldly matters, like sh**tloads of money.

Our news said the subject was slightly touched in a meeting of the Sejm, when the opposition also alleged PiS fired the consul in Vancouver because he refused to take part in such activities.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/lukaszuk-poland-surveillance-1.6933104
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Storr
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« Reply #799 on: August 22, 2023, 02:38:04 PM »

"The leader of the Civic Coalition, Donald Tusk, announced a joint start in the autumn parliamentary elections with AgroUnia."

https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art38955421-agrounia-wspolnie-z-ko-w-wyborach-do-sejmu

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