Polish Politics and Elections

[n1240]

Late Late projection for the polish vote is now 51-49 Duda. No diaspora votes included. If Duda loses it will be because of the votes from abroad.

Well, votes are now being counted on the official site.

Can you post the link.  I do not see anything

It's horribly designed, probably purposefully. If you click on a locality all the way down to the precint/poll level, you can see the results for said precinct/poll. Any higher and it's only the counted votes displayed. Someone has to run a scrape program to collect it all, and I'm not sure if there is an relatively fair media station out there who has run such a scrape.

https://wybory.gov.pl/prezydent20200628/pl/frekwencja/2/Koniec/pl

That is only the turnout page, not actual results ...

They actually have results published by each individual polling place as he said, this website appears to be tallying them up. In terms of outstanding vote there is around 14k in Warsaw, 27k in Kolobrzeg (43-32 Trzaskowski in R1), 22k in and around Zakopane (48-28 Duda R1), and 160k from Poles living in UK/Ireland/Belgium (mostly from UK, three UK polling places have reported and given around a 77-23 margin for Trzaskowski). Probably a few thousand other votes laying around that I don't feel like looking for. Final exit poll margin should be pretty accurate, with Duda winning by around 2.1% or so

[Tender Branson]

Late Late projection for the polish vote is now 51-49 Duda. No diaspora votes included. If Duda loses it will be because of the votes from abroad.

Well, votes are now being counted on the official site.

Can you post the link.  I do not see anything

It's horribly designed, probably purposefully. If you click on a locality all the way down to the precint/poll level, you can see the results for said precinct/poll. Any higher and it's only the counted votes displayed. Someone has to run a scrape program to collect it all, and I'm not sure if there is an relatively fair media station out there who has run such a scrape.

https://wybory.gov.pl/prezydent20200628/pl/frekwencja/2/Koniec/pl

That is only the turnout page, not actual results ...

They actually have results published by each individual polling place as he said, this website appears to be tallying them up. In terms of outstanding vote there is around 14k in Warsaw, 27k in Kolobrzeg (43-32 Trzaskowski in R1), 22k in and around Zakopane (48-28 Duda R1), and 160k from Poles living in UK/Ireland/Belgium (mostly from UK, three UK polling places have reported and given around a 77-23 margin for Trzaskowski). Probably a few thousand other votes laying around that I don't feel like looking for. Final exit poll margin should be pretty accurate, with Duda winning by around 2.1% or so

Interesting ...

According to this page, the DUDE leads by over 500.000 votes with 99.5% of precincts in.

This is over.

[Tender Branson]

Duda will likely receive 10.5 million votes.

That’s the 2nd highest amount after the 10.7 million for Lech Wałęsa in 1990, who received it with over 70% of the vote, not 51%.

[n1240]

Results are up on the Polish Election Commission site now

[jaichind]

With almost all votes counted, Duda wins 51.2-48.8

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

[Former President tack50]

exit poll by age

I thought the Polish youth leaned conservative and the old people were more left wing and not the other way around?

[Logical]

From a quick look at the results at county level, it seems that Poland's political divide is shifting from East-West to Rural-Urban. Duda is performing far better in the villages in the west even winning a few he did not in 2015 while performing worse in the medium to larger cities, narrowly losing Lublin where he won in 2015.

[H. Ross Peron]

Map seems to be down but there's a very good interactive map here: https://biqdata.wyborcza.pl/biqdata/7,159116,26124392,wynik-wyborow-prezydenckich-duda-czy-trzaskowski-sprawdz.html

[H. Ross Peron]

From a quick look at the results at county level, it seems that Poland's political divide is shifting from East-West to Rural-Urban. Duda is performing far better in the villages in the west even winning a few he did not in 2015 while performing worse in the medium to larger cities, narrowly losing Lublin where he won in 2015.

Rather fascinating that Duda has only won with six provinces (and hardly the most populous ones at that) and without winning any of the major cities.

[jaichind]

From a quick look at the results at county level, it seems that Poland's political divide is shifting from East-West to Rural-Urban. Duda is performing far better in the villages in the west even winning a few he did not in 2015 while performing worse in the medium to larger cities, narrowly losing Lublin where he won in 2015.

I suspect the salience of LGBT issue most likely is the cause of this and is actually breaking down the 1914 border salience a bit.

[CumbrianLefty]

Ah well, the bad guys win again.

[mgop]

Ah well, the bad guys win again.

well not really they are both right-wingers. and it's always nice to see disgusting donald tusk on the losing side.

[Tender Branson]

From a quick look at the results at county level, it seems that Poland's political divide is shifting from East-West to Rural-Urban. Duda is performing far better in the villages in the west even winning a few he did not in 2015 while performing worse in the medium to larger cities, narrowly losing Lublin where he won in 2015.

Rather fascinating that Duda has only won with six provinces (and hardly the most populous ones at that) and without winning any of the major cities.

Don’t tell Trump that ...

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

From a quick look at the results at county level, it seems that Poland's political divide is shifting from East-West to Rural-Urban. Duda is performing far better in the villages in the west even winning a few he did not in 2015 while performing worse in the medium to larger cities, narrowly losing Lublin where he won in 2015.

Rather fascinating that Duda has only won with six provinces (and hardly the most populous ones at that) and without winning any of the major cities.

He lost Masovia, which is pretty much a big WTF. Of course it was largely Warsaw that put Trzaskowski over the top, but so far the rest of the voivodeship always outvoted the capital.

I don't want to sound like somebody trying to spin the loss, because it was a loss for "my" side, and I do feel rather disappointed, but with some more time, Trzaskowski might've won. He entered the race, which was put on hold due to the lockdown, very late, and Duda has the advantage of campaigning for a long time.

[libertpaulian]

This election had a VERY strong Cruz vs. Beto feel.  The theocratic incumbent is ahead for most of the election season but gets a bit of a scare from the cool, handsome challenger in the final stretch.  However, incumbency and not being totally underwater in public approvals helps the incumbent barely stave off his opponent.

[Mike88]

The margin between Duda and Trzaskowski seems to be narrowing very, very slowly. Maybe the final margin could be something like 50.9% vs 49.1%.

[Logical]

Looks like Trzaskowski did not actually win Mazovia proper after all. The results for Mazovia on the official election page are combined with the expatriate and ships vote. If you take them out it becomes

Duda - 1,523,039 (50.78%)
Trzaskowski - 1,476,393 (49.22%)

[Person Man]

Do you think this election is the last gasp of a two party system that's about to dissolve into a Slavic Papal Chiefdom or the emergence of a truly Democratic Poland?

[RI]

God bless Poland.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

exit poll by age

I thought the Polish youth leaned conservative and the old people were more left wing and not the other way around?

Those young right-wingers you are mentioning usually consider PiS more left-wing than PO.

[Oryxslayer]

100% of the vote is here according to reports.

51.03 Duda
48.97 Trzaskowski

High turnout and population growth means that this is the most votes any PiS candidate and non-PiS candidate have ever received for president since the fall of the Soviet Union.

[Tender Branson]

100% of the vote is here according to reports.

51.03 Duda
48.97 Trzaskowski

High turnout and population growth means that this is the most votes any PiS candidate and non-PiS candidate have ever received for president since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Poland has no population growth ...

[Oryxslayer]

100% of the vote is here according to reports.

51.03 Duda
48.97 Trzaskowski

High turnout and population growth means that this is the most votes any PiS candidate and non-PiS candidate have ever received for president since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Poland has no population growth ...

Sure she is shrinking/stagnant now, but Poland has added at least 100K people since Lech Wałęsa was elected president, setting the all time high for earned votes. You also have the diaspora votes, which retains (mainly) those who have utilized Schengen for work.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

God bless Poland.

God, take your blessing somewhere else.