Polish Politics and Elections

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

https://twitter.com/ChrisLashHist/status/1362359880686964736

[Estrella]

https://twitter.com/ChrisLashHist/status/1362359880686964736

Was the fighting mostly about muh electability or are there significant socially conservative groups within the party?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

https://twitter.com/ChrisLashHist/status/1362359880686964736

Was the fighting mostly about muh electability or are there significant socially conservative groups within the party?

The latter, sometimes masquerading as the former.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well that's modestly encouraging. Poland may yet avoid fully going the way of Hungary.

[Cassius]

Well that's modestly encouraging. Poland may yet avoid fully going the way of Hungary.

Hungary’s abortion laws are (broadly) in line with those of many of the more restrictive (Italy, Ireland etc) Western European countries, and although there has been plenty of ‘pro-natalist’ rhetoric from Fidesz, they’ve not done anything to restrict abortion that is comparable to the efforts of PiS on this issue. So maybe you should actually be worrying about Hungary going the way of Poland!

[PSOL]

Why did the Razem female chairman leave the party?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Well that's modestly encouraging. Poland may yet avoid fully going the way of Hungary.

I don't think there's much of a connection one way or the other there. The goal is to stop Hołownia and the Left being able to take votes from PO.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Why did the Razem female chairman leave the party?

There is no such position and there haven't been any high-profile departures since 2019, what do you mean?

[PSOL]

Why did the Razem female chairman leave the party?

There is no such position and there haven't been any high-profile departures since 2019, what do you mean?

I meant Agnieszka Ewa Dziemianowicz-Bąk

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Why did the Razem female chairman leave the party?

There is no such position and there haven't been any high-profile departures since 2019, what do you mean?

I meant Agnieszka Ewa Dziemianowicz-Bąk

Yes, that was in 2019. She left because she was much more enthusiastic about a Wiosna-Razem alliance for the European Parliament elections than most of the party (largely because it would have allowed her to become an MEP).

I would not describe her as a great loss to Razem, but I think I am one of about eight people on the Polish left who would say so, many activists seem to see her as a basically Messianic figure these days.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well that's modestly encouraging. Poland may yet avoid fully going the way of Hungary.

Hungary’s abortion laws are (broadly) in line with those of many of the more restrictive (Italy, Ireland etc) Western European countries, and although there has been plenty of ‘pro-natalist’ rhetoric from Fidesz, they’ve not done anything to restrict abortion that is comparable to the efforts of PiS on this issue. So maybe you should actually be worrying about Hungary going the way of Poland!

I meant this in a more general sense, sorry for not expressing things better. The point about this news is that it is further evidence that Poland retains a vigorous and healthy civil society. Whereas alas in Hungary, this appears as beat down and subservient as most other things under Orban.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Why did the Razem female chairman leave the party?

There is no such position and there haven't been any high-profile departures since 2019, what do you mean?

I meant Agnieszka Ewa Dziemianowicz-Bąk

Yes, that was in 2019. She left because she was much more enthusiastic about a Wiosna-Razem alliance for the European Parliament elections than most of the party (largely because it would have allowed her to become an MEP).

I would not describe her as a great loss to Razem, but I think I am one of about eight people on the Polish left who would say so, many activists seem to see her as a basically Messianic figure these days.

Me neither, that's nine.

[njwes]

https://twitter.com/ChrisLashHist/status/1362359880686964736

Was the fighting mostly about muh electability or are there significant socially conservative groups within the party?

The latter, sometimes masquerading as the former.

That's interesting--so there is a contingent in the PO who is actually rather conservative, but who try and mask that fact by using electability arguments?

E.g.: "I SWEAR I'd love to make all abortion legal, but SADLY you know our people, the Poles are just SOOOO retrograde and will never accept us if we admit that!"

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

https://twitter.com/ChrisLashHist/status/1362359880686964736

Was the fighting mostly about muh electability or are there significant socially conservative groups within the party?

The latter, sometimes masquerading as the former.

That's interesting--so there is a contingent in the PO who is actually rather conservative, but who try and mask that fact by using electability arguments?

E.g.: "I SWEAR I'd love to make all abortion legal, but SADLY you know our people, the Poles are just SOOOO retrograde and will never accept us if we admit that!"

They're not subtle enough to claim the first bit. The argument often goes that Poland is such a conservative society that anyone more socially liberal than themselves saying anything will scare voters back to PiS - not that they've ever proved any good at keeping those voters from going to PiS in the first place, of course.

[Flyersfan232]

Finally, Poland has a new government.

- Kaczynski joins as Deputy Prime Minister in charge of 'national security', i.e. overseeing the Defence, Interior and Justice Ministers and settling disputes in the government.
- Jaroslaw Gowin returns as Minister of Development, Technology and Labour - Labour being split off from Family and Social Policy specifically so it can be given to Gowin, Thatcherite bastard he is. Oh joy.
- The Ministry of Education is merged with the Ministry of Science and Higher Education and is given to noted homophobic moron who became a university professor through blatant nepotism, Przemyslaw Czarnek.
- The Ministry of Agriculture goes to Grzegorz 'who?' Puda, who was apparently the government's point man on the animal rights reform.
- The Climate and Environment Ministries are merged (why the hell were they ever separate) under current Climate Minister Michal Kurtyka.
- The Ministry of Sport is merged with the Ministry of Culture under current Culture Minister and Deputy PM Piotr Glinski.

https://twitter.com/TerryReintke/status/1311232324844085248?s=19
I’m awaiting the complete collapse of Lewica.

As usual, you know nothing. Spurek was against the whole Lewica project from the start and quit Wiosna two weeks after the 2019 election for that reason. What she does has no bearing on Lewica, and even if it did she wouldn't be any great loss anyway.

why do Kaczynski not be prime minister do he prefer party leadership role more?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Finally, Poland has a new government.

- Kaczynski joins as Deputy Prime Minister in charge of 'national security', i.e. overseeing the Defence, Interior and Justice Ministers and settling disputes in the government.
- Jaroslaw Gowin returns as Minister of Development, Technology and Labour - Labour being split off from Family and Social Policy specifically so it can be given to Gowin, Thatcherite bastard he is. Oh joy.
- The Ministry of Education is merged with the Ministry of Science and Higher Education and is given to noted homophobic moron who became a university professor through blatant nepotism, Przemyslaw Czarnek.
- The Ministry of Agriculture goes to Grzegorz 'who?' Puda, who was apparently the government's point man on the animal rights reform.
- The Climate and Environment Ministries are merged (why the hell were they ever separate) under current Climate Minister Michal Kurtyka.
- The Ministry of Sport is merged with the Ministry of Culture under current Culture Minister and Deputy PM Piotr Glinski.

https://twitter.com/TerryReintke/status/1311232324844085248?s=19
I’m awaiting the complete collapse of Lewica.

As usual, you know nothing. Spurek was against the whole Lewica project from the start and quit Wiosna two weeks after the 2019 election for that reason. What she does has no bearing on Lewica, and even if it did she wouldn't be any great loss anyway.

why do Kaczynski not be prime minister do he prefer party leadership role more?

Because he is not getting younger and it is easier to keep political power without any real responsibility for governing the country.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The mayoral by-election in the south-eastern city of Rzeszów, caused by the resignation of SLD genepool (expelled from the party for trying to ban a Pride parade in 2019) mayor and insane workaholic (among other things, he's 81 and presumably would have hung on as long as he could if he hadn't caught covid) Tadeusz Ferenc, who'd been in post since 2002, is apparently to be delayed until the 13th of June due to 'uncertainty' on whether covid cases will continue to fall. The election is seen as a test for the government because the Ziobro (hardcore Orbánista, willing to flirt with leaving the EU) tendency is running its own candidate. Coincidentally, a poll was just released today.

Konrad Fijołek (councillor for Ferenc's Development of Rzeszów local party, boring apparatchik endorsed by most of the opposition parties): 41.9%
Ewa Leniart (PiS governor of Podkarpackie Voivodeship, official PiS candidate): 24%
Marcin Warchoł (Ziobro tendency candidate, inexplicably endorsed by Ferenc, used to work for Palikot's Movement before seeing which way the wind was blowing): 16.6%
Grzegorz Braun (Konfederacja candidate, insane monarchist and plandemic guy): 11.2%
Undecided: 6.4%

As you can see, things are going great.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Lewica have made a deal with PiS to help vote through the ratification of the EU recovery fund (which was under threat due to Ziobro and co. opposing it for the usual reasons) in exchange for the government building 75,000 units of social housing, 30% of the funds to be allocated to local government to be spent as they wish, 850 million euro to be allocated to local hospitals so they can pay down their debts and 300 million to financial support for the hospitality industry due to lockdowns. I think Poland 2050/Hołownia is also backing the ratification. PO, which was committed to opposing it if Konfederacja and Gowin's loyalists couldn't be coaxed into an anti-PiS coalition (LMFAO), is naturally apoplectic and screaming about treason. Meanwhile, the polling looks like this:

https://twitter.com/JacekGadek/status/1387132518068068360

(the question is 'How should the opposition vote regarding the recovery fund?' and the options are 'with PiS', 'against PiS', 'abstain', and 'no opinion'. Yes, that's 66-3 in favour of ratification, apparently)

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

For some reason we're discussing Donald Tusk's return to Polish politics again.

This time the plan seems more advanced than the last fifty times we went through this routine (apparently he might take over the leadership of PO on an interim basis at a special meeting of the national executive on Wednesday) but I'll still believe it when I see it.

Reminder that PO is polling at 16%, behind both PiS and the guy off Poland's Got Talent.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

For some reason we're discussing Donald Tusk's return to Polish politics again.

This time the plan seems more advanced than the last fifty times we went through this routine (apparently he might take over the leadership of PO on an interim basis at a special meeting of the national executive on Wednesday) but I'll still believe it when I see it.

Reminder that PO is polling at 16%, behind both PiS and the guy off Poland's Got Talent.

That's a pretty bad polling position for PO...

[Astatine]

For some reason we're discussing Donald Tusk's return to Polish politics again.

This time the plan seems more advanced than the last fifty times we went through this routine (apparently he might take over the leadership of PO on an interim basis at a special meeting of the national executive on Wednesday) but I'll still believe it when I see it.

Reminder that PO is polling at 16%, behind both PiS and the guy off Poland's Got Talent.

Do you think support for Holownia will actually materialize or is it just a polling bubble that will pop just like with Nowoczesna?

Not an expert in Polish politics, but looking at how PO polled through its history, the party seems to be quite resilient in comparison to the one-hit-wonder parties centered around a single person (correct me if I am wrong). How would you evaluate PO's future prospects?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

For some reason we're discussing Donald Tusk's return to Polish politics again.

This time the plan seems more advanced than the last fifty times we went through this routine (apparently he might take over the leadership of PO on an interim basis at a special meeting of the national executive on Wednesday) but I'll still believe it when I see it.

Reminder that PO is polling at 16%, behind both PiS and the guy off Poland's Got Talent.

Do you think support for Holownia will actually materialize or is it just a polling bubble that will pop just like with Nowoczesna?

Not an expert in Polish politics, but looking at how PO polled through its history, the party seems to be quite resilient in comparison to the one-hit-wonder parties centered around a single person (correct me if I am wrong). How would you evaluate PO's future prospects?

Apologies for the late reply.

One of PO's greatest strengths at this point in time is that they have become - although it was always inevitable to some extent - an alliance of notables and local machines that happens to have a deadweight in the form of a parliamentary party attached. Now local strength is something Hołownia, unusually, is actually trying to build up by recruiting random local politicians, but he's a long way off replicating that strength. That does however show that Hołownia's clearly not a fool (or, more likely, has people who aren't fools advising him) and so might have an easier time sticking around unlike Nowoczesna, which was doomed to a large extent by its own leader. (Accounting errors did the rest)

I'd say PO's future prospects are uncertain at present partly because of the Tusk factor - the man is washed up but probably still knows how to push Polish liberals' buttons if nothing else, and might be able to take them back to second place (though I doubt he can expand beyond that). And of course, though its interests and precise social composition have changed over the decades, the existence of a hardcore neolib vote is probably still one of the few constants in Polish politics.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The mayoral by-election in the south-eastern city of Rzeszów, caused by the resignation of SLD genepool (expelled from the party for trying to ban a Pride parade in 2019) mayor and insane workaholic (among other things, he's 81 and presumably would have hung on as long as he could if he hadn't caught covid) Tadeusz Ferenc, who'd been in post since 2002, is apparently to be delayed until the 13th of June due to 'uncertainty' on whether covid cases will continue to fall. The election is seen as a test for the government because the Ziobro (hardcore Orbánista, willing to flirt with leaving the EU) tendency is running its own candidate. Coincidentally, a poll was just released today.

Konrad Fijołek (councillor for Ferenc's Development of Rzeszów local party, boring apparatchik endorsed by most of the opposition parties): 41.9%
Ewa Leniart (PiS governor of Podkarpackie Voivodeship, official PiS candidate): 24%
Marcin Warchoł (Ziobro tendency candidate, inexplicably endorsed by Ferenc, used to work for Palikot's Movement before seeing which way the wind was blowing): 16.6%
Grzegorz Braun (Konfederacja candidate, insane monarchist and plandemic guy): 11.2%
Undecided: 6.4%

As you can see, things are going great.

Couldn't be arsed posting this at the time because it's really much less relevant to people who don't live there than the media and the politicians would have had us believe, but this happened on the 13th and the result ended up being:

Fijołek 56.5%
Leniart 23.6%
Warchoł 10.7%
Braun 9.2%

Fijołek closed strongly by targeting the Ferenc diehards who kept Warchoł afloat, and undecideds probably broke for him. Turnout was 54%, surprisingly almost the same as it was at the 2018 local elections. Naturally we're now hearing about UNITING THE OPPOSITION again. A possibly relevant fact is that the last time the right won a local election in Rzeszów was, er, 1998. And at the other end, Ziobro got a bucket of sh!t thrown at him by PiS for splitting the right-wing vote, which doesn't make any sense either but I guess it's funny to see them fight.

[Astatine]

So, apparently Tusk is actually back this time.

[ElectionObserver]

It looks like it. The real question is can he shake things up and make PO capable of leading the country again?

https://twitter.com/FT/status/1411311084812832769