Polish Politics and Elections

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I don't see why this is any more likely to succeed than Kwaśniewski, Wałęsa, or Miller's comebacks, all of which were of course disasters.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The SLD is having a good old-fashioned civil war, as a lot of the deadwood in the party is now up in arms against Czarzasty's attempts to steer a course vaguely independent of PO and his plan to merge them with Wiosna on equal terms to create the 'New Left', which they (probably correctly) fear he'd be able to completely control. Now Czarzasty is suspending people left and right.

I take all the bad things I've ever said about him back, this is amazing and based, we stan our Włodek.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The SLD is having a good old-fashioned civil war, as a lot of the deadwood in the party is now up in arms against Czarzasty's attempts to steer a course vaguely independent of PO and his plan to merge them with Wiosna on equal terms to create the 'New Left', which they (probably correctly) fear he'd be able to completely control. Now Czarzasty is suspending people left and right.

I take all the bad things I've ever said about him back, this is amazing and based, we stan our Włodek.

I don't really wish PO well but if you are, you better hope Tusk is taking notes (he isn't). They still might not be able to beat PiS with the likes of Neumann, Leszczyna, Kierwiński, Kidawa-Błońska, Grabiec or Nitras as their leading figures, but they definitely won't beat them with them on board.

[bigic]

The PM has dismissed Gowin (one of the ministers), which means that Gowin's party (Porozumienie, or Agreement in English) goes into opposition and the government probably loses its majority in the parliament.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Hołownia announced there'd be a 'special guest' at the Polska 2050 congress and then spent weeks implying it'd be Barack or Michelle Obama to get journalists to pay attention. The congress was today, and he... unveiled an app that lets party members vote on what the manifesto should be.

Not sure if I'm appalled or sort of impressed.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The interior minister held a press conference yesterday to justify the imposition of a state of emergency by the border with Belarus, where he made various lurid claims about refugees they'd supposedly caught at the border. One of the things he showed at the conference was...

hold on, I can get through this sentence

...

An actual honest-to-god picture of a man with his face blurred... doing things with a cow, supposedly found on an SD card supposedly lost in the woods by one refugee. I have to be clear that this was aired live on TV. You can imagine what government propaganda made of this.

Inevitably, this claim attracted some scepticism. One pro-opposition media outlet looked into it, leading to this incredible sentence being published:

OKO.press was contacted by a reader who managed to find the source of the zoophilic material shown at the conference by searching for specific terms. It turns out to be an old recording, and what's more, it's not a cow, but a mare.

Because sure, why not.

[afleitch]

The 'make the whole of Poland an LGBT free zone' bill is currently being debated. Whether it passes or fails it's an excuse for sh-ts I wouldn't let anywhere near children argue that gays shouldn't be let anywhere near children.

[PSOL]

Apparently there has been four defections in the Sejm to the Socialist Party, who now have 5-6 MPs and have left Levica. Any idea on why and who these four MPs are? Anyone else leave the coalition?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Apparently there has been four defections in the Sejm to the Socialist Party, who now have 5-6 MPs and have left Levica. Any idea on why and who these four MPs are? Anyone else leave the coalition?

They have quit, ostensibly in protest of Lewica 'collaborating with PiS' (read: saving the opposition from completely fycking embarrassing itself on one particular occasion), in reality because Tusk's electoral strategy for the last 18 years has hinged on marginalising the left and you can't teach an old dog new tricks, so a split needed to be manufactured. I understand the actual PPS grassroots* are not happy about being used in this way.

*note: there are about 50 of these people, and AFAICT none of them do anything but Post

[PSOL]

Apparently there has been four defections in the Sejm to the Socialist Party, who now have 5-6 MPs and have left Levica. Any idea on why and who these four MPs are? Anyone else leave the coalition?

They have quit, ostensibly in protest of Lewica 'collaborating with PiS' (read: saving the opposition from completely fycking embarrassing itself on one particular occasion), in reality because Tusk's electoral strategy for the last 18 years has hinged on marginalising the left and you can't teach an old dog new tricks, so a split needed to be manufactured. I understand the actual PPS grassroots* are not happy about being used in this way.

*note: there are about 50 of these people, and AFAICT none of them do anything but Post

So who were these MPs

[M0096]

Senate:
Gabriela Stanecka-Morawska - deputy marshall of Senate, represents swing district (75) in Upper Silesia (cities Mysłowice, Tychy and Bieruń-Lędziny County)

Sejm:
Robert Kwiatkowski - former president of TVP (polish state television), member of National Media Counsil, represents eastern part of Kujavia-Pomerania.
Joanna Senyszyn - former MEP, controversial, anti-clerical member of Sejm, represents Gdynia and western part of Pomerania.
Andrzej Rozenek - former ally of Janusz Palikot, member of Sejm who represents Warsaw II district (counties surrounding Warsaw).

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Senate:
Gabriela Stanecka-Morawska - deputy marshall of Senate, represents swing district (75) in Upper Silesia (cities Mysłowice, Tychy and Bieruń-Lędziny County)
R
Sejm:
Robert Kwiatkowski - former president of TVP (polish state television), member of National Media Counsil, represents eastern part of Kujavia-Pomerania.
Joanna Senyszyn - former MEP, controversial, anti-clerical member of Sejm, represents Gdynia and western part of Pomerania.
Andrzej Rozenek - former ally of Janusz Palikot, member of Sejm who represents Warsaw II district (counties surrounding Warsaw).

Rozenek is best known these days for standing up for the interests of retired communist-era policemen and soldiers who had their pensions cut by PiS, even those who had passed vetting in the 90s. This is his actual value to any party that might have him (well, that and being able to say just about anything with a straight face).

You also forgot Wojciech Konieczny, senator for district 69 (Częstochowa city) and leader of the PPS. He is SLD in all but name and holds that seat because of his ties to the SLD machine that runs Częstochowa, he used to run the local hospital. I understand the nurses there were not big fans of him.

[PSOL]

Senate:
Gabriela Stanecka-Morawska - deputy marshall of Senate, represents swing district (75) in Upper Silesia (cities Mysłowice, Tychy and Bieruń-Lędziny County)
R
Sejm:
Robert Kwiatkowski - former president of TVP (polish state television), member of National Media Counsil, represents eastern part of Kujavia-Pomerania.
Joanna Senyszyn - former MEP, controversial, anti-clerical member of Sejm, represents Gdynia and western part of Pomerania.
Andrzej Rozenek - former ally of Janusz Palikot, member of Sejm who represents Warsaw II district (counties surrounding Warsaw).

Rozenek is best known these days for standing up for the interests of retired communist-era policemen and soldiers who had their pensions cut by PiS, even those who had passed vetting in the 90s. This is his actual value to any party that might have him (well, that and being able to say just about anything with a straight face).

You also forgot Wojciech Konieczny, senator for district 69 (Częstochowa city) and leader of the PPS. He is SLD in all but name and holds that seat because of his ties to the SLD machine that runs Częstochowa, he used to run the local hospital. I understand the nurses there were not big fans of him.

Huh, well that is a pretty strong list of defections. Are they all from SLD/Wiosna and Palikot? Who are the Communists supporting; have they stopped tactically supporting Levica? Why exactly are Razem still in the coalition?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Senate:
Gabriela Stanecka-Morawska - deputy marshall of Senate, represents swing district (75) in Upper Silesia (cities Mysłowice, Tychy and Bieruń-Lędziny County)
R
Sejm:
Robert Kwiatkowski - former president of TVP (polish state television), member of National Media Counsil, represents eastern part of Kujavia-Pomerania.
Joanna Senyszyn - former MEP, controversial, anti-clerical member of Sejm, represents Gdynia and western part of Pomerania.
Andrzej Rozenek - former ally of Janusz Palikot, member of Sejm who represents Warsaw II district (counties surrounding Warsaw).

Rozenek is best known these days for standing up for the interests of retired communist-era policemen and soldiers who had their pensions cut by PiS, even those who had passed vetting in the 90s. This is his actual value to any party that might have him (well, that and being able to say just about anything with a straight face).

You also forgot Wojciech Konieczny, senator for district 69 (Częstochowa city) and leader of the PPS. He is SLD in all but name and holds that seat because of his ties to the SLD machine that runs Częstochowa, he used to run the local hospital. I understand the nurses there were not big fans of him.

Huh, well that is a pretty strong list of defections. Are they all from SLD/Wiosna and Palikot? Who are the Communists supporting; have they stopped tactically supporting Levica? Why exactly are Razem still in the coalition?

Rozenek is ex-Palikot turned SLD, Stanecka-Morawska is Wiosna, all the others are SLD.

I don't know what the Communists are doing because they usually don't do anything and there is absolutely no reason to care about them.

Why would Razem leave? They like having political influence. This is a splinter of people who think Czarzasty is indulging them too much.

I really can't emphasise this enough, this is, if anything, the right wing of Lewica splitting off. Rozenek has previously claimed to be a Korwin-Mikke style libertarian. Whatever radical possibilities you seem to see here are all in your head. Politics is not just about brave third-worldist radicals taking on The Establishment or whatever.

[PSOL]

Senate:
Gabriela Stanecka-Morawska - deputy marshall of Senate, represents swing district (75) in Upper Silesia (cities Mysłowice, Tychy and Bieruń-Lędziny County)
R
Sejm:
Robert Kwiatkowski - former president of TVP (polish state television), member of National Media Counsil, represents eastern part of Kujavia-Pomerania.
Joanna Senyszyn - former MEP, controversial, anti-clerical member of Sejm, represents Gdynia and western part of Pomerania.
Andrzej Rozenek - former ally of Janusz Palikot, member of Sejm who represents Warsaw II district (counties surrounding Warsaw).

Rozenek is best known these days for standing up for the interests of retired communist-era policemen and soldiers who had their pensions cut by PiS, even those who had passed vetting in the 90s. This is his actual value to any party that might have him (well, that and being able to say just about anything with a straight face).

You also forgot Wojciech Konieczny, senator for district 69 (Częstochowa city) and leader of the PPS. He is SLD in all but name and holds that seat because of his ties to the SLD machine that runs Częstochowa, he used to run the local hospital. I understand the nurses there were not big fans of him.

Huh, well that is a pretty strong list of defections. Are they all from SLD/Wiosna and Palikot? Who are the Communists supporting; have they stopped tactically supporting Levica? Why exactly are Razem still in the coalition?

Rozenek is ex-Palikot turned SLD, Stanecka-Morawska is Wiosna, all the others are SLD.

I don't know what the Communists are doing because they usually don't do anything and there is absolutely no reason to care about them.

Why would Razem leave? They like having political influence. This is a splinter of people who think Czarzasty is indulging them too much.

I really can't emphasise this enough, this is, if anything, the right wing of Lewica splitting off. Rozenek has previously claimed to be a Korwin-Mikke style libertarian. Whatever radical possibilities you seem to see here are all in your head. Politics is not just about brave third-worldist radicals taking on The Establishment or whatever.

I have not said much for a lot of this but whatevs.

Can you explain what you mean by “indulging in them too much”? Was the split due to Razem receiving more favorable terms than PSP? I understand that you feel it is irrelevant, but may you please find out what the PCP is doing, they may be irrelevant but it’s more about archival purposes to find this information and figure out the general mood of left wing Polish voters.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Apparently there has been four defections in the Sejm to the Socialist Party, who now have 5-6 MPs and have left Levica. Any idea on why and who these four MPs are? Anyone else leave the coalition?

They have quit, ostensibly in protest of Lewica 'collaborating with PiS' (read: saving the opposition from completely fycking embarrassing itself on one particular occasion), in reality because Tusk's electoral strategy for the last 18 years has hinged on marginalising the left and you can't teach an old dog new tricks, so a split needed to be manufactured. I understand the actual PPS grassroots* are not happy about being used in this way.

*note: there are about 50 of these people, and AFAICT none of them do anything but Post

As a PPS member, I can assure you that any activity "on the streets" of the PPS in previous few years, was done by the people who are against bringing new MPs (by the way against party rules and democratic procedures, what is funny taking into consideration that Rozenek and Senyszyn are talking about lack of democracy inside SLD) to the party.

[M0096]

Marshall (Governor) of Upper Silesia and 4 legislators left PiS and created new group, which caucused with opposition. It's 2nd flip of that voivodeship during this term and opposition controls now majority of voivodeship governments.

Upper Silesia is bellwether of polish politics so it's bad sign for PiS a year before parliamentary election.

I think next flip will be Lower Silesia, where legislature is evenly divided.

[DavidB.]

What are the chances of some sort of KO/PL2050 coalition ousting PiS in the elections this year? What would the government look like, in that case?

[Sir Mohamed]

What are the chances of some sort of KO/PL2050 coalition ousting PiS in the elections this year? What would the government look like, in that case?

Isn't the most likely outcome that the PiS govt just gets reelected again? Could be some Hungary 2022 redux?

[DavidB.]

What are the chances of some sort of KO/PL2050 coalition ousting PiS in the elections this year? What would the government look like, in that case?

Isn't the most likely outcome that the PiS govt just gets reelected again? Could be some Hungary 2022 redux?

Would like to hear from a Polish native, but my impression is certainly that PiS' hold on the government is much weaker and that PiS is much more likely to lose its majority. The electoral system doesn't seem to favor PiS as much as it does Fidesz, for one. In general, PiS seems to have to deal with a lot more factions internally, and its majority is a lot more slim to begin with.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

There are still some unknowns, which are kinda crucial:

1) what will be the configuration of oposition electoral lists, as there are still some talks, negotiations etc., if there will be two major lists or separate etc. - and that might be pretty important issue.

2) there are obviously internal factions, but without PiS they are unable to be succesful, they do not have much money, structures etc. - and without them PiS might loose that crucial 1-2% of votes, so they are kind of in constant state of playing chicken. I am kinda sure that Kaczyński will not repeat his mistake with genereous list composition from previous elections, where satelites got relatively a lot of good spots, but the question is how much he can cut them out.

3) we are still before the real electoral campaign and PiS still have some time - and they will work hard to once again assert their narratives as the dominant ones, their ideas as the discussed once etc.


As for now I am not really sure if PiS will win or lose tbh. Too early to call.

[locked_out]

There are still some unknowns, which are kinda crucial:

1) what will be the configuration of oposition electoral lists, as there are still some talks, negotiations etc., if there will be two major lists or separate etc. - and that might be pretty important issue.

2) there are obviously internal factions, but without PiS they are unable to be succesful, they do not have much money, structures etc. - and without them PiS might loose that crucial 1-2% of votes, so they are kind of in constant state of playing chicken. I am kinda sure that Kaczyński will not repeat his mistake with genereous list composition from previous elections, where satelites got relatively a lot of good spots, but the question is how much he can cut them out.

3) we are still before the real electoral campaign and PiS still have some time - and they will work hard to once again assert their narratives as the dominant ones, their ideas as the discussed once etc.


As for now I am not really sure if PiS will win or lose tbh. Too early to call.

What is the degree of closeness between PiS and Kon? Would they form a government together if PiS falls short of a majority? Is there a possibility of a joint list?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

There are still some unknowns, which are kinda crucial:

1) what will be the configuration of oposition electoral lists, as there are still some talks, negotiations etc., if there will be two major lists or separate etc. - and that might be pretty important issue.

2) there are obviously internal factions, but without PiS they are unable to be succesful, they do not have much money, structures etc. - and without them PiS might loose that crucial 1-2% of votes, so they are kind of in constant state of playing chicken. I am kinda sure that Kaczyński will not repeat his mistake with genereous list composition from previous elections, where satelites got relatively a lot of good spots, but the question is how much he can cut them out.

3) we are still before the real electoral campaign and PiS still have some time - and they will work hard to once again assert their narratives as the dominant ones, their ideas as the discussed once etc.


As for now I am not really sure if PiS will win or lose tbh. Too early to call.

What is the degree of closeness between PiS and Kon? Would they form a government together if PiS falls short of a majority? Is there a possibility of a joint list?

"Is there a possibility of a joint list?"

As for now zero chances.

"Would they form a government together if PiS falls short of a majority?"

To be honest I am not quite sure, as Konfederacja is still a bunch of nutcases even from the point of view of ordinary PiS voters, especially because of their, now a little bit hidden, Russophilia. This might be damaging even for PiS, although we are talking about a scenario where PiS is struggling to keep power, so they might try to "buy" few Konfederacja MPs. Still, coalition with PSL would be probably preferable (though not that possible).

"What is the degree of closeness between PiS and Kon?"

Small. Other thing is that Konfederacja is very fragmented alliance and when we are talking about some sort of ideological affinity there are some groups which are closer to PiS, and some which are hostile to the PiS (especially when we are talking about economic issues). Some nationalist groups around Konfederacja are close to the PiS, also on the political level. But I would not say that they are the most important group inside Konfederacja.

[locked_out]

There are still some unknowns, which are kinda crucial:

1) what will be the configuration of oposition electoral lists, as there are still some talks, negotiations etc., if there will be two major lists or separate etc. - and that might be pretty important issue.

2) there are obviously internal factions, but without PiS they are unable to be succesful, they do not have much money, structures etc. - and without them PiS might loose that crucial 1-2% of votes, so they are kind of in constant state of playing chicken. I am kinda sure that Kaczyński will not repeat his mistake with genereous list composition from previous elections, where satelites got relatively a lot of good spots, but the question is how much he can cut them out.

3) we are still before the real electoral campaign and PiS still have some time - and they will work hard to once again assert their narratives as the dominant ones, their ideas as the discussed once etc.


As for now I am not really sure if PiS will win or lose tbh. Too early to call.

What is the degree of closeness between PiS and Kon? Would they form a government together if PiS falls short of a majority? Is there a possibility of a joint list?

"Is there a possibility of a joint list?"

As for now zero chances.

"Would they form a government together if PiS falls short of a majority?"

To be honest I am not quite sure, as Konfederacja is still a bunch of nutcases even from the point of view of ordinary PiS voters, especially because of their, now a little bit hidden, Russophilia. This might be damaging even for PiS, although we are talking about a scenario where PiS is struggling to keep power, so they might try to "buy" few Konfederacja MPs. Still, coalition with PSL would be probably preferable (though not that possible).

"What is the degree of closeness between PiS and Kon?"

Small. Other thing is that Konfederacja is very fragmented alliance and when we are talking about some sort of ideological affinity there are some groups which are closer to PiS, and some which are hostile to the PiS (especially when we are talking about economic issues). Some nationalist groups around Konfederacja are close to the PiS, also on the political level. But I would not say that they are the most important group inside Konfederacja.

Very helpful, thank you! Do you think the most likely option (other than PiS majority) is some coalition between (potentially a subset of) KO-Left-PSL-Poland 2050? Or are the differences within those too large to be bridged?
Also, do you foresee any future government substantially changing the government's stance with regards to Ukrainians seeking refuge in Poland?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Also, do you foresee any future government substantially changing the government's stance with regards to Ukrainians seeking refuge in Poland?

As for now not really - winter up to this moment have been much milder than expected, and there is no new refugee wave so any sentiments against refugees are not really that vocal as situation is stable and people are kinda getting used to it. Polish society is staunchly pro-Ukrainian and most of the Polish political parties also do not really feel to do anything against Ukrainians, Ukraine etc.

Although situation might somehow change after the war - so as for now we do not know when.

Do you think the most likely option (other than PiS majority) is some coalition between (potentially a subset of) KO-Left-PSL-Poland 2050? Or are the differences within those too large to be bridged?

Hunger for power in the PO, PSL circles is pretty strong, similarly in the Left coalition (especially if we are talking about NL, not the Razem party). Poland 2050 is already past its best moment, and for them co-creating any cabinet is the biggest risk, but still it is hard to imagine them becoming oposition party against minority PO-PSL-Left govt. There are multiple reasons, but in my opinion all of them are less relevant than chance to govern Poland after such long break (especially for the PO).